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Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations

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Update to my target TSLA valuation:

Bot
$25k profit per bot per annum (50% of robotaxi but will rise significantly post 2030)
200 million bots in fleet in 2030 (4x autos as significantly simpler - smaller battery etc. - there are 728m iPhones in the world)
P/E ratio of 50
25*200*50=$250T

Non bot
Remains $125T

Total = $375T
If Tesla does succeed in getting first mover advantage on mobile robots, then this valuation seems low to me. As just one use, mobile robots should replace almost all farming labor. Picking grapes seems a lot easier than the FSD march of nines needed for safe driving.

Globally, about 1 billion people work in agriculture. Gonna need a lot of bots to replace most of them.
 
I'm upping my bull case by 2 years after watching Ameca, it would seem that some of the harder parts of the bot might already be solved (partially), at least by this company. Packaging is hard, keeping weight and size down as as it gets lighter will take less to power.

I now think the hardest thing might actually be the AI needed for functional inference.

My previous estimate for a fully working bot was 2030, but now this could be closer to 2028 as it will still take incredible amounts of training compute.

Dojo will be key for this as training needs to iterate faster. I'd estimate that if we said FSD needs X amount of training, then the AI bot would be 100X to 100's of millions. The bot will need to move around in complete free space, no roads, no lines, no signs, no rules (other than The Three Laws).
 
I'm upping my bull case by 2 years after watching Ameca, it would seem that some of the harder parts of the bot might already be solved (partially), at least by this company. Packaging is hard, keeping weight and size down as as it gets lighter will take less to power.

I now think the hardest thing might actually be the AI needed for functional inference.
If you mean that the harder parts of the bot are facial expressions and body language, I would disagree. In the case of Ameca and other "lifelike" bots, this indeed takes a whole lot of engineering but these are steps Tesla is skipping completely by the design of the bot (blank, unmovable face/head). Boston Dynamics also does not spend engineering resources on this (see Atlas: all engineering goes towards the mobility of the bot to end up with a useful product as quickly as possible (for example for rescuing operations)).

Mobility means more than motions in this sense. It also includes downsizing of the battery/parts/power consumption in order for the bot to be able to operate without a connected power source for a decent amount of time.

Mobility is something Tesla thinks they can do best with their FSD , battery, and actuator tech.

Boston Dynamics seem to be the current leader in balance and movement, as well as reading the environment (e.g. when it runs over blocks it can perceive them and plan its running route). But of course the Boston Dynamics demos are in controlled environments and often with manual control. Tesla is aiming for:
- input command (e.g. "go get a box of such and such parts in the warehouse")
- output: the bot navigates autonomously to said warehouse, identifies the correct box, retrieves it and returns it.

Boston Dynamics bots (or Spot for that manner) are far far away from these kinds of objectives.

I'm quite optimistic regarding use of Tesla bots by Tesla themselves. 2028 seems too far out IMO. I'll go for first prototype in the course of 2023. First useful Tesla bot (inhouse in Tesla, creating some value for Tesla) by 2025.

If so: margins on manufactered products can rise even higher than where they are today. Bullish :cool:
 
If you mean that the harder parts of the bot are facial expressions and body language, I would disagree.
I didn't and complete agree with you. Balance, mobility, articulation, fluidity, smoothness and sound isolation. Imagine hearing hissing, gears and other mechanical noises from the bot. That would get old real quick.

It wasn't the face at all and I think that is largely the least interesting part of the demo IMO.

The motion of the shoulders and arms was very interesting however as it demonstrated a huge range of motion while looking like an elegant design and packaging.
 
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I didn't and complete agree with you. Balance, mobility, articulation, fluidity, smoothness and sound isolation. Imagine hearing hissing, gears and other mechanical noises from the bot. That would get old real quick.

It wasn't the face at all and I think that is largely the least interesting part of the demo IMO.

The motion of the shoulders and arms was very interesting however as it demonstrated a huge range of motion while looking like an elegant design and packaging.
Regarding Ameca, I only saw your posted video. I had the impression it couldn't walk around. I'll need to look into this further when I have more time.
 
Copying and pasting Steven Mark Ryan's valuation by year, with catalysts, from his recent video:


I posted this just now in @TheAccountant's valuation thread, but it is useful here too.

YearBear Case
(6% chance)
Base Case
(60% chance)
Weighted
Average
Bull Case
(30% chance)
Hyperbull
(4% chance)
Catalysts
2022
130217131998
2023
21473445
2024
297650051st robotaxi fare, Semi
2025
39107906Dojo as a service, FSD licensing, Tesla Bot
2026
46909946$25000 Tesla, half of new vehicles electric: ICE vehicle sales collapse
2027
57611291712917Insurance annual profits 0.5 billion, Tesla delivers 10+ million vehicles
2028
16152AGI, progress with TeslaBot, gigantic fleet of subscribers to FSD
2029
843621332Deliveries of 12-13-14+ million, 0.25 trillion profit
2030
99302720115 million vehicles, hundreds of billions of profits, bankruptcy, collapse of other automakers
2031
114763365920 million vehicles, fleet of 80+ million, most paying for FSD subscriptions. Not including profits from Robotaxi service
 
But the global Taxi business is only 69 billion dollars (in 2019)... Your numbers become a fairy tale opposed to that.
You're in the wrong thread. We talk in trillions and quadrillions here. Tesla Network could potentially replace all road usage and much more. Tunnels, freight, take away, hotels (sleeping in the RT on your way to your destination. The list goes on.

Another big one will be transporting all the Tesla Bots which makes up two thirds of the valuation. I didn't think of that previously but will mostly be post 2030.
 
This is a wildcard but is straightforward to estimate.

What if the Bot actually works really well and there’s eventually an army of ten billion of them (wild guess of one bot per person) and each one consumes 5 kWh per day on average? That’s another 50 TWh of electricity needed daily or about 20 PWh (peta) per year, which is 10% of our current consumption.

If we have 10 bots per person it’d be 200 PWh per year which would by itself double human energy consumption.

100 bots per person --> 2000 PWh/yr --> 20x human energy consumption
 
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Rephrased for clarity: "Tesla with solved FSD, an operational robotaxi network, a humanoid robot business which replaces much of human labor, and has solved for artificial general intelligence will be worth at least 100x the automotive business. This makes the EV business a rounding error in the valuation. If we solve FSD, we will have solved the hardest remaining problem to becoming the largest company in the history of humanity."