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Summary of Model 3 Related Info From Shareholder Letter

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by wilhelmspencer, Feb 22, 2017.

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  1. wilhelmspencer

    wilhelmspencer Model 3 Reserved 3/31/16 In Store 10:20 PST

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    This is mostly quotes of Model 3 related bits of information from the Shareholder letter just release today:
    • Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September
    • Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018
    • Ahead of the Model 3 launch, we are reengineering and expanding our operations as we anticipate the needs of a much larger family of Tesla owners. In service, since more than 80% of our repairs are so minor that they can be done remotely, we are expanding our mobile repair service that allows Tesla to make vehicle repairs at an owner’s home or office.
    • Model 3 vehicle development, supply chain and manufacturing are on track to support volume deliveries in the second half of 2017
    • In early February, we began building Model 3 prototypes as part of our ongoing testing of the vehicle design and manufacturing processes.
    • Initial crash test results have been positive, and all Model 3-related sourcing is on plan to support the start of production in July.
    • Installation of Model 3 manufacturing equipment is underway in Fremont and at Gigafactory 1, where in January, we began production of battery cells for energy storage products, which have the same form-factor as the cells that will be used in Model 3.
     
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  2. Jason Bourne

    Jason Bourne Member

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    Awesome. Is there any way to read or infer details that might not be so positive? Meaning, they're spinning us all the good news, but what is the bad news?
     
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  3. Big-T

    Big-T Member

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    I suppose what (possibly) is not great depending on how you spin it is that a stead ramp to hit 5,000 cars per week in Q4 may mean that we're realy talking late December to hit that number -- which likely means no one, or possibly very few people outside of internal Tesla Employees or current Tesla owners will actually take delivery of a Model 3.

    I'll also take this as confirmation that there's no way Tesla is getting over 200,000 cars in Q4 - so (and I'll take this as a positive for consumers) the tax credit should be in full effect thru the end of Q2 2018
     
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  4. Trips

    Trips Member

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    If they somehow produced 5,000 vehicles a week starting September 1st. That would be 80,000 total for 2017. After you account for employees and current owners I do not see new buyers getting a car.

    Based on those statements I could see 500 per week starting September 1st, adding 500 per week giving them 6,000/week in late December. That would only be 39,000 cars produced in 2017.

    What am I missing here?
     
  5. MorrisonHiker

    MorrisonHiker S 90D 17.32.6ca28227

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  6. Zextraterrestrial

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    america politics?
    or maybe the massacre in Slovenia? did no one hear about that yet?
     
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  7. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    You're missing the fact that US orders are coming first and by region at that. This means new buyers on the West coast will receive cars before current owners on the East coast.
     
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  8. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    Well, if we see that the emplyees in US - or at least on the west cost - get theirs from the production in July and August, they get to beta-test them before any customers get them in September. And that is a good thing. And as I do not think that owners everywhere get their cars before new customers on the west coast of the US, I think it is reasonable to think some new customers get their cars in 2017.
     
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  9. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

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    That'll also depend a lot on how many Model S and X they sell in the US. There were some estimates that put the number of Model 3s needing to be sold to hit the 200,000 as low as 20 - 30K. Still, I wouldn't expect them to hit that until the 4th quarter so the full credit would still be good through Q1 2018.
     
  10. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

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    Without starting the entire "who gets what when" debate, I don't think that you can say for sure that all the West coast orders will be filled first. They also prioritize by date of reservation.
     
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  11. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    ... and I don't think you can say for sure that none of the none-owners west coast orders will be filled before all owners elsewhere has got their cars.
     
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  12. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    Musk doesn't admit to delays easily. He was even willing to do a fake model X launch.
     
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  13. dss33

    dss33 Member

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    I don't think that's correct. No way they're going to let someone on the West coast put an order in in September 2017 and deliver their car before someone on the East coast who put their order in in March/April 2016.
     
  14. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    No, a non owner who put in their order on March 31st 2016 ... not new reservations.
     
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  15. dss33

    dss33 Member

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    Ah gotcha. That makes a lot more sense! Ha - thanks for clarifying.
     
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  16. Trips

    Trips Member

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    Tax Credit Math
    30k produced in Q4 and hit the 200k limit. Q1 at a rate of 5,000/week for 10 weeks (2 weeks for delivery) = 80,000 Full Model 3 tax credits

    30k produced in Q4 and hit 199k total. Q1+Q2 at a rate of 5,000/week for 23 weeks (2 weeks for delivery) = Minimum of 145,000 Full Model 3 tax credits. In reality they should be at 7,500/week at the end of Q2 2018. This number could be in the 175,000 - 200,000 range.
     
  17. wilhelmspencer

    wilhelmspencer Model 3 Reserved 3/31/16 In Store 10:20 PST

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    "The Model S has 3 kilometers of wiring, the Model 3 has 1 kilometer." -Elon on Conference Call

    Me: "Wow"
     
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  18. SD_Engnr

    SD_Engnr Member

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    Only 1 screen confirmed in the Model 3?
     
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  19. WarpedOne

    WarpedOne Supreme Premier

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    Screen yes.
     
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  20. wilhelmspencer

    wilhelmspencer Model 3 Reserved 3/31/16 In Store 10:20 PST

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    HUD For the Win!
     

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