You can trust the onboard computer that calculates the SOC at your destination. It's pretty accurate and adjusts the forecast based on numerous conditions, including the weather, and even the wind direction! Also during the trip, you can always adjust your cruising speed if you see that the estimated SOC is going down or up. The most economical power consumption mode is driving around 55mph. I assume your cruising speed is most likely higher than that. So you always have that "speed buffer" that you can play with during the trip to arrive at the destination with the desired SOC level. You can monitor your trip in the Energy App in the car as well, which will tell you in detail how energy was used and what is the forecast.
And if something didn't work as planned, for example on the way back you can stop near this hotel with a free Tesla Destination charger (level 2) and add a few kilowatts just to be enough to reach your destination.
10 kW AC Tesla, 8 kW AC J-1772.
www.plugshare.com