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Summary of Model 3 Related Info From Shareholder Letter

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wilhelmspencer

Model 3 Reserved 3/31/16 In Store 10:20 PST
Jan 30, 2015
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Lynnwood, WA
This is mostly quotes of Model 3 related bits of information from the Shareholder letter just release today:
  • Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September
  • Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018
  • Ahead of the Model 3 launch, we are reengineering and expanding our operations as we anticipate the needs of a much larger family of Tesla owners. In service, since more than 80% of our repairs are so minor that they can be done remotely, we are expanding our mobile repair service that allows Tesla to make vehicle repairs at an owner’s home or office.
  • Model 3 vehicle development, supply chain and manufacturing are on track to support volume deliveries in the second half of 2017
  • In early February, we began building Model 3 prototypes as part of our ongoing testing of the vehicle design and manufacturing processes.
  • Initial crash test results have been positive, and all Model 3-related sourcing is on plan to support the start of production in July.
  • Installation of Model 3 manufacturing equipment is underway in Fremont and at Gigafactory 1, where in January, we began production of battery cells for energy storage products, which have the same form-factor as the cells that will be used in Model 3.
 
I suppose what (possibly) is not great depending on how you spin it is that a stead ramp to hit 5,000 cars per week in Q4 may mean that we're realy talking late December to hit that number -- which likely means no one, or possibly very few people outside of internal Tesla Employees or current Tesla owners will actually take delivery of a Model 3.

I'll also take this as confirmation that there's no way Tesla is getting over 200,000 cars in Q4 - so (and I'll take this as a positive for consumers) the tax credit should be in full effect thru the end of Q2 2018
 
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Reactions: bhzmark
If they somehow produced 5,000 vehicles a week starting September 1st. That would be 80,000 total for 2017. After you account for employees and current owners I do not see new buyers getting a car.

Based on those statements I could see 500 per week starting September 1st, adding 500 per week giving them 6,000/week in late December. That would only be 39,000 cars produced in 2017.

What am I missing here?
 
If they somehow produced 5,000 vehicles a week starting September 1st. That would be 80,000 total for 2017. After you account for employees and current owners I do not see new buyers getting a car.
Well, if we see that the emplyees in US - or at least on the west cost - get theirs from the production in July and August, they get to beta-test them before any customers get them in September. And that is a good thing. And as I do not think that owners everywhere get their cars before new customers on the west coast of the US, I think it is reasonable to think some new customers get their cars in 2017.
 
I'll also take this as confirmation that there's no way Tesla is getting over 200,000 cars in Q4 - so (and I'll take this as a positive for consumers) the tax credit should be in full effect thru the end of Q2 2018
That'll also depend a lot on how many Model S and X they sell in the US. There were some estimates that put the number of Model 3s needing to be sold to hit the 200,000 as low as 20 - 30K. Still, I wouldn't expect them to hit that until the 4th quarter so the full credit would still be good through Q1 2018.
 
You're missing the fact that US orders are coming first and by region at that. This means new buyers on the West coast will receive cars before current owners on the East coast.
Without starting the entire "who gets what when" debate, I don't think that you can say for sure that all the West coast orders will be filled first. They also prioritize by date of reservation.
 
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Reactions: CmdrThor
You're missing the fact that US orders are coming first and by region at that. This means new buyers on the West coast will receive cars before current owners on the East coast.

I don't think that's correct. No way they're going to let someone on the West coast put an order in in September 2017 and deliver their car before someone on the East coast who put their order in in March/April 2016.
 
Tax Credit Math
30k produced in Q4 and hit the 200k limit. Q1 at a rate of 5,000/week for 10 weeks (2 weeks for delivery) = 80,000 Full Model 3 tax credits

30k produced in Q4 and hit 199k total. Q1+Q2 at a rate of 5,000/week for 23 weeks (2 weeks for delivery) = Minimum of 145,000 Full Model 3 tax credits. In reality they should be at 7,500/week at the end of Q2 2018. This number could be in the 175,000 - 200,000 range.