... I've heard estimates (from Tesla personnel) that there are over 5,000 reservations made by Tesla/SpaceX employees,
You answered my question before I got a chance to ask it. Thanks!
Electrek reported it was around 13,000
Tesla Model 3: data shows that Tesla and SpaceX employees made over 10,000 reservations
That article says there are over 15,000 Tesla employees and 5,000 Space-X employees. It seems unlikely to me that 68% of employees would have reserved a car. It's not a cheap car.
My first thought is that when the Model 3 is finally revealed it's going to tank Model S sales. This is one reason why they'd want to do it at the last possible moment.
I doubt that. The Model S is a huge car. (Which is why I never bought one.) The Model 3 is much smaller. There may be people who don't care which they get as long as they can get a Tesla, but those have known for a long time that the Model 3 is coming, and approximately when. Further, by the time of the reveal, there will be a considerable wait time for new orders due to the 400,000 reservations already in. A new car may slightly dilute the demand for the older car, but not by all that much, IMO.
There is speculation above about new buyers on the west coast getting theirs before owners elsewhere. I wonder also (based on speculation elsewhere on the forum) if some new buyers ordering fully-loaded cars may get theirs before owners ordering base-model cars. It makes sense to increase cash flow by filling the more profitable orders first. Unless Tesla has said something definite, I suppose we don't know.
But I'm encouraged that as an owner in WA planning to order, not fully-loaded by pretty well loaded, I could possibly have my car before winter sets in. AWD will be nice in winter.