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Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations

Buckminster

Active Member
Aug 29, 2018
3,886
21,353
UK
There is some chatter on the main thread about ARK's latest estimates going into Trillions and how this is not possible. I wanted to offer an alternative view point.

My $125T market cap 50x50x50 target that I have previously posted is made up of:

$50k per annum per fleet vehicle profit. Competition is the cost of 2 or 3 taxi drivers plus ICE depreciation (2 or 3 vehicles). I believe that TE profits will pay for all RT costs including adding to the fleet.

50m vehicles in Tesla's fleet which they own 100%. Folk have been talking about TSLA dividends. This is where the cash will go. You won't be able to buy the cars anymore. Good for the environment and therefore mission. Warren has also stated this.

50 P/E ratio. Amazon is 57 right now. Do I need to say more?

This works out as $125T which some folk believe is more money than the rest of the world combined. It is true that gross world product is only $80T. However I believe that the world wealth figure of $400T is what we should be comparing to as a potential TAM for share holders.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...-2020-en.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2uB7smxwX7h1Rgez9bLspG
We are talking market cap here not sales or profits. Profits are 50 times smaller based on P/E ratio and margins are huge (sales will tend towards 3x profit -- maybe less). $400T could easily be $1000T by 2030 (1 quadrillion).
Based on this my profit is 50x50 = $2.5T. This is only 0.25% of total world wealth. They offer transport, energy, robots and likely homes. What else is there?

Don't make me include the Bot - $125T will only increase...
 

jeewee3000

Active Member
Sep 1, 2015
1,344
8,063
Belgium
Hi @Buckminster , I was digging up the Super Bull thread to guide you there, but then I noticed your post over there pointing here.

So this is the Hyper Bull thread? Allow me to take a seat, please 😊 .

Your $125T market cap would imply SP of (a little less than) $125.000. Nice.

Reminds me of Warren Redlich's target of $100.000. (based on battery output x revenue per kWh)

Not impossible IMO. Although I don't see this in 2030 but more like in 2040.

Given future inflation and the further growth of the world economy (China, India, Africa) the total market cap of companies in the stock market(s) will only increase. Only fair that Tesla should be a large player, if not the largest.

Only criticism of your 50x50x50 target: I think $50k / year/vehicle profit is a little high since the price will probably be set lower as to draw in more customers. But hey, 35x50x50 is still 87.5 T .

Go TSLA
 

Gigapress

Member
Sep 20, 2021
330
4,708
Seattle, WA
Hi @Buckminster , I was digging up the Super Bull thread to guide you there, but then I noticed your post over there pointing here.

So this is the Hyper Bull thread? Allow me to take a seat, please 😊 .

Your $125T market cap would imply SP of (a little less than) $125.000. Nice.

Reminds me of Warren Redlich's target of $100.000. (based on battery output x revenue per kWh)

Not impossible IMO. Although I don't see this in 2030 but more like in 2040.

Given future inflation and the further growth of the world economy (China, India, Africa) the total market cap of companies in the stock market(s) will only increase. Only fair that Tesla should be a large player, if not the largest.

Only criticism of your 50x50x50 target: I think $50k / year/vehicle profit is a little high since the price will probably be set lower as to draw in more customers. But hey, 35x50x50 is still 87.5 T .

Go TSLA
$50k per robotaxi annual profit (in 2021 dollars) is probably too high. But 50 million in the fleet is probably too low by 2030. The total Tesla fleet will probably be more like 60-70 million by then, and the value both in money and acceleration of sustainable energy is so great that I'd anticipate Tesla offering to buy out anyone's privately owned vehicle for a great price in order to put it on the network. Also they may be able to retrofit FSD hardware on other companies' vehicles.

And this model still excludes:
Energy
Dojo as a service
Any TeslaBot success
HVAC/smarthome services
Any heretofore unannounced developments

On the other hand, it remains to be seen if they will succeed and even if so, whether societies will tolerate one company having this much wealth and power.
 

Gigapress

Member
Sep 20, 2021
330
4,708
Seattle, WA
They are included because their net profit needs to be sufficient to cover the cost of the 20m vehicles in 2029 and the operating expenses. TeslaBot is a wildcard.
Ah, I see now I had missed this sentence "...TE profits will pay for all RT costs including adding to the fleet."

So is your $50k annual profit estimate per RT marginal profit only with upfront vehicle costs accounted for by cancelling out Energy profits?

Even so, extended over a million mile life that's about 2-3x Tesla's 2019 Autonomy Day estimate of $200k net present value per RT. I think $30k per year is more realistic. It seems to me Tesla is signalling an intent to pass on a significant portion of the driver savings on to consumers. In light of the mission and the long term goal of not strangling the golden goose by getting greedy and then facing political backlash, I think this is a good idea.

On the other hand, I think in 2030 energy and the rest will overwhelmingly exceed SG&A expenses.
 
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Mengy

Member
Feb 18, 2020
890
7,020
PA
This guy is a buffoon.

Warren is a little bit overly optimistic with his valuations and production volume expectations. He actually thinks Tesla will sell a Tesla-bot for $500,000 each. Tesla wants this to be a mass market product, not a niche super expensive one. His analysis is usually pretty great conceptually but when it comes to the dollars he grossly over-estimates.

I know super Tesla bulls who stick to realistic numbers to get their huge valuations, but Warren gets there by using unrealistic numbers.
 
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