Super Bulls Only

[adiggs]

Thanks for the info. In the main thread, it was pointed out that Q1 deliveries were announced at 1:05 pm PST after close April 2. That would make my strategy very lucrative if that happens again. My biggest concern would be getting through to my broker on the phone to exercise the puts/calls as there is always a big delay on hold before reaching someone!

Big risk, big reward. But being dependent on your broker answering the phone on a timely basis - ugh

Very very curious to hear how this works out. I might try something like this next time around, but I'll be talking to Fidelity ahead of time to see what they support and so forth (I'll do my own due diligence - I'm responsible for me).

 

[vwman111]

I ended up buying 1050 and 1020 puts and 1220 and 1260 calls. Spent more than I was expecting but it’s worth the play IMO. It’s basically all free money anyways using half of my profits from sold puts and calls last week and this week.

If the deliveries aren’t announced tomorrow pre-market I should be able to sell them all off for 50% loss. I’m okay with that. I will then try my after market announcement play buying barely OTM puts and calls just before close for pennies and hoping for an an announcement and big move in either way in the 30 mins after close.

If you get through to your broker to exercise the options, are you able to sell the stock that day at AH price? Or do you need to wait until it clears and trade the following week?

 

[pz1975]

If you get through to your broker to exercise the options, are you able to sell the stock that day at AH price? Or do you need to wait until it clears and trade the following week?

If the stock goes up, my plan is to sell my stock at the higher AH price and exercise the same number of shares at the call strike price and keep the difference. That way I will have the same number of shares on Monday but with extra cash.

If the stock goes down, my plan is to sell my stock at the strike price of the puts and buy back the same number of shares at the lower AH price. Then, if the stock price keeps dropping over the next few days, I would use the profits to buy more shares. I would end up with the same amount of cash but more shares.

I'm not 100% sure they will let me do this, but that is what I will try for. That eliminates my risk of the stock changing direction between after hours Thursday and the opening bell Monday.

 

[vwman111]

If the stock goes up, my plan is to sell my stock at the higher AH price and exercise the same number of shares at the call strike price and keep the difference. That way I will have the same number of shares on Monday but with extra cash.

If the stock goes down, my plan is to sell my stock at the strike price of the puts and buy back the same number of shares at the lower AH price. Then, if the stock price keeps dropping over the next few days, I would use the profits to buy more shares. I would end up with the same amount of cash but more shares.

I'm not 100% sure they will let me do this, but that is what I will try for. That eliminates my risk of the stock changing direction between after hours Thursday and the opening bell Monday.

Does that mean you will be selling:
- existing stock you have and therefore available in your account to sell immediately AH
- hope that you get access to the exercised stock and be able to sell it immediately in AH
-sell the stock short knowing you will get the assigned shares in your account at the strike price over the weekend

 

[pz1975]

Does that mean you will be selling:
- existing stock you have and therefore available in your account to sell immediately AH
- hope that you get access to the exercised stock and be able to sell it immediately in AH
-sell the stock short knowing you will get the assigned shares in your account at the strike price over the weekend

Yes to number 1 - I will sell my existing shares after hours at the higher price and replace them with the shares I buy at the lower price when I exercise the then in-the-money calls.

Number 2 would not work since I wouldn't get the shares until Monday.

Number 3 would work as well if your broker allows you to short sell shares after hours (I have never checked with mine as I have only very rarely done any sort of short selling - I prefer buying puts if I am bearish).

 

[vwman111]

Yes to number 1 - I will sell my existing shares after hours at the higher price and replace them with the shares I buy at the lower price when I exercise the then in-the-money calls.

Number 2 would not work since I wouldn't get the shares until Monday.

Number 3 would work as well if your broker allows you to short sell shares after hours (I have never checked with mine as I have only very rarely done any sort of short selling - I prefer buying puts if I am bearish).

@paydirt76 do you have any additional insight on the afterhour mechanics of this type of trade?

 

[paydirt76]

@paydirt76 do you have any additional insight on the afterhour mechanics of this type of trade?

You all are options degenerates! Love ya! Gotta think these things would generally work. Check with the broker/custodian first. If your custodian doesn't have humans (instead of chatbots), it might be good to find one like Schwab that does...

Exercising call or put up to 4:30pm or 4:15pm should give you that position (but agreed that there may be a day or more to wait on delivery of shares for settlement). Selling stock AH should allow buying stock through option exercise. One would think it would also be true for puts... In extended hours, don't remember the rules on shorting; worst case might be an uptick rule, but probably not because extended hours are the Wild West.

Check with the broker (and possibly an options specialist), especially how to trigger an extended hours exercise.

 

[pz1975]

I ended up buying 1050 and 1020 puts and 1220 and 1260 calls. Spent more than I was expecting but it’s worth the play IMO. It’s basically all free money anyways using half of my profits from sold puts and calls last week and this week.

If the deliveries aren’t announced tomorrow pre-market I should be able to sell them all off for 50% loss. I’m okay with that. I will then try my after market announcement play buying barely OTM puts and calls just before close for pennies and hoping for an an announcement and big move in either way in the 30 mins after close.

To give some closure to this, I ended up selling all of the calls this morning between 1215-1220 - net profit was $20,000 on a $9,000 investment.

 

[Buckminster]

Cross posting this from main thread for posterity:

007
@TrendTrader007
·
6s

$tsla it takes big balls to make big money in the market sellers of $tsla here -if you're going to settle for a few millions here and there without squeezing the shorts all the way that is your problem- i am going all in for the biggest score of my life

this was my last post on TMC - forever- goodbye and goodluck!!!

This was my post that I opened this thread with:

Without 007 making any appearances, we need to get our swagger back, now that there are almost zero uncertainties on Tesla achieving greatness. I will make a start:

April 2019 following Q1 earnings, Model Y event yada yada
SP = $700

June 2019 following Q2 S&P inclusion
SP = $1000

Is anyone brave enough to outbid me? Stupid enough gets you no points - that is what I'm here for.

Talking about stupid, I have to change my J19 300s for something a little longer term so I would appreciate your consensus on the $700 figure before pulling the trigger mid November (Jun 19 or J20, 300s?).

Now in mostly 1200 and 1500 Jun 21s. Some went up 53% yesterday. I hope TT007 comes back again - maybe the odd cameo. First you call in rich. Then you log-off TMC rich..
anthonyj also made an appearance:

Possibly $5,000-$8,000 by end of next month if S&P reduces float like I expect it to

Pretty tame compared to me at $10k:

If I had to guess at stock price movements:

Today - $1208
Pre ER (20th July) - $1300
Post ER (30th July) - $1400
Pre S&P announcement (14th August) - $1500
Post S&P announcement (~16 August) - $1600
6 days later (22 August) - Spike to $10k (could last seconds or days) - market cap>AMZN@$1.4Tn
7 days later (23 August) - $5000
15 days later (31 August) - $2500 (I don't expect funds to meet the 7 day requirement)
Pre battery day (14th Sep) - $2000
Post battery day (16th Sep) - $2200
Post P&D (3rd Oct) - $2500
Post ER (1st Nov) - $2700 ($500Bn market cap Vs Facebook at $665)

How are Bailie Gifford for example structured? Do they have limit orders in place where the traders are authorised to sell above? Or would they hold an emergency board meeting to authorise selling?

Who is ready for the rollercoaster of your lives?

Posted this 72 hours ago. I have already proven to be bearish in the short term.

Got lots of funnies (as well likes) because apparently $10k could be on the high side. I haven't seen a convincing argument on why $10k is not realistic for a few seconds at least but happy to reduce in line with anthonyj if I do get to see one. We have talked a lot about indexes buying up. No one has said that all the investors could want a piece of the action. Imagine if Buffett's minion that bought AAPL decided to buy a piece. Factchecking talking about shareholders not selling below $5k:
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1280254379740876800

As superbulls, we need to start prepping for the great transition - it could all happen very quickly.

1. Pre S&P inclusion where you should be able to make money
2. Post S&P where you need to be careful about losing it
3. Boring price rises for ever more. This is where we will all make the most money. Just remember 50% a year rather than a day could be the max. No more risky options required or recommended.

 

[paydirt76]

Got lots of funnies (as well likes) because apparently $10k could be on the high side.

It could happen. For a moment. Wouldn't expect it to linger within 25% of that price ($10k). But got discounted fair value of autos alone around $2,200-$2,300 but most people don't see/understand that yet. That meaning the leverage Tesla has in scaling their business further where each Gigafactory yields around 100% ROIC.

Agreed that likely to be a post inclusion hangover. For a party like we are having already, every party demands a hangover... eventually.

 

[Buckminster]

Did Einstein own LEAPS? So glad I leveraged up to 1200s and 1500s recently!

 

[Unpilot]

10K you say? Hell that is AFTER a 10 to one split.

That my friends is bullish.

 

[Buckminster]

For historical purposes:

okay fine
i give up - my very last post ever
you guys win
i am leaving TMC fpr good- forever
i just made $5 million in less than an hour
i guarantee i will be richer than all of you combined within 5 years
goodbye!
$tsla

---

Mod: I'll give you a hand with that, I think almost everyone is fed up with the chest-thumping and bullying.

 

[Buckminster]

This is entering bubble territory. But I believe it can hit $700 before dropping down to $350ish. Please, if you are using margin, start deleveraging. I think Tesla can be the world biggest company, in 5-8 years, not now!

unless FSD rewrite is actually convincing

Am I the only one that thinks we need to double again to get to bubble territory?

 

[Buckminster]

Broken out to 461 today.
4D rewrite and ER imminent.
S&P inclusion still on the cards.
It is a great time to be a superbull!

I have speculated on a spike to ~2k following inclusion. I think that this is less likely following this lengthy period ahead of inclusion. Many institutions will figure out a mitigation plan.
Spike to 1500 and then a drop to 700 would be my current guess. I'm not expecting >600 ahead of inclusion - even with ride sharing and Elon talking about FSD approvals being imminent.

 

[joefee]

Have been a long since the IPO ... .bought a MS & M3 cash and I’m building a custom home with the profits.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Bump!

 

[P3dStealth]

I understand none of this talk. Just tell me how to make money please.

Is this time to buy tesla stock? I seem to have lost like two full self drivings in my portfolio today. Thinking of getting away from the ETFs chase put me in.

 

[MABMAB]

I understand none of this talk. Just tell me how to make money please.

Is this time to buy tesla stock? I seem to have lost like two full self drivings in my portfolio today. Thinking of getting away from the ETFs chase put me in.

If you need other people to answer such questions for you you will lose money. Do some hard work, determine what you can sleep with. If folks could reliably tell you how to make money they would do it themselves and keep quiet. Others lost more, others lost less.

 

[Buckminster]

Lots of reasons to be super bullish these days.

Main reason in the short term is S&P inclusion. Election almost behind us, 5 qtrs of profit, indexes have had time to prepare - could happen anytime.

In the long term, profitability could be well above even the most bullish models if Tesla stop selling vehicles and keep them on Tesla Network (TN) themselves.
Gross profits could be 80% for several years.

Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model