This is strictly a hunch. There isn't absolute certainty in anything I share on here. Invitations to agree/disagree.
Maybe the cap was a temporary tolerance analysis whereby the BMS was put into study mode. Each pack as a device was set to operate so that the battery temps are tightly monitored below the SoC threshold these fires occurred. And that the packs were purposefully kept below spec tolerances until a pack was validated individually.
I suspect Tesla's hope is that certain at risk packs will be replaced based on the results of these test. I suspect that we will find that some functionality of our battery function will return even before this Mid May event. Maybe some range restoration, others some SuC capacity. But others will remain the same and eventually replaced for said defect after they do their magic and study the pack.
In truth, a balancing act going on behind the corporate line. A balance between acceptable risk of catastrophic battery failure and financially acceptable amount of battery replacement. In other words, which standard deviation will best reduce the amount of future fires at the lowest cost.
That being said, there is no evidence that Tesla would invest money into replacing old packs with new technology. That will be reserved for future products not already in production. We'll continue to see remanufactured packs, mix similar module from packs but all containing used batteries.
Tesla can turn off the cap on replacement packs.
So removal of the limits can be done without new firmware just using the remote diagnostics connection to the vehicle.
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Capping refurbished packs might be needed for evaluation purposes as I mentioned before. If every type of pack needs a baseline, then newly remanufactured packs are no exception the cap and study. Unless a few packs are justifiably allowed to be uncapped due to the warranty specifying "replacements being equal to or greater than original" rule. That's how PetriKarj got the battery engineers to exclude him from Tesla's battery study.
This would explain NHTSA lawsuit postponement. Tesla must that have defined measurable degradation beyond capacity or SuC rate decrease. They have to have sufficient data to explain why a pack would likely fail/combust to justify a replacement. I argue that it will sound sophisticated but the reality is closer to a bell curve of risk vs cost based on datamining.
The question we have to ask as customers is, "if batteries are being uncapped, which ones are safe to uncap and why?" This is Tesla's softest way out of this. There may be other cards in the deck, but I imagine we'll start to see cars being uncapped in the following weeks. If you can read the CAN Bus data on the pack, you can better track this. Because SuC speed rely on temperature. But for capacity restoration it should be obvious otherwise.