Subscription FSD is Coming
- Thread starter Midnightsun
- Start date
Yep, he’s tweeted a couple times that it should be coming at the beginning of the new year. However he’s also mentioned it would be a “bad value” compared to buying. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was $200/mo or maybe even $250/mo. At $200 a 36 mo lease would be $7,200, or approximately 70% of purchasing FSD.
Maybe we’ll see it as low as about $175/mo but I can’t imagine it being lower than that. At $175 the 5 year mark would be about the cost of purchasing it. Any cheaper and I think it would seriously cut into the pool of people that purchase it. 5 to 7 years isn’t unrealistic for an upgrade cycle so people probably would switching to that subscription model and just trade in every 5 to 7 years.
Maybe we’ll see it as low as about $175/mo but I can’t imagine it being lower than that. At $175 the 5 year mark would be about the cost of purchasing it. Any cheaper and I think it would seriously cut into the pool of people that purchase it. 5 to 7 years isn’t unrealistic for an upgrade cycle so people probably would switching to that subscription model and just trade in every 5 to 7 years.
I do not think one should compare subscription prices for continuous use year round. More for people who want to take a long trip a couple of times a year and benefit from FSD on those occasions and for people who want to try it for a month or so to see if they actually need or want it. Face ie, a ton of people will try this here and there whereas they never would have dished out $10,000 to purchase it outright. If Tesla can pull in a few more $ then they will offer it. I think the plane will work well for Tesla and many owners.
FredMertz
Supporting Member
Unless there is going to be a difference in the FSD price for buying it in advance vs upgrading, why would anyone buy it in advance vs trying it for a month or two?
If there is no pre-order discount, I think the subscription price is going to be a good deal more than $200-250/month, as I believe that price would result in a significant revenue loss for Tesla.
If there is no pre-order discount, I think the subscription price is going to be a good deal more than $200-250/month, as I believe that price would result in a significant revenue loss for Tesla.
I’m biased because I paid upfront for FSD and don’t want to see it lose resale value.
I personally think the subscription will be yearly not monthly, so owners can’t just use it whenever they feel like it. Might be ~$2000 a year.
If there is a monthly option, expect it to be outrageously expensive.
I personally think the subscription will be yearly not monthly, so owners can’t just use it whenever they feel like it. Might be ~$2000 a year.
If there is a monthly option, expect it to be outrageously expensive.
Will be interesting to see how many people are willing to subscribe at it for the term of ownership. I can see it really taking off when city street navigation arrives, but I wonder what percentage of owners actually use FSD (over Autopilot) on a regular basis in a meaningful way.
Oh, please, I hope Tesla does not make it an annual contract like telcos and broadband companies. Maybe a discount for annual prepaid, but having a monthly option will likely end up with more users.
If it’s outrageously expensive, people can just decide not to subscribe.
I haven’t followed the private resale market. Does FSD usually demand the same $10K price premium? From what I’ve seen, it doesn’t seem like it does. (At least for now).
No way, I would say possibly 50% to 60% value on the private market, maybe more like 30% on the trade in market.
It might be a totally different thing once it actually gets past regulations and is more wide spread that it actually “works” and works well. Until then it’s still very much early adopter and since you can upgrade at any time on the vehicle it isn’t really “supply and demand.” Better off either getting a car without it for cheaper and upgrading when you want, OR trying to get a car with it but at a “deal” price.
Possibly a mid 2019 vehicle that upgraded for $6k could “extract” more value out of it now selling as used and valuing FSD at $7k or $8k, but I’m sure the depreciation on the vehicle would have fallen more than a early 2020 car that paid more for FSD...
This is why buying a used inventory Tesla (without FSD) directly from Tesla is better than buying a used Tesla from private party. The cars depreciate yet the price of FSD appreciates, and you can ask Tesla to take off the FSD feature to lower the car price by however much Tesla is selling FSD for.
Tesla wouldn’t remove FSD from a used car I wanted to buy about a year ago. They will remove it from a new one though...
It will be terrible value until they get actual Full Self Driving working, which is at least a few years away. The current system is only level 2.
By the time it comes out other manufactures will have it too and they will have to slash the price to make it competitive. Also cars that need upgrading to HW4 to do it won't be getting a free upgrade if you are only subscribing on a month-by-month basis so all the current vehicles won't be eligible.
By the time it comes out other manufactures will have it too and they will have to slash the price to make it competitive. Also cars that need upgrading to HW4 to do it won't be getting a free upgrade if you are only subscribing on a month-by-month basis so all the current vehicles won't be eligible.
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