In order to get this back on track I was wondering how long we'll have to go before we determine 'today is the day that SS hasn't hurt or killed anyone for long enough it is roughly equivalently as safe as a human'. Using Sandia's base of 268.8M cars (which is a high estimate of both cars registered and also of cars that are actually used...I have a car in my garage that is registered but got used twice this year and 0 times last year for instance).
I haven't found EXACT numbers but plenty of references to 60,000 injuries (911 type injuries) and at least 500 deaths per year in the US as of 2016, with a sharp trend upwards due to distracted driving so likely much higher now. I'm always wary of round numbers, if anyone has more reliable...feel free. So that means 268.8/60,000 gives us 1 injury per 4,480 cars registered per year and one death per 537,600 cars registered.
What does that mean to SS? A true apples to apples is impossible, we don't have all the right data. But lets do some estimating.
I looked around a bit but couldn't find any official estimates on how many parking lot trips we take in a year. I'd guess rural populations use parking lots much less than once a day and sub-urban populations use parking lots a bit more than once a day. I've lived in both, that's my experience. If the average registered car uses a parking lot once per day that is 4,480 cars/injury/year x 365 parking lot retrievals/year or... 1 injury for every 1.6m times someone goes back to a car in the parking lot and leaves (i.e. a summon opportunity). Lets assume twice that to be generous and reduce counter argument...so 1 injury for every 3.2m times someone goes back to a car in a parking lot by my figuring.
From the other direction. Lets assume each summon attempt requires 5 registered attempts. That's high, but I'm feeling generous. This is good will towards
@electronblue for staying reasonable. High fives and hugs and stuff.
So, we would need to clock 5x 3.2M = 16.3M summon attempts with no significant injuries to be pretty convinced that Summon is less dangerous (safety, not property damage) than a regular human. At 100k summon attempts per day, (likely more now that V10 is fully rolling out but may taper in time as it gets old) it will take approximately 163days (23 weeks, 5.5 months)...so somewhere between feb and april 2020 (assuming we already have several hundred k attempts before the FSD roll out). I did NOT, this is important, look to see if it is a leap year so that's +0/-1 days range.
that's a while, I was hoping it would be like next week so we wouldn't have to wait lol. But I also think that's a very conservative estimate (assuming my math is right...I didn't use a spread sheet, so, well, you've been warned). I'd bet that tesla (and more importantly NHTSA) will be able to declare this sooner, maybe as little as 3 months. Things will get twisted because updates will make some things better and some worse, so we won't really no for sure of course.
First, please chime in with my mistakes or better estimates. Second, votes on if we make it 23 weeks (or whatever the right number is)? I don't care about property damage for this analysis. That was covered earlier, and yep SS is currently not up to par with a human there, though rates are still low they need improvement to be as good as good 'ol mama meat sack.
@SandiaGrunt you don't get a vote.