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Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations

Buckminster

Active Member
Aug 29, 2018
3,585
19,297
UK
There is some chatter on the main thread about ARK's latest estimates going into Trillions and how this is not possible. I wanted to offer an alternative view point.

My $125T market cap 50x50x50 target that I have previously posted is made up of:

$50k per annum per fleet vehicle profit. Competition is the cost of 2 or 3 taxi drivers plus ICE depreciation (2 or 3 vehicles). I believe that TE profits will pay for all RT costs including adding to the fleet.

50m vehicles in Tesla's fleet which they own 100%. Folk have been talking about TSLA dividends. This is where the cash will go. You won't be able to buy the cars anymore. Good for the environment and therefore mission. Warren has also stated this.

50 P/E ratio. Amazon is 57 right now. Do I need to say more?

This works out as $125T which some folk believe is more money than the rest of the world combined. It is true that gross world product is only $80T. However I believe that the world wealth figure of $400T is what we should be comparing to as a potential TAM for share holders.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...-2020-en.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2uB7smxwX7h1Rgez9bLspG
We are talking market cap here not sales or profits. Profits are 50 times smaller based on P/E ratio and margins are huge (sales will tend towards 3x profit -- maybe less). $400T could easily be $1000T by 2030 (1 quadrillion).
Based on this my profit is 50x50 = $2.5T. This is only 0.25% of total world wealth. They offer transport, energy, robots and likely homes. What else is there?

Don't make me include the Bot - $125T will only increase...
 
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jeewee3000

Active Member
Sep 1, 2015
1,217
6,918
Belgium
Hi @Buckminster , I was digging up the Super Bull thread to guide you there, but then I noticed your post over there pointing here.

So this is the Hyper Bull thread? Allow me to take a seat, please 😊 .

Your $125T market cap would imply SP of (a little less than) $125.000. Nice.

Reminds me of Warren Redlich's target of $100.000. (based on battery output x revenue per kWh)

Not impossible IMO. Although I don't see this in 2030 but more like in 2040.

Given future inflation and the further growth of the world economy (China, India, Africa) the total market cap of companies in the stock market(s) will only increase. Only fair that Tesla should be a large player, if not the largest.

Only criticism of your 50x50x50 target: I think $50k / year/vehicle profit is a little high since the price will probably be set lower as to draw in more customers. But hey, 35x50x50 is still 87.5 T .

Go TSLA
 

Buckminster

Active Member
Aug 29, 2018
3,585
19,297
UK
Another data point to backup my $50k net profit per vehicle:

Brits pay £200 + for an overnight journey with a bed. Saves time and cost of hotel. Annualised this is $100k just for the 10pm to 8am market.
 

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