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Summary of Model 3 Related Info From Shareholder Letter

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... I've heard estimates (from Tesla personnel) that there are over 5,000 reservations made by Tesla/SpaceX employees,

You answered my question before I got a chance to ask it. Thanks!


That article says there are over 15,000 Tesla employees and 5,000 Space-X employees. It seems unlikely to me that 68% of employees would have reserved a car. It's not a cheap car.

My first thought is that when the Model 3 is finally revealed it's going to tank Model S sales. This is one reason why they'd want to do it at the last possible moment.

I doubt that. The Model S is a huge car. (Which is why I never bought one.) The Model 3 is much smaller. There may be people who don't care which they get as long as they can get a Tesla, but those have known for a long time that the Model 3 is coming, and approximately when. Further, by the time of the reveal, there will be a considerable wait time for new orders due to the 400,000 reservations already in. A new car may slightly dilute the demand for the older car, but not by all that much, IMO.

There is speculation above about new buyers on the west coast getting theirs before owners elsewhere. I wonder also (based on speculation elsewhere on the forum) if some new buyers ordering fully-loaded cars may get theirs before owners ordering base-model cars. It makes sense to increase cash flow by filling the more profitable orders first. Unless Tesla has said something definite, I suppose we don't know.

But I'm encouraged that as an owner in WA planning to order, not fully-loaded by pretty well loaded, I could possibly have my car before winter sets in. AWD will be nice in winter.
 
I don't think HUD counts as a "screen".

Strictly speaking, it does. It is a projected screen.
The whole idea is to reduce cost and complexity in using one screen instead of two. A HUD would defeat the whole purpose of using one screen.

I just don't see how they get away without some info ahead of the driver, maybe 1 screen only in base cars and 1 screen plus HUD in higher Option builds?

If they can get away of using 1 screen in the base car, then it is not necessary or essential in any higher specs car.

And no, you don't need to have info directly in front of the driver.
 
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No self presenting doors or handles. Will the handles be like a normal car?

Also sounds like they don't want to get into the insurance business if they don't have to. They also said they could build the car, maintenance and insurance price into into a package deal upfront.
 
Aw (%*%&. I've only just got back into something with info right in front of me after getting a crick in my neck driving a Prius that refused to die an honorable death past 250,000 miles...

Offset driver info sux.
My 2007 prius has the info in front so I'm lucky.

However, lately as an experiment I've fully dimmed the display so I can't see the speedometer. I have to say it's way less stressful. Especially when I'm stuck behind someone going 25 in a 40, because I don't quite know exactly how much I hate them.
 
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my calcs are from how Tesla S roll out in 2012, just prorated for higher volume, anybody else remembers Elon forecast for model S production circa early 2012?

realistically, if Tesla X keep ramping up USA sales this year, the tax rebate will start expiration just as the last of the employee model 3 gets delivered, fortunately tax rebate phase out is gradual, and perhaps 5 months of delivery may be made with full rebate, post start of phase out. so perhaps there will be 100,000 of the original model 3 reservations who get the full rebate, no guessing for what trim level that will be;)

Due to nerves, a lot of people are going to order Tesla S for immediate delivery, so to secure their rebate. crazy times ahead.
 
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That's an ambitious number for the US sales of S and X in 2017. Tesla is top end estimating 50k vehicles thru Q2 and that's worldwide.

Tesla is only estimating for the 1st half of the year,
my estimate is for the whole year.
40% of 71k is 28.4k for the first 6 months (which is 56% production to USA)
ambitious or not, its well in line with how Tesla sales are now heavily USA centric and model X growth
 
If they somehow produced 5,000 vehicles a week starting September 1st. That would be 80,000 total for 2017. After you account for employees and current owners I do not see new buyers getting a car.

Based on those statements I could see 500 per week starting September 1st, adding 500 per week giving them 6,000/week in late December. That would only be 39,000 cars produced in 2017.

What am I missing here?
Where are you getting this from? Is this 5000 number from ER or shareholder letter? Can you please quote the exact sentence?
Was the 5000/week specific to Model 3, or for all (S,X & 3)? If all inclusive, then obviously Model 3 per week is nearly half of that at the end of this year.

daniel said:
That article says there are over 15,000 Tesla employees and 5,000 Space-X employees. It seems unlikely to me that 68% of employees would have reserved a car. It's not a cheap car.
Exactly. People don't think, how crazy the idea of every employee buying the exact same car at the same time is! 90% won't even be in market for a new car at that time. If Tesla will need to sell thousands of these early builds to their employees, they will need to offer huge incentives. Not to mention, many Tesla employees won't qualify for the $7500 tax credit. Only option for them will be to lease one.
 
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