Summary of Model 3 Related Info From Shareholder Letter

[electracity]

Unlikely. While there are probably plenty of people who are stretching their budgets on the lower-end Model S trims, I do not think most are. The average Model S/X sells for $99k. Most people aren't crosshopping a 100k and 42k car.

I'm guessing that the model S/X is likely the most expensive Tesla owners have ever purchased. Plus, most higher income buyers do not buy the most expensive car they can afford.

I think most non-status car buyers will opt for the Model 3 when that car is available. Countering that trend will be the "wait and see" status car buyer who will feel it is safe to buy the S/X.

Predicting sales of luxury class priced vehicles is just about impossible.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

No one knows for sure, probably not even Tesla yet. The general consensus is that, no, an owner that placed a reservation today would not jump in front of all the non-owners regardless of when they reserved. Like Jeff said there are different regions and owners will get priority in their region, but the myTesla page also says people will be invited to configure based on reservation date, so maybe owners will get bumped up a certain number of days or something? No one really knows though ...

At some point they have to stop that. Common sense would dictate that a current owner ordering today would NOT jump ahead of all the non-owners out there.

I guess we wait until July.

But if they at least stay true to the website and what we've been told all along for the last 11-ish months....we'll be invited to configure based on our reservation date.

So regardless of when I'm getting my car, I'll at least be in the first non-employee wave to CONFIGURE my car.

 

[WileyTheMan]

So regardless of when I'm getting my car, I'll at least be in the first non-employee wave to CONFIGURE my car.

That's kind of the way I look at it. It'll give me more time to get all my financial ducks in order so I can load up my car as much as possible.

What I'm curious about though is whether you get put into a queue once you confirm your choices. So if I were one of the first to reserve, and I didn't make my choices until a month or two after I was invited to configure, am I losing my place in line on a daily basis I don't confirm? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

[ohmman]

But if they at least stay true to the website and what we've been told all along for the last 11-ish months....we'll be invited to configure based on our reservation date.

So regardless of when I'm getting my car, I'll at least be in the first non-employee wave to CONFIGURE my car.

Maybe. I may have missed where they discussed configuration priority, but isn't it possible that they'll open configuration to different groups at different times? That's how they did it with the Model X. Your place in line had to do with where you were able to configure, not when you got your vehicle delivered. My March 2014 reservation was opened up for configuration at the same time as people all the way into 2015. A number of people with reservations well after mine were then able to take delivery before me.

Again, I probably missed something, but I could imagine a situation where the design studio is opened up to the employee batch first, then the previous owners group, then some geographically based group. Or, they could just let everyone configure and figure it out on the back end. They just didn't do that in the past.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Maybe. I may have missed where they discussed configuration priority, but isn't it possible that they'll open configuration to different groups at different times? That's how they did it with the Model X. Your place in line had to do with where you were able to configure, not when you got your vehicle delivered. My March 2014 reservation was opened up for configuration at the same time as people all the way into 2015. A number of people with reservations well after mine were then able to take delivery before me.

Again, I probably missed something, but I could imagine a situation where the design studio is opened up to the employee batch first, then the previous owners group, then some geographically based group. Or, they could just let everyone configure and figure it out on the back end. They just didn't do that in the past.

My MyTesla page says, you will be invited to configure your car based on your reservation date.. Not the exact quote, but pretty close. ( I don't

Says nothing about sub-categories, etc etc.

 

[Model 3]

am I losing my place in line on a daily basis I don't confirm?

No one except probably Tesla knows, but my guess is that you do.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

That's kind of the way I look at it. It'll give me more time to get all my financial ducks in order so I can load up my car as much as possible.

What I'm curious about though is whether you get put into a queue once you confirm your choices. So if I were one of the first to reserve, and I didn't make my choices until a month or two after I was invited to configure, am I losing my place in line on a daily basis I don't confirm? Inquiring minds want to know.

that would fall in line with Elon's earlier tweets about "highly configured" vehicles being produced first.

 

[SageBrush]

Not to be a buzzkill, but you did hear that it might be months before the reveal, right?

I decided to be literal here, and differentiate the next reveal from EM's final design remark.

 

[ohmman]

My MyTesla page says, you will be invited to configure your car based on your reservation date.. Not the exact quote, but pretty close. ( I don't

Says nothing about sub-categories, etc etc.

The quote is:

Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. Deliveries will begin in late 2017. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation.

At least, that's from my page and it shows the same for both of my reservations. I think it's arguable that "based on the date of your reservation" is valid even with priority configuration queues. So long as the date of your reservation is one of the criteria, then indeed your invitation is based on that date.

I'm not trying to argue one way or another, and I certainly have no preference. What I do prefer is that people don't set expectations and wind up being disappointed. I know there was plenty of disappointment with the S and X configuration and delivery process (just take a look at those old threads!)

So maybe just keep your mind open to the fact that hopefully you'll be in the first batch of configurations, but it's possible you won't.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I decided to be literal here, and differentiate the next reveal from EM's final design remark.

I'm hoping he throws us a bone and at least talks stats at the end of March.

Even if we don't get to see anything....maybe tell us battery configs and range...? please? lol

 

[ModelNforNerd]

The quote is:

At least, that's from my page and it shows the same for both of my reservations. I think it's arguable that "based on the date of your reservation" is valid even with priority configuration queues. So long as the date of your reservation is one of the criteria, then indeed your invitation is based on that date.

I'm not trying to argue one way or another, and I certainly have no preference. What I do prefer is that people don't set expectations and wind up being disappointed. I know there was plenty of disappointment with the S and X configuration and delivery process (just take a look at those old threads!)

So maybe just keep your mind open to the fact that hopefully you'll be in the first batch of configurations, but it's possible you won't.

I'm open to the possibility of it not working out that way....but I'm also thinking that Tesla and Elon want to push for conversions from Reservations, not to mention how helpful that would be for the supply chain.

If you know 2-3 months out that you'll need x-amount of (fill in the blank) supplies.....the whole thing runs smoother than if you do it on the fly.

 

[mmd]

More upside and downside.

Tesla Model 3 Progress, Gigafactories 1–5, Tesla Insurance … (Tesla 4th Quarter & 2016 Financials Call & Report)
"In a unique insight into Tesla communications with partners, Elon shared the volume guidance it is providing to parts suppliers in terms of vehicle production per week at: 1,000/week in July, 2,000/week in August, and 4,000 per week in September."
If you do the math, that 4,000 estimated in July, then 8,000 in August, and followed by 16,000 in September, add that up and you have 28,000 estimated production by the end of Sept 2017!

Then, @JeffK quotes this:

Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017.

These two don't line up well. July is not late 2017, definitely not by Tesla standard.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Then, @JeffK q July is not late 2017

If it's after day 182 of the calendar year, technically it is late 2017...mid if you want to split hairs, but definitely not early.


Since this year is not a leap year.....July 1st is EXACTLY day 182, but it's also a Saturday....so who knows.....

 

[daniel]

So to sum it up, we really don't know much about timing or who will get their cars first. Preference for owners over first-time buyers conflicts with west-coast first, and we don't know if or to what degree a last-minute owner order trumps a first-day order from a non-owner or what effect the options chosen will have on production timing.

All we know is that the car is coming, and it's going to be an amazing car.

 

[Model 3]

technically it is late 2017

To continue to "split hairs" I would say "late 2017" is more or less the same as "Q4 2017". The first day in second half of 2017 is not "late". You could perhaps say that September 1. - when the mass production starts - is "late", but that is a stretch... So I agree with @mmd that it has changed. As I mentioned in an earlier post. It has been moved forward from "late 2017" to "mid 2017", but it could be argued that mass production starts "late".

 

[N5329K]

This sounds familiar.

Robin

 

[dsvick]

At some point they have to stop that. Common sense would dictate that a current owner ordering today would NOT jump ahead of all the non-owners out there.

I guess we wait until July.

Hopefully, July is all the longer we have to wait. Although I could honestly see them not specifically stating how people are being asked to configure if for no other reason than to not have to deal with the complaints. Not that they won't get complaints either way.

What I'm curious about though is whether you get put into a queue once you confirm your choices. So if I were one of the first to reserve, and I didn't make my choices until a month or two after I was invited to configure, am I losing my place in line on a daily basis I don't confirm? Inquiring minds want to know.

Yes, I would think that the sooner you confirm your configuration the sooner you'll be slotted into the production queue. Sure, there will be some adjusting as other people configure around you but the closer to the actual production date you get the less it will shift.

 

[dsvick]

Then, @JeffK quotes this:


These two don't line up well. July is not late 2017, definitely not by Tesla standard.

Keep in mind that the line that Jeff noted has been in place for months while the other quote was made yesterday, I think it's unreasonable to expect that they'll go through and adjust every piece of text on their site to match.

 

[JeffK]

Then, @JeffK quotes this:
These two don't line up well. July is not late 2017, definitely not by Tesla standard.

The blog post was posted March 21st 2016... that was nearly a year ago. After seeing the reservations flood in after the 31st, everything changed. The ramp up was moved two years sooner, Elon set an "impossible" deadline of July 1st, 2017 for suppliers, fully expecting (hopefully) minor delays. He mentioned that they are going to work closely with suppliers every step of the way to help prevent delays. They even cancelled an order from a supplier who wasn't up to par.

As of the financial call this week, Elon seems optimistic that they might actually hit somewhere near the date he said would be "impossible."

Overall, things are looking good.

 

[maekuz]

There are $664M in customer deposits as of Dec 31th.

Assuming the backlog for the MX is near zero, we are talking about M3 reservations at what? Nearly 600,000?