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Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations

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A one trillion dollar rounding error.
I would estimate closer to a $10T rounding error without RT. I suppose that valuation will be retained as Tesla can always go back to selling EVs.
TE also in the same ballpark but not worth modelling either. In my calcs I used TE profits to pay for the early Tesla owned Optimus and RT assets. TE therefore needs to accelerate sooner rather than later.
 
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$4.4q. He said it, not me:
Of that I have no doubt! But I would like to see Elon use his time more productively, and hand off all the boring, tedious and (relatively) low-value work that inevitably falls to the CEO. ;)

Tesla 'bot is a perfect example. Who thinks out of the box like that?! But Elon has steadily built up Tesla so it owns the full stack of technologies needed to design and build the world's first general purpose humanoid robot.

COGS ↓ + EPS ↑ = Game Changed.

TSLA to $4.4T even w/o 'bot? Okay. But TSLA with 'bot? 10x or 100x? I suppose it depends on how much asteroid mining falls to Tesla 'bot. 1,000x is possible, IMO. ;)

Cheers to the Looongs!
 
You have a weird idea of what it means to make friends. Lobbying has nothing to do with making friends - it's all about bribing the system. I know a really nice guy who worked for a major beverage distributor making a mid-six figure income with an essentially unlimited expense account. His job was to constantly wine and dine executives at the best restaurants, nightclubs, shows, etc. He hated the people he had to "befriend" and found it so distasteful he gave up his ridiculous salary and quit.

Tesla is of a different breed because Elon Musk has ideals that align with what humanity needs to thrive. Elon doesn't believe there is a fixed amount of wealth in the world and his job is to get as much of it as he can grab, no, he believes that by making life better for people, you increase the total wealth in the world and that it's a virtuous cycle.

This is my understanding of the economy too. The more efficiently it runs, the more wealth and the less poverty there is in the world. By creating more efficiency, not only do you become wealthy, but you improve the well-being of humanity. Lobbying for special favors is the anti-thesis of increasing the total amount of wealth in the world. It's a questionable exercise based on getting your fingers on what you think is a limited pie. Only people confident in their ability to increase the size of the pie can improve life for all, rather than fighting for existing scraps. Elon belongs in the former category.
 
And Elon still says

* The Tesla car business will get to 20M vehicles (even in a robotaxi world)
* FSD/Robotaxi increases value some insane amount
* Storage/Tesla Energy will be as valuable as the car company is now (I don't think you get to multiply that against FSD/Robotaxi)
* Humanoid Robots will be more valuable than Robotaxi

So that's a lot of math that says they have multiple paths to being the most valuable company on the planet.
 
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I like how Elon just throws out these casual off hand comments:

"Anyways ... [TeslaBot] is probably the least understood or appreciated part of what we are doing at Tesla, but will probably be worth more than the car side of things long term"

This after he muses about what is an economy when there is no limit to growth?

No one takes him seriously, and yet here he is fundamentally transforming the entire global economy in front of our eyes...

 
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Elon said he think there will be more bots than humans. Let's do the math. There are 8B humans on the planet. Let's say Elon is right and there is a need for 10B bots. Tesla takes a 50% market for these. Each bot has a lifespan of 10years. So 500M Tesla bots/year. If Tesla sells these for $20k at 10k profit, that's $5T/year in profit. Let's say they take a $100/monthly subscription for the software, that's $6T/year in subscription at ~100% profit..

So yeah, if Elon is right, then bots could be an order of magnitude or two larger than cars and energy...
 
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On the investor day, Elon said every human will need a bot. So 8 billion * 25k = 200 trillion addressable market. Assume Tesla gets 20% - 40 trillion. Bot replaced every 4 years. 10 trillion sales - 30% earnings - 3 trillion earnings. 20 PE equals to 60 trillion market cap.

Seriously doubt there is a 4 year replacement cycle on these. Maybe 10-20 years on the parts and you upgrade the brain every 3-4 years, and invest in monthly cleanings. Solid chance there is recurring revenue there.

Then again maybe my Optimus cleans and repairs my wife’s and her’s mine, the way monkeys groom each other.

Also, we need them to sell one Optimus before we start talking about selling millions. Let’s not be like the Apple fans who were making models for how Apple was going to steam roller the auto industry. A lot needs to happen before Tesla can take over the manual labor market.

If Tesla were to make billions of bots, I think the production cost and selling price would probably fall far below $25k. Huge if, of course.

For comparison, an entire car can be built today for around $25k.

The bot will have one or two orders of magnitude less parts, mass, and build operations than a car. The bot’s mass is ~70kg, which is ~30x less than a Model Y. We don’t know the part count, but it should be much less than the multi-thousand part count for a car. This implies much lower bill of materials cost and indirect costs thereof, including supply chain, logistics, floor space, and fabrication/assembly operations.

Also, if the bot eventually becomes capable enough for there to be demand for billions of units, then the army of bots itself will help build more bots with very low labor cost in an exponential self-replication cycle of growth. Assuming Tesla did not fake their Investor Day demo video, they are apparently already working on this.

At production scale in the billions, economies of scale and Wright’s law would reduce costs as well. Fixed costs would become a tiny fraction of the overall cost structure and learning curve effects would result in extremely optimized design and manufacturing techniques, just like we see for other products with similarly huge scale, like rice, computer chips, or aluminum cans.

This leads me to believe the cost has the potential to fall to a few thousand dollars per bot. If so, Tesla probably would not sell the bot for as high as $25k unless they’re targeting like 80% gross margin. It’s hard to really model though. If this thing actually works as hoped then the entire world is going to get weird really fast.

I am going by Elons prediction that bot will be priced as much as a small car. My timelines for this is more like 2040 and 25k then is probably worth 15- 20k today and inflation on top. However, lower priced bot will only attract more demand. There is also potential for some sort recurring revenue as well. So I thought 25k would be a good ASP by 2040.

I think the bot will follow a similar model as game consoles. Sell the hardware near cost and profit off of optional software packages to install over time.

I think I have around 70 games on my Switch now. Some were collections and many on sale, but Nintendo makes money from each one.
 
Tweet liked by Elon.

Call me crazy but I think the number is in excess of 7Bn. Think about how many you might want personally at any one time. Max could be:

Sleeping in one
whilst:
  1. Special delivery from Italian seafood on route
  2. Groceries being unloaded by Optimus
  3. Amazon parcels inbound
  4. Luggage unloading at my hotel
  5. V2G
  6. Art studio
  7. Hot food delivery to my art campsite
  8. Toilet to my art campsite
Some will fly.
I will stop there before I embarrass myself. Elon's gonna need to build a lot of tunnels.
 
It was obvious to me before Optimus was announced that Tesla would leverage their FSD tech for things aside from cars. I fully expect that as long as Tesla continues to execute in this direction they will be the leading company in the effort to automate everything. If you can run a car or a robot, then the sky is the limit. Lawn mowers, vacuum cleaners, drones, ships...anything that moves and is either controlled by humans or rudimentary software now is a potential recipient of some sort of Tesla AI.

What's the TAM on "everything"?


Most folks here have better insight into how the markets function than I do but I can't help but think this is part of the answer of why the MMs have such a profitable time manipulating TSLA.

~ U$4 Quadrillion per year, roughly.
 
Douma on why Tesla should not sell RTs. Not popular idea here yet.

Sigh, we've been through the business model many times before. Tesla has to be able to self-finance. That means it can not keep all it's Robotaxi production. It will have to sell at least some portion to pay the manufacturing costs.

For example, if Tesla's EBITA margins on Robotaxi are 40% then they can keep about 40% of their production and still break even before the first $ in autonomous ride hale fares is received. If EBITA is 20%, then Tesla can only keep 20% of the Robotaxis they make.

It may be tempting to dip into the Ride Hale profits to expand the fleet, but they are not setting up the business model to depend upon that. That money goes to fund R&D for the next 10x steppe change in Tesla TAM.

Cheers!
 
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Sigh, we've been through the business model many times before. Tesla has to be able to self-finance. That means it can not keep all it's Robotaxi production. It will have to sell at least some portion to pay the manufacturing costs.

For example, if Tesla's EBITA margins on Robotaxi are 40% then they can keep about 40% of their production and still break even before the first $ in autonomous ride hale fares is received. If EBITA is 20%, then Tesla can only keep 20% of the Robotaxis they make.

It may be tempting to dip into the Ride Hale profits to expand the fleet, but they are not setting up the business model to depend upon that. That money goes to fund R&D for the next 10x steppe change in Tesla TAM.

Cheers!
It is a question of how bullish you are on the numbers. My expectation:
  1. 100% of robotaxis are owned by customers in 2025/26 as per Elons wish to spread the wealth
  2. Elon gets tired of wealthy owners keeping the vehicles to themselves. This doesn’t meet the mission etc and won’t even make Tesla very much money as 30% of nothing is nothing. The alternative could be that the vehicle has to be on the network for 50 to 100% of the day.
  3. By 2026 the profits of non robotaxi business will be able to fund 100% of the fleet. Payback perIod will be less than a year. Network profit per vehicle is $50k, cost $17.5k. Finance could be employed if needed also.
  4. Benefits to the world is great as Tesla can enter markets tactically and ensure the vehicles are spread around.
I believe customers could pay a premium over Uber for years due to novelty, eco credentials and privacy. One car replaces at least two Ubers which is where I get the $50k profit. This is why I call this thread the hyper bull thread…
How many hours do Uber drivers work a week? On average, part-time Uber drivers work around 20 hours a week, while full-time Uber drivers can work 45 hours or more.