Let me introduce you to a novel new concept, emoticons: :smile::wink::biggrin:
:frown::redface::tongue::crying::cursing::love::scared:Also, some recommended reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law
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Stray Model X Production rationale posts
- Thread starter johnnyduval
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:frown::redface::tongue::crying::cursing::love::scared:Also, some recommended reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law
SebastianR
Active Member
I think this is something we can safely agree on: If you diminutively call wilful and deliberate fraud in millions of cases "being naughty" when it relates to a German company yet you defame an existing Tesla car as "vapoware" you project that you apply double standards in your judgement. Say what you want about Tesla, at least they are not as criminal as Audi & VW seem to be.
mikeash
Active Member
Well then, yes, you really need to work on your writing. Nothing about that looks anything like sarcasm to me. Saying "the Model 3 will cost $60,000" is not such an absurd statement that I can't imagine anyone would state it seriously. In fact, it sounds exactly like the sort of thing I'd expect a Tesla detractor to say, and mean it too.
Here is a something I suggest that you keep in mind when you post: your words will most likely be taken literally because readers do not know you personally, are not speaking to you face to face so cannot pick up on visual clues or mannerisms, and therefore are likely to take your words at face value.
You have received a lot of negative reactions in this thread because of your frequent use of exaggerations, hyperbole, and wildly off the mark characterizations. Yet you persist in doing so, all the while criticizing your audience for failing to understand you. There is a lesson there...
MrBoylan
Member
You can "image" such a scenario, but it will never happen. The biggest cost of an electric vehicle with a 200+ mile range is the battery. Nobody will be able to match Tesla's cost on batteries because the other auto makers will have to compete against each other to buy them from a 3rd party supplier that is trying to maximize its own profits. There is also the issue that an EV is superior to an ICE in almost every way. If other car companies offer a 200+ mile vehicle with 0-60 in under 6 seconds for $32,000 they will never sell another one of their ICE products again, and they can't afford to do that. Your attempts to poke holes in Tesla and to try to envision how other companies will beat them at their own game is falling flat. I do appreciate it though because it shows me just how strong Tesla's position is, and it shows me that the 3,000+ shares of stock I own are not enough. So thank you!
Plenty of people can make well-reasoned critical posts on this forum, and do so all the time. Even in this "Tesla worshipping forum". Problem is, you haven't, pulling out old discredited canards like "Tesla loses $4,000 on every sale" and then saying "just kidding" or "don't take me literally" every time you're called on it.
I mean, Musk himself said that perhaps the X shouldn't have been as complicated as it ended up, and has pinned many of the delays on its doors and--even more so--the middle-row seats. But if that was your argument, it got lost in a sea of invective and a refusal to use language as intended--not necessarily literally, but understandably. Sarcasm and hyperbole lose all power when no one can detect it. And if no one picks up on it, the problem isn't your audience, the problem is you.
But let me respond to the argument I THINK you are making--that the X was too complex and Tesla would've been served by simplifying things.
Fact is, the X is a detour to the company's ultimate goal--its mass-market 3. The S has garnered huge headlines by virtue of its power, range, and auto-pilot. The X had to build on that hype and continue to build Tesla's brand cachet, and Musk decided to do so with the falcon-wing doors. They are insanely eye-grabbing, and expect crowds wherever Xs show up in the wild. It's a thought that makes me cringe, as I'm an introvert, but it'll be the best marketing a car company can ever hope for--wonder.
As you yourself have pointed out, more competition is on its way, so what will drive greater brand awareness, a RAV4-looking CUV that happens to be electric, or the HOLY SMOKES WHAT IS THAT effect that the X will generate? If you want a car company that simply swaps out drivetrains of existing cars, then Tesla isn't for you. If that's what you want, you might as well wait for everyone to catch up. Or at least offer an electric variant of the same-ol', same-ol'.
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Imagine a scenario where no one can meet that $32,000 target because they can't procure the batteries at scale or at that price. Imagine a scenario where the world blows up and there's no one around to buy Teslas! We can throw out random scenarios all day long, not sure how that advances the conversation. If it was that easy to build a cheap electric car, people would be doing it already. Tesla has had to build an entire massive battery factory to get the necessary scale. No one else is doing the same at this time.
But aside from making up fake imagined threats, there is another problem with your argument: if people bought on price alone, high-priced cars wouldn't exist, or iPhones, or fancy restaurants, or first-class seats. It's easy to see Tesla commanding a price premium based on brand halo and loyalty, supercharger network, superior technology, and superior car quality. I mean, tesla is already crushing the incumbents on safety, something that powered Volvo sales for generations.
We we can come up with alternate scenarios all day long--the most likely I could see is Apple pulling off their car and eating into Tesla's natural customer base--but for now, the most obvious scenarios all have Tesla enjoying incredible first-mover advantages and a level of innovation objectively unmatched by any other incumbent car maker.
I mean, Musk himself said that perhaps the X shouldn't have been as complicated as it ended up, and has pinned many of the delays on its doors and--even more so--the middle-row seats. But if that was your argument, it got lost in a sea of invective and a refusal to use language as intended--not necessarily literally, but understandably. Sarcasm and hyperbole lose all power when no one can detect it. And if no one picks up on it, the problem isn't your audience, the problem is you.
But let me respond to the argument I THINK you are making--that the X was too complex and Tesla would've been served by simplifying things.
Fact is, the X is a detour to the company's ultimate goal--its mass-market 3. The S has garnered huge headlines by virtue of its power, range, and auto-pilot. The X had to build on that hype and continue to build Tesla's brand cachet, and Musk decided to do so with the falcon-wing doors. They are insanely eye-grabbing, and expect crowds wherever Xs show up in the wild. It's a thought that makes me cringe, as I'm an introvert, but it'll be the best marketing a car company can ever hope for--wonder.
As you yourself have pointed out, more competition is on its way, so what will drive greater brand awareness, a RAV4-looking CUV that happens to be electric, or the HOLY SMOKES WHAT IS THAT effect that the X will generate? If you want a car company that simply swaps out drivetrains of existing cars, then Tesla isn't for you. If that's what you want, you might as well wait for everyone to catch up. Or at least offer an electric variant of the same-ol', same-ol'.
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Imagine a scenario where no one can meet that $32,000 target because they can't procure the batteries at scale or at that price. Imagine a scenario where the world blows up and there's no one around to buy Teslas! We can throw out random scenarios all day long, not sure how that advances the conversation. If it was that easy to build a cheap electric car, people would be doing it already. Tesla has had to build an entire massive battery factory to get the necessary scale. No one else is doing the same at this time.
But aside from making up fake imagined threats, there is another problem with your argument: if people bought on price alone, high-priced cars wouldn't exist, or iPhones, or fancy restaurants, or first-class seats. It's easy to see Tesla commanding a price premium based on brand halo and loyalty, supercharger network, superior technology, and superior car quality. I mean, tesla is already crushing the incumbents on safety, something that powered Volvo sales for generations.
We we can come up with alternate scenarios all day long--the most likely I could see is Apple pulling off their car and eating into Tesla's natural customer base--but for now, the most obvious scenarios all have Tesla enjoying incredible first-mover advantages and a level of innovation objectively unmatched by any other incumbent car maker.
I was trying to be polite, and I will continue to make an effort in that regard, but this time will explicitly state the "lesson" after reiterating the following:
You have received a lot of negative reactions in this thread because of your frequent use of exaggerations, hyperbole, and wildly off the mark characterizations. Yet you persist in doing so, all the while criticizing your audience for failing to understand you.
So the lesson is; when presenting your point of view, avoid gross exaggeration and hyperbole, instead focus on clarity of language and factual statements while avoiding demeaning remarks belittling your intended audience.
I am so jealous right now. Not really jealous, but I wish I could be in possession of that many shares. I think the closest I'll get to owning TSLA for a while is the model 3, after student loans, but wow!
Wow. Did I actually see someone back up their argument by boasting that they owned $750,000 of Tesla stocks. Really?
As it would not have been sufficient to say "its shows me that the shares of stock I own are not enough" and left it like that?
I feel embarrassed just reading that.
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You had me at hello. I was indeed fully aware what you meant by "the lesson" the first time you wrote it. My retort was a quip.
As it would not have been sufficient to say "its shows me that the shares of stock I own are not enough" and left it like that?
I feel embarrassed just reading that.
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You had me at hello. I was indeed fully aware what you meant by "the lesson" the first time you wrote it. My retort was a quip.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
There have been naysayers that claim the Model 3 will end up costing $60k not $35k. Your claim was exactly like those naysayers, to the dollar:
https://www.inverse.com/article/801...-s-tesla-model-3-might-cost-60-000-not-35-000
Being sensible for a moment, the problem with the discussions here are people are dressing up opinions as facts. I have been throwing around some "what if" scenarios - and they are hardly "what if a meteor fell on Califonia" but people seem to have their fixed opinions and will twist the limited facts to suit their argument.
We will not know if Tesla is a success or failure as an EV manufacturer until a few years down the road, unless you want to declare them a success now in 2015 which would seem a little premature with 100,000 of their cars on the road and not being profitable. I am not sure what the measure of "success" is exactly but perhaps something like selling the 500,000 per annum target and being profitable? We will not know that until 2020 and beyond so everything discussed on this forum about the future is by definition speculation.
There ARE some current facts such as "Tesla has sold 100,000 cars" and then people are adopting these facts to argue their own case. If you are bullish about Tesla then the 100,000 sales is a fantastic achievement, it proves they have cracked all the problems, it proves viability etc. If you are a doubter then 100,000 sales in 5 years proves the cars are fiendishly difficult to make, that they are very expensive to build and sell, and that the EV market is tiny. There is some merit to both of these arguments.......but of course everyone sticks too firmly to one side or the other.
I am actually playing the Devil's Advocate here because this is a forum for discussion and speculation. If it was only facts I wanted then I would go and read the shareholders report. I have a Tesla X on order and am looking forward to delivery. It is not going to be a perfect car but I think a great option for me. Would be nice to know what it is going to cost in €uros and to see specifications direct from Tesla rather than via a forum.....I find that side of their marketing rather frustrating and frankly amateurish.
I also find it frustrating that people here are dressing up their speculations as FACTS. Here are a few choice examples I will quickly cut and paste from this thread:
It seems if the poster writes in a more formal and verbose manner that it is permissable to dress up your speculation as fact and it is instantly accepted. Ideally if you can add the value of your personal shareholdings and the exact model of Tesla you already own then this also adds validity to your posts and turns a speculation into a fact.
I shall henceforth endeavour to adopt a more grandiloquent style to offset my earlier griffonage.
We will not know if Tesla is a success or failure as an EV manufacturer until a few years down the road, unless you want to declare them a success now in 2015 which would seem a little premature with 100,000 of their cars on the road and not being profitable. I am not sure what the measure of "success" is exactly but perhaps something like selling the 500,000 per annum target and being profitable? We will not know that until 2020 and beyond so everything discussed on this forum about the future is by definition speculation.
There ARE some current facts such as "Tesla has sold 100,000 cars" and then people are adopting these facts to argue their own case. If you are bullish about Tesla then the 100,000 sales is a fantastic achievement, it proves they have cracked all the problems, it proves viability etc. If you are a doubter then 100,000 sales in 5 years proves the cars are fiendishly difficult to make, that they are very expensive to build and sell, and that the EV market is tiny. There is some merit to both of these arguments.......but of course everyone sticks too firmly to one side or the other.
I am actually playing the Devil's Advocate here because this is a forum for discussion and speculation. If it was only facts I wanted then I would go and read the shareholders report. I have a Tesla X on order and am looking forward to delivery. It is not going to be a perfect car but I think a great option for me. Would be nice to know what it is going to cost in €uros and to see specifications direct from Tesla rather than via a forum.....I find that side of their marketing rather frustrating and frankly amateurish.
I also find it frustrating that people here are dressing up their speculations as FACTS. Here are a few choice examples I will quickly cut and paste from this thread:
It seems if the poster writes in a more formal and verbose manner that it is permissable to dress up your speculation as fact and it is instantly accepted. Ideally if you can add the value of your personal shareholdings and the exact model of Tesla you already own then this also adds validity to your posts and turns a speculation into a fact.
I shall henceforth endeavour to adopt a more grandiloquent style to offset my earlier griffonage.
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Good morning Johnny! It's hard to have a debate with someone who is on a significantly different time zone....
Have you owned a Tesla yet, or will the X be your first? I ask because I bought my first Tesla in early 2013 to replace my Porsche 911S (991 series). I was immediately blown away by how much better the Tesla was than the Porsche. I immediately started learning more about Elon and the company, and realized that I was close to ground zero on the next Microsoft/Apple/Google which I had all missed as in investor. I started going in big early. I started buying stock at 50. I didn't hint at how much stock I own to brag, but only to say that I have significant skin in the game. We get a lot of trolls on this forum who talk a big game, claim that Tesla has no chance, etc., but I doubt many of them are backing up their statements with their money (in other words, are shorting the stock in a significant manner). I was only pointing out that I put my money where my mouth is. The only thing I worry about now that could derail Tesla is a major Earthquake or Terrorist attack at the plant. There are a lot of smart people in the world, but if you look into Elon's accomplishments, even before PayPal, you realize that he is much smarter, and has a much better ability to see a need to create a product where there is none, than almost anyone else on the planet. Few people really have the ability to legitimately judge what he can accomplish (although it is fun to try).
There is another side to the EV revolution that drivers who do not yet own an EV don't understand. You have gone to a gas station your entire life. It is as much of life/reality as having to go to the bathroom, and you don't think twice about it. After a year, or probably sooner, of owning an EV, you realize that you will NEVER buy a vehicle that requires a trip to a refueling station again (a big reason why Hydrogen cars will fail). The lease on my wife's Leaf expires Jan 6th. We have been trying to figure out what we are going to do now that we learned that the 90D version won't be produced until they have built most/all of the P90Ds on order, and it could easily be 6 months or more. We have a very nice, fully loaded Jeep Grand Cherokee that we use to pull the boat. The rest of the time, the Jeep sits unused. The Leaf is not a very nice car, but after 2 years with the Leaf my wife would do ANYTHING to not have to drive the more expensive and "luxurious" Jeep for 6-9 months while she waits for the X. At Thanksgiving, I was talking about our options with my family (non of which own an EV), and I could tell they were trying to understand the problem, but probably thought we are crazy for not just using the Jeep. EVs are the future because the convenience of refueling at home while you sleep is priceless. Also the beauty of instant, smooth acceleration without a transmission changing gears is wonderful. So BMW, Audi, GM all getting into building EVs are not a threat to Tesla, but to ICE vehicles. The % of cars that are going to be EV is going to grow rapidly now, and there is plenty of business for everyone that builds a Tesla-like product.
Again of course that is just an opinion. Other things that other people *might* worry about in relation to Tesla operations *might* be:
1. The Model 3 comes in much much too late. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
2. The Model 3 comes in way overbudget forcing up the sale price to much higher levels. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
3. The stockmarket catches a cold. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
4. A competitor comes in with a better and cheaper alternative to the Model 3. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
5. Something dreadful happens to Elon Musk. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could......and even in your words he is the Steve Jobs of Tesla.
6. The government pulls all current and future subsidies for the EV market, both for manufacturers and punters. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
7. New battery technology makes the Gigabit plant redundant overnight and everyone switches to a new battery design based on XYZ that charges in 30 seconds. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
That is just a quick 7 of the top of my head, there are probably more. I therefore think that narrowing the potential pitfalls down to only terrorists and earthquakes is just a little too optimistic.
EV's are the future - I totally 100% agree. I think it will actually not be legal to even purchase an ICE car in 20 years time (that was a recent prediction from Richard Branson).
Where you and I differ is how we get there. I personally do not think that Tesla has the massive first mover advantage that you think they do. Living in Munich I do know some people in car manufacturing. Elon is a smart guy, but there is potential competition out there and TESLA cannot afford too much to go wrong in their 5-10 year plan.
p.s. If we asked the average man in the street if Aston Martin was a successful car manufacturer I suspect most would say YES? But the truth is that Aston Martin have gone bust at least 7 times in their history. The guy that makes money from a golf course is usually the 2nd or 3rd owner. In the case of TESLA I am confident someone will be making a TESLA branded EV in 20 years time because the brand already has value......but whether the route involves Chapter 11 and debt writeoffs along the way, or buyouts - only time will tell.
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Well, when you come up with a list of things that could happen, you have to take into account the likely hood of them actually happening and their ability to cause Tesla to fail. In my opinion, which could obviously be wrong, 1-4 and 6 are a non-issue. I think if 5 was to happen, Tesla is far enough along now to survive. 7 is also a non-issue because I'm sure the plant can change to new battery designs just as easily as any other plant in the world. That is why I believe that the only real threat to Tesla at this point is destruction of the plant itself....
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It would appear that by your definition, anything that you write is intended as speculation, sarcasm, exaggeration, etc. and anything that anyone else writes is always intended as fact. You my friend are a spin-doctor, constantly quoting people out of context, and thus not worth having a discussion with. Clearly you enjoy pushing people's buttons. My advice to others, don't feed the wild-life.
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