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Viral Value of Falcon Wing Doors for TSLA / 8 Year Warranty Desired

As an individual TSLA investor since early 2012, this is how I see the value of the Model X falcon wing doors:

  1. When falcon wing doors are opened in any parking lot, they will attract the attention of everyone within eyesight because they will be visible above all the other parked vehicles.
  2. Several interested people will approach the Model X to see what it is.
  3. Tesla Time!! http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/12029-The-Tesla-Time-Question. Owners like myself will carry a flyer or business card to handout to interested parties. A flyer might just look like the one below with an added QR code that links to http://teslamotors.com/modelx I'm emailing Tesla to suggest that our vehicles be delivered with flyers or a box of business cards that we can handout. I'm sure they will pay for themselves. The main purpose is to minimize Tesla Time and be able to go on your way without having to answer a bunch of questions.
  4. Some of the interested parties will check out the website.
  5. Some of those people who can afford an X will go to a Tesla Store for a test drive.
  6. Some of those people will order an X!
  7. TSLA sales and cashflow to put towards Model 3 and Model Y, factory expansion and GigaFactory construction will continue to increase.
  8. TSLA price will increase over time... :)
  9. Goto step 1 and repeat.

The only concern I have about the falcon wing doors is long-term reliability of a new, unproven, technology. For that reason, I am going to email Tesla to request that the Model X falcon wing doors be added to the 8-year, unlimited miles warranty for the battery and drive train. I suggest that other people who have either ordered or reserved a Model X do the same.

Model X Page 1.JPG


Tesla is not a perfect company, nor does it try to be. Elon doesn't appear to be afraid of making mistakes, and when he does, he quickly tries to fix it. Tesla has shown the ability to quickly pivot and address issues/mistakes as necessary. For example, the onboard AC charger and the folding seats. It's precisely the fear of failing that has paralyzed the traditional automotive manufacturer into doing nothing for so long.

However, when it comes to the falcon doors, I'm reserving judgement until I have been using them for a few months. They do look cool, but I'm an understated type of guy and I don't like to drive around in a flashy car. My wife would be embarrassed to open those doors at the grocery store. I've been indifferent about the doors until now, but I do admit that they may have a potential to be huge. I like to compare them to the iPad. When Steve Jobs announced the iPad, no one got it and it was ridiculed by all the tech journalist. But once consumers started using it, everyone understood the impact and it was a huge success. So much so, that consumers don't feel the need to upgrade them every year and it has caused a drop in sales due to quickly reaching a saturation point.

The falcon doors may provide the functionality of a mini-van sliding door without the ugly, boxy look. No one today can predict if the falcon doors will be a hit or miss. We will have to wait until it's in consumer's hands before we know if it was a good or bad idea. I'm leaning towards it being a hit, but I'll be the first to point out when Tesla missteps. Not because I want them to fail, but because I want them to succeed.
 
Speak to your own feelings :smile:. Nothing 'poor me' about this situation. I'm good.

I am very sorry Bonnie I would not suppose for one moment to know your thoughts on any matter and apologise for using your name or in any way implying that I know your situation.

It is only that you have order #2 which of course for most of us represents the START of Model X deliveries. I don't personally consider the ones delivered on September the 29th to have been the start of deliveries (again just my humble opinion).

I shall rephrase as follows:

Poor old "Customer #3" is looking at January 2016 and even that isn't confirmed.
 
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Model 3 Sales: Predicted High "Tesla" Brand Loyalty of Est. 500K Owners by End 2018

JD:

1. Toyota and others can copy all they want, but they can't copy the "Tesla" brand. For example, a "Lexus" will never be a "Mercedes" (which is what they originally copied). Also, "Lexus" is just Toyota's luxury brand, which always turned me away from it, although they do have excellent reliability.

2. Apple has a chance if they can figure out how to manufacture vehicles - or - more likely - buy a last century ICE automaker with some of that cash hoard they have, or partner with a Chinese manufacturer since they're used to dealing with the Chinese to make their tiny "i" products in what are essentially sweatshops with substandard pay compared to what people earn in the first world.

3. Google could also make a market impact when they get the manufacturing cost of their self-driving vehicle technology down to be competitive.

4. Right now, there are about 90,000 Model S on the road, since all were recalled on 11/20/2015 as a precaution to check their front seatbelt assemblies. Through 9 months, 33,117 were delivered, with 50-55K guidance for the year. 55% of the quarter had elapsed when the recall was annouced. This leaves ~8,000 more vehicles to be producted (if linear) to get to 50K+ minimum guidance for the year. Tesla has guided for 85-90K vehicles next year, an 70-80% increase. If production increases 50% in 2017, that adds another 130K S&X on the roads. A 40% S&X increase in 2018 -- assuming the Model 3 is late -- adds 180K more. My WAG projection for total Model S & X on the road at the end of 2018, when I predict the Model 3 founders and a few signatures will be delivered, is: 90 + 8 + 85 + 130 + 180 = ~500K Tesla Model S & X's on the road.

5. Brand Loyalty: Assuming 500K Teslas worldwide at the end of 2018, how many Model 3 sales do you think will directly result from these vehicles just because of loyalty to the brand? Tesla owners will buy a relatively inexpensive Model 3 as a commuter car, a second car, for their adult children or grandchildren, or just to add to their "Tesla collection", etc. I predict we'll see 300K-400K Model 3's sold just to past or present Tesla owners. I know I'll be one of these buyers. My son should be graduating from his university around when Model 3 is expected. To help motivate him (it's a really tough school), I've already told him I'll gift him a 3 as a graduation present. (For high school, I gave him an old family ICE SUV with 125K+ miles to drive.)

IMHO, the falcon wing doors operation has nothing to do with "gold chains", unless one has their X or just the doors painted gold like a show off. The doors are Tesla's most practical solution to the design challenges for 2nd and 3rd row ingress and egress, and the use of car seats. I think they are brilliant, especially the way their hidden proximity sensors allow them to open in tight spaces and lower ceilings.

@traxila - You know how it is in business. Much easier to copy than to truly innovate. Tesla have been taking all the risks - but the others will now be able to follow their path.

Imagine for a moment if one of the others are actually full-steam ahead making their version of the Tesla 3 series......someone the size of Toyota or Apple? Don't let's pretend it cannot be done as Tesla has already shown a startup can make electric cars.

I was afraid to comment on this myself for fear of being gunned down in a hail of forum bullets. But I was also wondering if I could train the kids to enter the car from the boot so that I wouldn't have those doors going up and down in public. Too much like wearing gold chains for my personal tastes......but will be fine in a couple of years once everyone has tired of seeing them.
 
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Good things come to those who wait.

Yup. That Audi Q6 e-tron is sure looking good.

2. Apple has a chance if they can figure out how to manufacture vehicles - or - more likely - buy a last century ICE automaker with some of that cash hoard they have, or partner with a Chinese manufacturer since they're used to dealing with the Chinese to make their tiny "i" products in what are essentially sweatshops with substandard pay compared to what people earn in the first world.

I assume you have seen the rumours swirling around the internet that the Billionaire Chinese backer of Future Faraday is just a front for Apple? I have not the slightest idea if true or not - but if you google there is lots of stuff flying around. Apple has as close to a bottomless pit of money that I can imagine.

I predict we'll see 300K-400K Model 3's sold just to past or present Tesla owners.

Don't get me wrong. I have no doubt that EV cars are the future. I also have no doubt that sales in the next 5-10 years will increase massively in the sector as a % - which is easy 'cos it's tiny. In the USA for 2015 new car sales for all electric were 0.4% of registrations. If you include hybrids it races up to 0.62%.

Indeed I have little doubt that if Tesla present a functioning Model 3 on time, on budget and with the ability to physically manufacture them they can sell 500,000 a year worldwide.

My concerns are their ability to hit the timings, budgets and production issues without any pitfalls. They may well do it, but I would not sink my kids inheritance into the company right now. It also remains to be seen if Tesla has entered the market too early or exactly on time for mass market profitability. But at the right price and availability I don't see sales as the issue.

Falcon doors

Again as far as the operation of the doors on the car go I am pretty much indifferent. I would prefer normal doors myself, but it's really no big deal for me either way as long as they open and close. I can handle a little embarrassment as long as they work. My issue is that I think they added time and complexity that was just not needed, and in my humble opinion many people would have been happy to get the product 12 months earlier but with boring doors. As long as they work I don't actually care anymore - the door drama is history.
 
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The only concern I have about the falcon wing doors is long-term reliability of a new, unproven, technology. For that reason, I am going to email Tesla to request that the Model X falcon wing doors be added to the 8-year, unlimited miles warranty for the battery and drive train. I suggest that other people who have either ordered or reserved a Model X do the same.

I wholeheartedly agree. Email to Tesla sent!
 
As an individual TSLA investor since early 2012, this is how I see the value of the Model X falcon wing doors:

  1. When falcon wing doors are opened in any parking lot, they will attract the attention of everyone within eyesight because they will be visible above all the other parked vehicles.
  2. Several interested people will approach the Model X to see what it is.
  3. Tesla Time!! http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/12029-The-Tesla-Time-Question. Owners like myself will carry a flyer or business card to handout to interested parties. A flyer might just look like the one below with an added QR code that links to http://teslamotors.com/modelx I'm emailing Tesla to suggest that our vehicles be delivered with flyers or a box of business cards that we can handout. I'm sure they will pay for themselves. The main purpose is to minimize Tesla Time and be able to go on your way without having to answer a bunch of questions.
  4. Some of the interested parties will check out the website.
  5. Some of those people who can afford an X will go to a Tesla Store for a test drive.
  6. Some of those people will order an X!
  7. TSLA sales and cashflow to put towards Model 3 and Model Y, factory expansion and GigaFactory construction will continue to increase.
  8. TSLA price will increase over time... :)
  9. Goto step 1 and repeat.

The only concern I have about the falcon wing doors is long-term reliability of a new, unproven, technology. For that reason, I am going to email Tesla to request that the Model X falcon wing doors be added to the 8-year, unlimited miles warranty for the battery and drive train. I suggest that other people who have either ordered or reserved a Model X do the same.

10. Owners of the Cayenne and the Range Rover parked on either sides of the X would just wait until the X drove away to open rear doors so to avoid people to notice their $100K cars only have the old style low tech swing open doors like Kia has. They made up their minds at that very moment what their next SUV will be.
 
I have been reading this thread primarily because the other threads are not very active and to see what kind of outrageous comments johnnyduval will make next. I am not sure if he is actively trying to be a troll or if he is not even conscious of what he is doing. Most trolls are looking for self validation or a sense of superiority by engaging others in baited conversation that they control and manipulate. Johnnyduval certainly does this. He also reveals himself by his many personal attacks and condescending remarks showing his need for superiority. Whether conscious of unconscious, his ego needs to be feed so go on and feed the troll. At least it is entertainment and I do learn things from the other commenters.
 
Yup. That Audi Q6 e-tron is sure looking good.

You keep talking about Audi - who proved time and time again that the only thing they are really good at is announcing electric cars that will never be delivered. Ah, and of course they are good in committing emission standard fraud. In fact, they are sooo good at that, that until today they will not confirm verbally or in writing to me that my current Audi has an "honest" engine system. I guess they either don't know themselves which cars have a cheat device built-in - or - even worse, they know full well that they committed even more fraud than is publicly known to date.
 
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Yup. That Audi Q6 e-tron is sure looking good.



I assume you have seen the rumours swirling around the internet that the Billionaire Chinese backer of Future Faraday is just a front for Apple? I have not the slightest idea if true or not - but if you google there is lots of stuff flying around. Apple has as close to a bottomless pit of money that I can imagine.



Don't get me wrong. I have no doubt that EV cars are the future. I also have no doubt that sales in the next 5-10 years will increase massively in the sector as a % - which is easy 'cos it's tiny. In the USA for 2015 new car sales for all electric were 0.4% of registrations. If you include hybrids it races up to 0.62%.

Indeed I have little doubt that if Tesla present a functioning Model 3 on time, on budget and with the ability to physically manufacture them they can sell 500,000 a year worldwide.

My concerns are their ability to hit the timings, budgets and production issues without any pitfalls. They may well do it, but I would not sink my kids inheritance into the company right now. It also remains to be seen if Tesla has entered the market too early or exactly on time for mass market profitability. But at the right price and availability I don't see sales as the issue.



Again as far as the operation of the doors on the car go I am pretty much indifferent. I would prefer normal doors myself, but it's really no big deal for me either way as long as they open and close. I can handle a little embarrassment as long as they work. My issue is that I think they added time and complexity that was just not needed, and in my humble opinion many people would have been happy to get the product 12 months earlier but with boring doors. As long as they work I don't actually care anymore - the door drama is history.


nope all german car manufacturers will be next Nokia, all will be dead in 5-10 years

we all know it
 
nope all german car manufacturers will be next Nokia, all will be dead in 5-10 years

we all know it
Consolidation is a good bet, I don't see BMW going away anytime soon as they are really trying to transform (I'm not terribly impressed with the i3 or i8, but they are the best to hit the road yet IMO) with the Moses Lake carbon fiber plant being a big investment to get away from heavier materials.

VW it would seem is destined for some restructuring and possible sell offs to regain some consumer trust under 'different management'
 
nope all german car manufacturers will be next Nokia, all will be dead in 5-10 years

we all know it

Somebody let me know......I assume this is a comedy post. I'm not sure on this forum these days?

If other car companies offer a 200+ mile vehicle with 0-60 in under 6 seconds for $32,000 they will never sell another one of their ICE products again, and they can't afford to do that.

Somebody said this earlier and it sounds like people here think the ICE manufacturers are terrified of EV......but I don't quite follow why that should be a logical conclusion? The ICE boys do not have profits dependant on future petrol sales. I know for example Epson printers need you to buy Epson inks to make their business model work. But Toyota don't much care about petrol sales - so why do they car what powers their cars? Electricity, Petrol, Hydrogen or whatever - they will make what the market wants if they can turn a profit.

And a car for them is much more than the profit only on the engine.........there is a ton of other stuff that makes up a car. If they can swap engines for batteries and make a profit then why would they actually care if they never sell another ICE ever again. It's just business.

Nissan makes the Leaf but also makes ICE cars. I am sure they would be happy as Larry to only be selling EV if it makes money.

As it happens having been kicking around the forum for a week and reading more - I have just sold my shares in Tesla I have owned since late April 2015 (bought soon after I ordered my Model X). I am out flat at $230 which is fine. Just mentioning so we can come back in 12 months time and see whether I was a donkey or not :)

I forced myself to read some more and talk to some people in the business.....and got cold feet.
 
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I assume you have seen the rumours swirling around the internet that the Billionaire Chinese backer of Future Faraday is just a front for Apple? I have not the slightest idea if true or not - but if you google there is lots of stuff flying around. Apple has as close to a bottomless pit of money that I can imagine.

I assume you know that Billionaire Chinese, Mr. Yueting Jia, is the maker of Xiaomi, which is sort of kicking Apple's ass in China's smartphone market right now (volume wise). I don't think this rumor of yours is the case. More likely, is Jia is mimicking Apple's move once again. He is well known in China to be a copy cat of Steve Jobs.

Yes we all know AAPL has a bunch of money. But the pathway for a designer of small consumer electronics (they don't even make the phones themselves) going into manufacturing cars would definitely be different from a manufacturer of spacecrafts building cars. I don't think AAPL has any advantage in EV for now, even compared with traditional automobile manufacturers.
 
I have not the slightest idea if true or not

Was that not disclaimer enough? I'll say again (maybe bold will help) - I have not the slightest idea if true or not

But the rumours are swirling around google and news reels and I didn't make 'em. So "this rumour of yours" - is not MY rumour.

But as it happens I would also think this is NOT Apple in disguise from the sound of things. But they do wanna make electric cars,
so I guess just another competitor that will 100% fail for the true believers.

There is for me slight dichotomy at work in this whole game. Elon Musk has made the Tesla patents available for free, and actively and constantly promotes that he wants to see more competition in EV for the good of the planet (and let's be honest I don't think he really needs to make more money for himself). But clearly there is a point when if the competition gets too good it can theoretically actually shaft the whole Tesla model. Logically for Elon Musk it doesn't much matter if the company fails or succeeds aside from personal pride......financially he has more money than you can spend in 100 lifetimes.

Massive Disclaimer: No, I am not saying that is what is gonna happen. I am just pointing out that is what could happen.
 
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I don't think all competitors will fail in EV in the long run. That would be the worst case scenario for Tesla. What I (and I think most other people here) think is, these competitors won't be a serious threat before 2020. By serious threat I mean being able to mass produce a better and cheaper car than what Model 3 can offer.

Was that not disclaimer enough? I'll say again (maybe bold will help) - I have not the slightest idea if true or not

But the rumours are swirling around google and news reels and I didn't make 'em. So "this rumour of yours" - is not MY rumour.

But as it happens I would also think this is NOT Apple in disguise from the sound of things. But they do wanna make electric cars,
so I guess just another competitor that will 100% fail for the true believers.
 
Yeh I do think it all hinges on the Model 3. I have not studied the maths but I assume the Gigafactory and everything else is geared around mass sales of the Model 3.......in other words if TESLA's future depended 100% ONLY on the S and X it would go pop overnight.

So as I am new and ignorant. We get the reveal in March 2016, they then get 100,000 reservations.......BUT........what are the current predictions for when you can actually walk into a showroom, pay your money, and drive one away like an ICE car?

It's like for normal people you cannot actually BUY a Model X until 2017. 2016 is sold out.

I am sure the Model 3 will get 100,000 reservations without trying very hard based on a $35,000 price......I think it sells. It's more about time to market.....'cos I really don't think the rest of the world are twiddling their fingers.

Or put it this way as well. TESLA spent a lot of time on the S and the X and even NOW spending a lot of time and resources trying to get the X manufactured. There is an argument that says it would be EASIER to start with a clean sheet and just be making a Model 3 - which scarily might just be what one of the competition are doing RIGHT NOW with no S or X baggage to worry about.

To some degree the TESLA popularity will also be a problem in the Model 3 if they cannot produce in volume for 12 months after release......it leaves room for the competitors 'cos an electric car you can actually BUY is better than an electric car that you can only reserve. Basically the exact reverse of the current situation. At the moment you buy a TESLA as it is the only decent EV you can get.

If there was a slightly crapper Model X available tomorrow I would buy that rather than wait another 15 months for a P90D here in Europe.
 
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In making the Model 3, past experience in S and X is definitely not "baggage to worry about", it's more of an assets. Put it this way. One chef already has a Michelin restaurant and is building his second Michelin restaurant and is planning to open up some Red Lobster type joints in a few years. Another to-be-chef is learning how not to cut his fingers when preparing food. Who do you think have a better chance to have some restaurant joints first?

That being said, I fully acknowledge that the Model 3 won't be that easy because mass producing a cheaper version of anything, would be much more difficult in the cost-control and supply chain departments. My own expectations for the Model 3 is sigs will get their cars in 2018 and the ASP would be closer to 55-60k.

Yeh I do think it all hinges on the Model 3. I have not studied the maths but I assume the Gigafactory and everything else is geared around mass sales of the Model 3.......in other words if TESLA's future depended 100% ONLY on the S and X it would go pop overnight.

So as I am new and ignorant. We get the reveal in March 2016, they then get 100,000 reservations.......BUT........what are the current predictions for when you can actually walk into a showroom, pay your money, and drive one away like an ICE car?

It's like for me you cannot actually BUY a Model X until 2017. 2016 is sold out.

I am sure the Model 3 will get 100,000 reservations without trying very hard based on a $35,000 price......I think it sells. It's more about time to market.....'cos I really don't think the rest of the world are twiddling their fingers.

Or put it this way as well. TESLA spent a lot of time on the S and the X and even know spending a lot of time trying to get the X made. There is an argument that says it would be EASIER to start with a clean sheet and just be making a Model 3 - which scarily might just be what one of the competion are doing RIGHT NOW with no S or X baggage to worry about.

To some degree the TESLA popularity will also be a problem in the Model 3 if they cannot produce in volume for 12 months after release......it leaves room for the competitors 'cos an electric car you can actually BUY is better than an electric car that you can only reserve. Basically the exact reverse of the current situation. At the moment you buy a TESLA as it is the only decent EV you can get.

If there was a slightly crapper Model X available tomorrow I would buy that rather than wait another 15 months for a P90D here in Europe.
 
So we think "free stocks" for the great unwashed is maybe 2019? I think lots of good and bad stuff can happen in 36-40 months.

One chef already has a Michelin restaurant and is building his second Michelin restaurant and is planning to open up some Red Lobster type joints in a few years. Another to-be-chef is learning how not to cut his fingers when preparing food. Who do you think have a better chance to have some restaurant joints first?

How about 20 chefs that don't have a Michelin star........but 50 years general experience each in the restaurant trade? I bet one or two of 'em could succeed at Red Lobsters even if the other 18 screw it up.