Stray Model X Production rationale posts

[johnnyduval]

@Vandacca. Thanks for the troll accusation again.

In your opinion my comments are not worthy of discussion. There is a very wide choice of other threads on this forum so no need for you to dirty your hands in this one ever again.

If I was a proper troll I would be off posting in every thread of the forum and roaming free. I am not.

 

[BornToFly]

The only other thing I truly worry about now, is the rumor that Tesla wants the Model 3 to have a drag coefficient under 0.2.
If the design is ugly in order to achieve an extreme aero number, Tesla will fail. I could sell most or all of my stock after the reveal in March if I don't like the design....

 

[johnnyduval]

Let's be fair - the Nissan Leaf is hardly a looker and the Toyota Prius also fell out the ugly tree, so as it happens that does not fit anywhere into my Top 20 risks for the company!

I am pretty sure it will simply be an 80% shrunk down Model S.

 

[BornToFly]

Johnny,
If you had come onto the forum and said I have an X on order, I'm interested in Tesla, but I wonder what you guys think of the following concerns I have regarding their ability to achieve long term success, things would have gone a little more smoothly. :wink:

I've enjoyed your thread because it makes me look into the bear arguments (again!), and it makes me feel better about my investment in the company (which 99% of advisers would say is much to high a % of my portfolio).

 

[johnnyduval]

If you had come onto the forum and said I have an X on order, I'm interested in Tesla, but I wonder what you guys think of the following concerns I have regarding their ability to achieve long term success, things would have gone a little more smoothly

You assume I wanted smooth?

 

[vandacca]

@Vandacca. Thanks for the troll accusation again.

In your opinion my comments are not worthy of discussion. There is a very wide choice of other threads on this forum so no need for you to dirty your hands in this one ever again.

If I was a proper troll I would be off posting in every thread of the forum and roaming free. I am not.

Thank you for validating my earlier post. I never mentioned anything about the worthiness of your comments for discussion, nor did I ever call you a troll. You not only implied I said things that I did not, you also twisted and spun the conversation someplace you wanted to go for your own purposes. Clearly you have an agenda - what it is, I don't know and I no longer care, as this will be my last post in this thread (and I sincerely thank you for not posting in other threads).

Just because you mix a few valid points with outrageous statements, it doesn't make everything you write valid. A reasonable discussion cannot be had with someone who makes stuff up on the fly and twists the words of others. You have taken a little input from this community and fabricated your own story.

 

[johnnyduval]

Dang. I must have totally misunderstood:

don't feed the wild-life.

And now you are never going to post here again and I will never know what it means.

Double Dang. I did a quote thingie so it was probably out of context and "don't feed the wild-life." is actually a compliment that means "have a nice day" or something.

But we shall never know.......

p.s. Does anyone know what "thus not worth having a discussion with" means in post #100 'cos I just keep misunderstanding stuff today. I thought maybe it meant "my comments are not worthy of discussion" but it doesn't apparently.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Again of course that is just an opinion. Other things that other people *might* worry about in relation to Tesla operations *might* be:

1. The Model 3 comes in much much too late. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.

2. The Model 3 comes in way overbudget forcing up the sale price to much higher levels. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.

3. The stockmarket catches a cold. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.

4. A competitor comes in with a better and cheaper alternative to the Model 3. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.

5. Something dreadful happens to Elon Musk. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could......and even in your words he is the Steve Jobs of Tesla.

6. The government pulls all current and future subsidies for the EV market, both for manufacturers and punters. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.

7. New battery technology makes the Gigabit plant redundant overnight and everyone switches to a new battery design based on XYZ that charges in 30 seconds. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.

That is just a quick 7 of the top of my head, there are probably more. I therefore think that narrowing the potential pitfalls down to only terrorists and earthquakes is just a little too optimistic.

Well, when you come up with a list of things that could happen, you have to take into account the likely hood of them actually happening and their ability to cause Tesla to fail. In my opinion, which could obviously be wrong, 1-4 and 6 are a non-issue. I think if 5 was to happen, Tesla is far enough along now to survive. 7 is also a non-issue because I'm sure the plant can change to new battery designs just as easily as any other plant in the world. That is why I believe that the only real threat to Tesla at this point is destruction of the plant itself....

I agree with you.

My risk assessment would be:

Event:	Probability:	Consequence:	Risk (PxC):
1	Medium (2)	Medium (2)	4
2	Low (1)	High (3)	3
3	Medium (2)	Low (1)	2
4	Low (1)	Medium (2)	2
5	Low (1)	Medium (2)	2
6	Low (1)	Low (1)	1
7	Low (1)	Low (1)	1
Terror	Low (1)	Low (1)	1
Quake	Low (1)	High (3)	3

None of the risks are off-putting, but an earthquake and Model 3 execution would be my top worries.

 

[johnnyduval]

Nice analysis. I am no expert on the maths of risk......but in theory I assume if there are lots of LOW risks all at the same time, then as an "insurer" or "stockholder" in theory they kinda add up?

i.e. We have maybe 5 x low risks, 2 x very low and 2 x medium risks all concurrent.

And I agree that none of the risks are off-putting as the buyer of a car, or even a small investor.......but would I bet the farm on Tesla? - personally I think not.

For me it's more about the maths than earthquakes. Cash is king in business. You can have the best damn business in the world but if you run out of cash you are screwed. Likewise if you have a bottomless pit of money you can survive 10 earthquakes.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Nice analysis. I am no expert on the maths of risk......but in theory I assume if there are lots of LOW risks all at the same time, then as an "insurer" or "stockholder" in theory they kinda add up?

i.e. We have maybe 5 x low risks, 2 x very low and 2 x medium risks all concurrent.

They would add up, but my quick and dirty analysis doesn't have anywhere near the required resolution to say anything about the total risk. I would say the chance of a terror attack at a Tesla facility to be about 0.001%, while Musk dying in the next 5 years might be more in the area of 5%, but I set them both as low.

This kind of analysis is more for prioritizing and preparing for various scenarios.

 

[Discoducky]

Risks are called out very nicely in the shareholder letter here: http://ir.teslamotors.com/releases.cfm

I'd agree that Model 3 execution is the top worry, followed closely by Tesla Energy execution as they should have released something already, but the others are fairly distant in terms of likelihood or probability; still a concern, but distant.

Keeping my fingers crossed that March brings an announcement that results in strong demand and something that I want to buy.

 

[hockeythug]

How is any of this related to Model X production?

Edit: I know see this is the designated Model S "snippiness" thread.

 

[johnnyduval]

@hockeythug

Sorry it's pretty much my fault. I started in another thread and then things got a bit excitable and off-topic, so the mods quickly chucked my posts into this little sandpit. The thread was supposed to then quickly die, but I'm still here

It's all a bit random - so you may find the wealth of other sensible threads more suitable. And no I don't own this thread - but it's my fault it exists!

Ideally it should be renamed "Ramblings of the Euro Troll" or something.

 

[hockeythug]

@hockeythug

Sorry it's pretty much my fault. I started in another thread and then things got a bit excitable and off-topic, so the mods quickly chucked my posts into this little sandpit. The thread was supposed to then quickly die, but I'm still here

It's all a bit random - so you may find the wealth of other sensible threads more suitable. And no I don't own this thread - but it's my fault it exists!

Ideally it should be renamed "Ramblings of the Euro Troll" or something.

If you want to talk about and learn more about Tesla the company you are more than welcome to join us in the investor section.

 

[johnnyduval]

Thanks but I dont wanna upset @vandacca 'cos he wants me to stay in my kennel. But you are more than welcome to join us here in the errrrr.......pointless troll section?

 

[SW2Fiddler]

You assume I wanted smooth?

It would be tedious for every post to begin with a disclaimer, either "What follows is the opinion of the member and not observed phenomena yet," or for Duvalisms, "What follows may have been pre-amplified to emphasize concepts for transmission, or to entertain and incentivize keeping the comm line open."

But I can add such as subtext while I read... Hang on.
Recalibrating...

All righty then, now enjoying this discussion a bajillion percent more.

It has value! But it was admittedly pushing my buttons until I learned how to read it. It swerves in and out of the "Meta" lane. I have a high tolerance for Meta though.
If I have a strong reaction to an expressed idea, my first piece of homework is to take a look at my reaction. The best outcome of that is to learn something more about my own spins, tilts, ballast, lenses and filters. And the very least that happens is that I get a clue that I HAVE a button there...

Now, should I click "post" or just keep my little introspective grow-up Meta Moment to myself...

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Nice analysis. I am no expert on the maths of risk......but in theory I assume if there are lots of LOW risks all at the same time, then as an "insurer" or "stockholder" in theory they kinda add up?

i.e. We have maybe 5 x low risks, 2 x very low and 2 x medium risks all concurrent.

And I agree that none of the risks are off-putting as the buyer of a car, or even a small investor.......but would I bet the farm on Tesla? - personally I think not.

For me it's more about the maths than earthquakes. Cash is king in business. You can have the best damn business in the world but if you run out of cash you are screwed. Likewise if you have a bottomless pit of money you can survive 10 earthquakes.

Yes, there are many concurrent risks facing Tesla ahead. That's why the stock is currently $200 and not $1000, which is what it will be if and when Tesla moves past those risks and delivers on its goals. As an investor, you have to assess your own risk tolerance before investing. If you wait until all the risks are past then you will have missed the move up.

 

[Ugliest1]

@hockeythug

Sorry it's pretty much my fault. I started in another thread and then things got a bit excitable and off-topic, so the mods quickly chucked my posts into this little sandpit. The thread was supposed to then quickly die, but I'm still here

It's all a bit random - so you may find the wealth of other sensible threads more suitable. And no I don't own this thread - but it's my fault it exists!

Ideally it should be renamed "Ramblings of the Euro Troll" or something.

I actually really enjoyed this post, the irony and humour came across well. The earlier discussions, not so much.

Recalibrating...

And I'm now recalibrated.

 

[johnnyduval]

Ths thread has made me think about my Tesla X order of course. I am very late to the party and only reserved back in Spring 2015 (i.e. yesterday compared to the older members).

They said Spring 2016 delivery and I did ask very politely (yes I know that may sound surprising) if that was a realistic Spring 2016 'cos if it was gonna slip waaaaay past that time I might consider getting a Model S or another car altogether. They assured me it was realistic. Fine.

Fast forward to the present day and remember I am in Germany. Realistically if I choose to go P90D configuration what are we really looking at for delivery? I reckon around *maybe* September 2016 but it could be much later. Poor old "Bonnie" with order #2 is looking at January 2016 and even that isn't confirmed.

Imagine if I want the 90D. Ho ho ho. Spring 2017 perhaps by the time they have delivered to the USA back orders?

Also I have been given no prices or configurator, so even with a firm order I am feeling pretty switched off and sniffing about to change my car to something else whilst I wait. Fortunately my current car functions, so no pressure - just feeling Tesla deflated I guess. I bet the guys that put deposits down 3 years ago and want a 90D are proper pissed off!!! I'm just a bit "meh" about it.

 

[bonnie]

Poor old "Bonnie" with order #2 is looking at January 2016 and even that isn't confirmed.

-eye roll- Speak to your own feelings . Nothing 'poor me' about this situation. I'm good.