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Tesla is not a perfect company, nor does it try to be. Elon doesn't appear to be afraid of making mistakes, and when he does, he quickly tries to fix it. Tesla has shown the ability to quickly pivot and address issues/mistakes as necessary. For example, the onboard AC charger and the folding seats. It's precisely the fear of failing that has paralyzed the traditional automotive manufacturer into doing nothing for so long.
However, when it comes to the falcon doors, I'm reserving judgement until I have been using them for a few months. They do look cool, but I'm an understated type of guy and I don't like to drive around in a flashy car. My wife would be embarrassed to open those doors at the grocery store. I've been indifferent about the doors until now, but I do admit that they may have a potential to be huge. I like to compare them to the iPad. When Steve Jobs announced the iPad, no one got it and it was ridiculed by all the tech journalist. But once consumers started using it, everyone understood the impact and it was a huge success. So much so, that consumers don't feel the need to upgrade them every year and it has caused a drop in sales due to quickly reaching a saturation point.
The falcon doors may provide the functionality of a mini-van sliding door without the ugly, boxy look. No one today can predict if the falcon doors will be a hit or miss. We will have to wait until it's in consumer's hands before we know if it was a good or bad idea. I'm leaning towards it being a hit, but I'll be the first to point out when Tesla missteps. Not because I want them to fail, but because I want them to succeed.
Speak to your own feelings :smile:. Nothing 'poor me' about this situation. I'm good.
@traxila - You know how it is in business. Much easier to copy than to truly innovate. Tesla have been taking all the risks - but the others will now be able to follow their path.
Imagine for a moment if one of the others are actually full-steam ahead making their version of the Tesla 3 series......someone the size of Toyota or Apple? Don't let's pretend it cannot be done as Tesla has already shown a startup can make electric cars.
I was afraid to comment on this myself for fear of being gunned down in a hail of forum bullets. But I was also wondering if I could train the kids to enter the car from the boot so that I wouldn't have those doors going up and down in public. Too much like wearing gold chains for my personal tastes......but will be fine in a couple of years once everyone has tired of seeing them.
Good things come to those who wait.
2. Apple has a chance if they can figure out how to manufacture vehicles - or - more likely - buy a last century ICE automaker with some of that cash hoard they have, or partner with a Chinese manufacturer since they're used to dealing with the Chinese to make their tiny "i" products in what are essentially sweatshops with substandard pay compared to what people earn in the first world.
I predict we'll see 300K-400K Model 3's sold just to past or present Tesla owners.
Falcon doors
The only concern I have about the falcon wing doors is long-term reliability of a new, unproven, technology. For that reason, I am going to email Tesla to request that the Model X falcon wing doors be added to the 8-year, unlimited miles warranty for the battery and drive train. I suggest that other people who have either ordered or reserved a Model X do the same.
As an individual TSLA investor since early 2012, this is how I see the value of the Model X falcon wing doors:
- When falcon wing doors are opened in any parking lot, they will attract the attention of everyone within eyesight because they will be visible above all the other parked vehicles.
- Several interested people will approach the Model X to see what it is.
- Tesla Time!! http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/12029-The-Tesla-Time-Question. Owners like myself will carry a flyer or business card to handout to interested parties. A flyer might just look like the one below with an added QR code that links to http://teslamotors.com/modelx I'm emailing Tesla to suggest that our vehicles be delivered with flyers or a box of business cards that we can handout. I'm sure they will pay for themselves. The main purpose is to minimize Tesla Time and be able to go on your way without having to answer a bunch of questions.
- Some of the interested parties will check out the website.
- Some of those people who can afford an X will go to a Tesla Store for a test drive.
- Some of those people will order an X!
- TSLA sales and cashflow to put towards Model 3 and Model Y, factory expansion and GigaFactory construction will continue to increase.
- TSLA price will increase over time...
- Goto step 1 and repeat.
The only concern I have about the falcon wing doors is long-term reliability of a new, unproven, technology. For that reason, I am going to email Tesla to request that the Model X falcon wing doors be added to the 8-year, unlimited miles warranty for the battery and drive train. I suggest that other people who have either ordered or reserved a Model X do the same.
Yup. That Audi Q6 e-tron is sure looking good.
Yup. That Audi Q6 e-tron is sure looking good.
I assume you have seen the rumours swirling around the internet that the Billionaire Chinese backer of Future Faraday is just a front for Apple? I have not the slightest idea if true or not - but if you google there is lots of stuff flying around. Apple has as close to a bottomless pit of money that I can imagine.
Don't get me wrong. I have no doubt that EV cars are the future. I also have no doubt that sales in the next 5-10 years will increase massively in the sector as a % - which is easy 'cos it's tiny. In the USA for 2015 new car sales for all electric were 0.4% of registrations. If you include hybrids it races up to 0.62%.
Indeed I have little doubt that if Tesla present a functioning Model 3 on time, on budget and with the ability to physically manufacture them they can sell 500,000 a year worldwide.
My concerns are their ability to hit the timings, budgets and production issues without any pitfalls. They may well do it, but I would not sink my kids inheritance into the company right now. It also remains to be seen if Tesla has entered the market too early or exactly on time for mass market profitability. But at the right price and availability I don't see sales as the issue.
Again as far as the operation of the doors on the car go I am pretty much indifferent. I would prefer normal doors myself, but it's really no big deal for me either way as long as they open and close. I can handle a little embarrassment as long as they work. My issue is that I think they added time and complexity that was just not needed, and in my humble opinion many people would have been happy to get the product 12 months earlier but with boring doors. As long as they work I don't actually care anymore - the door drama is history.
<<snip>>
Poor old "Customer #3" is looking at January 2016 and even that isn't confirmed.
Consolidation is a good bet, I don't see BMW going away anytime soon as they are really trying to transform (I'm not terribly impressed with the i3 or i8, but they are the best to hit the road yet IMO) with the Moses Lake carbon fiber plant being a big investment to get away from heavier materials.nope all german car manufacturers will be next Nokia, all will be dead in 5-10 years
we all know it
nope all german car manufacturers will be next Nokia, all will be dead in 5-10 years
we all know it
If other car companies offer a 200+ mile vehicle with 0-60 in under 6 seconds for $32,000 they will never sell another one of their ICE products again, and they can't afford to do that.
I assume you have seen the rumours swirling around the internet that the Billionaire Chinese backer of Future Faraday is just a front for Apple? I have not the slightest idea if true or not - but if you google there is lots of stuff flying around. Apple has as close to a bottomless pit of money that I can imagine.
I have not the slightest idea if true or not
Was that not disclaimer enough? I'll say again (maybe bold will help) - I have not the slightest idea if true or not
But the rumours are swirling around google and news reels and I didn't make 'em. So "this rumour of yours" - is not MY rumour.
But as it happens I would also think this is NOT Apple in disguise from the sound of things. But they do wanna make electric cars,
so I guess just another competitor that will 100% fail for the true believers.
Yeh I do think it all hinges on the Model 3. I have not studied the maths but I assume the Gigafactory and everything else is geared around mass sales of the Model 3.......in other words if TESLA's future depended 100% ONLY on the S and X it would go pop overnight.
So as I am new and ignorant. We get the reveal in March 2016, they then get 100,000 reservations.......BUT........what are the current predictions for when you can actually walk into a showroom, pay your money, and drive one away like an ICE car?
It's like for me you cannot actually BUY a Model X until 2017. 2016 is sold out.
I am sure the Model 3 will get 100,000 reservations without trying very hard based on a $35,000 price......I think it sells. It's more about time to market.....'cos I really don't think the rest of the world are twiddling their fingers.
Or put it this way as well. TESLA spent a lot of time on the S and the X and even know spending a lot of time trying to get the X made. There is an argument that says it would be EASIER to start with a clean sheet and just be making a Model 3 - which scarily might just be what one of the competion are doing RIGHT NOW with no S or X baggage to worry about.
To some degree the TESLA popularity will also be a problem in the Model 3 if they cannot produce in volume for 12 months after release......it leaves room for the competitors 'cos an electric car you can actually BUY is better than an electric car that you can only reserve. Basically the exact reverse of the current situation. At the moment you buy a TESLA as it is the only decent EV you can get.
If there was a slightly crapper Model X available tomorrow I would buy that rather than wait another 15 months for a P90D here in Europe.
One chef already has a Michelin restaurant and is building his second Michelin restaurant and is planning to open up some Red Lobster type joints in a few years. Another to-be-chef is learning how not to cut his fingers when preparing food. Who do you think have a better chance to have some restaurant joints first?