Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations

[Buckminster]

Optimus will be the new IPhone
It’s coming
TSLA will be worth several multiples of AAPL
Zero contest

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659433036532928513

 

[Buckminster]

If Teslabot can replace human labor … let’s use round numbers, a factory worker costs $100K/yr. So the utility of a Teslabot is at least $500K. And Tesla will be able to make it for around $10K. Now that’s some real margins!! And I suspect Tesla will simply rent them out at $10/hr. So immediate huge market. Timeline? Based on what I saw in their latest video, I suspect we’ll see a Teslabot doing useful work inside a Tesla factory within a year.

 

[Buckminster]

Update to my target TSLA valuation:

Bot
$25k profit per bot per annum (50% of robotaxi but will rise significantly post 2030)
200 million bots in fleet in 2030 (4x autos as significantly simpler - smaller battery etc. - there are 728m iPhones in the world)
P/E ratio of 50
25*200*50=$250T

Non bot
Remains $125T

Total = $375T

Ignore the Twitter post - wrong thread.

So my $375T valuation in 2030 is still crazy optimistic. However, what is now increasingly obvious is less crazy folk might say that longer term my inputs are a little pessimistic.

I have profit for boy at $25k per annum. @Cosmacelf is suggesting a utility of $500k per annum. 20x although profit versus utility.

I have 200m boys in fleet. Elon mentioned a TAM of up to 20bn. 100x although assumes no competition.

That is a combined 2000x on my inputs…

Not sure the world is ready for my 2040 projections just yet but clearly it would top one quadrillion. Quite conservative really. P/E ratio would come down. World gdp would increase massively and encompass Martian/space economies.

 

[Buckminster]

No healthcare benefits
No worker’s compensation
No PTO or FTO, sick leave, paternity leave, lateness
No freebies like coffee, cola, juice, snack foods
No uniforms (t-shirts, hats etc…)
No promotions and thus higher salaries
Smaller parking lots
Smaller cafeterias
Fewer bathrooms and lesser other employee spaces (locker room, showers, workout room, entertainment room)
Smaller HR department
Smaller payroll department

Etc…

People suck AND are expensive