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Super Bulls Only
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
History does not favor timeliness of anything r/t TSLA.
This is one of the reasons I think specific OTM options foolish
Along with the fact they have no intrinsic value.
History does favor the TSLA story eventually working out.
If I were to hold options, it would be LEAPS, deep ITM
My early minimum price target was always 2000-3000 and I am more bullish
But I might be old when it gets there.
This is one of the reasons I think specific OTM options foolish
Along with the fact they have no intrinsic value.
History does favor the TSLA story eventually working out.
If I were to hold options, it would be LEAPS, deep ITM
My early minimum price target was always 2000-3000 and I am more bullish
But I might be old when it gets there.
jeewee3000
Active Member
No, but they'll gain it soon.
"oTm oPtIoNs HaVe No InTrInSiC vAlUe"
Yours - a superbull
bdy0627
Active Member
History does demonstrate a near perfect track record of fairly rapid strong recoveries from big dips. IMO, that's the lowest risk and most dependable time for OTM call options. Trying to predict the timeline of any other moves is challenging to the point of being nearly futile.
Based on your photo, I would say you're pretty old already. Sorry to point that out to you....
I'm playing near OTM LEAPS. I gained, then I lost. I've lost my shirt but not my pants (trousers over here in the UK) and definitely not my shorts.... Pants are what you guys are now calling tighty-whitey's. I may or may not being going commando...
This is like playing only black on roulette - you've got to win eventually... The thing that goes in my favour is that Tesla finances have turned black. Just waiting for my portfolio to follow suit (suit - do you see what I did there..)
This is like playing only black on roulette - you've got to win eventually... The thing that goes in my favour is that Tesla finances have turned black. Just waiting for my portfolio to follow suit (suit - do you see what I did there..)
There is definitely an opportunity to make higher returns if you time options right. But the way I look at it, Tesla has a good chance of returning 10-20X or more over the next 5-10 years, as it has in the past (almost 20X since 2010 IPO). But in the short term (1-2 years) anything can happen.
Warren Buffett has explained the risk in the context of Berkshire Hathaway stock, which is much less volatile than Tesla:
"Berkshire, itself, provides some vivid examples of how price randomness in the short term can obscure long-
term growth in value. For the last 53 years, the company has built value by reinvesting its earnings and letting
compound interest work its magic. Year by year, we have moved forward. Yet Berkshire shares have suffered four
truly major dips. Here are the gory details:
Period High Low Percentage Decrease
March 1973-January 1975 93 38 (59.1%)
10/2/87-10/27/87 4,250 2,675 (37.1%)
6/19/98-3/10/2000 80,900 41,300 (48.9%)
9/19/08-3/5/09 147,000 72,400 (50.7%)
This table offers the strongest argument I can muster against ever using borrowed money to own stocks.
There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your
positions aren’t immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines
and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions.
In the next 53 years our shares (and others) will experience declines resembling those in the table.
No one can tell you when these will happen. The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.
When major declines occur, however, they offer extraordinary opportunities to those who are not handicapped
by debt. That’s the time to heed these lines from Kipling’s If
:
'If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs . . .
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting . . .
If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim . . .
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you...
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.'"
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2017ltr.pdf
Buffett is discussing this in the context of margin/borrowed $ but IMO call options are no different. It's a personal decision but I'd rather leave some short term profits on the table to make sure I don't miss out on a great long term opportunity.
Also, I have seen plenty of very experienced investors on TMC buy TSLA options and then start to freak out when the SP drops dramatically and the value of their options plummet 90% or more. Hard for even very savvy investors to make good decisions when you are freaking out.
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K_Dizzle
Member
Let me help you out. Next years 4/20, we’ll be above $420. Trade accordingly
EVNow
Well-Known Member
As long as you are months away from expiration, it really doesn't matter whether something is ITM or OTM. All that matters is for a given change in SP, how much will the option price change as a %.
ITM calls move much less than OTM calls for the same % movement of SP.
As an example, J19 250 calls moved by 155% between 10/19 when the SP was $260 and yesterday. But 400 calls moved by 436%. The SP moved by 33%. So, C250 had a 5x leverage and C400 had > 10x leverage.
Also, the farther away the expiration, lower the movement. For the same dates, J21 calls moved 69% and 87%, as an example. I've calculated these by looking at the final ask price, since final sale prices are not reliable because of sporadic trading.
Ofcourse, the % movements will also get reflected when the price goes down. C400 will go much further down than C250. In other words, it is just the age old question of risk vs rewards.
BTW, it is not necessary that further out calls always have better ROI. J20C500 moved by 160% vs 117% by J20C700. This will change if the SP starts getting close to 700. It seems for a given SP range, there are particular OTM calls that have the best ROI.
Anyway, this is my novice observation.
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dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I guess I shouldn't be here as I'm an uber bear. I can practically guarantee that TSLA won't see a $4k SP within the next 6 months.
shlokavica22
Member
Let's see who is super bull here 
What's the current total Delta for your TSLA position?
What would be the total Delta if price moves 100% by the end of 2019?
What's the current total Delta for your TSLA position?
What would be the total Delta if price moves 100% by the end of 2019?
So far my delta is 1 Founder's Roadster, 1 Model S P100D, 1 Model X P90D, 1 LR Model 3, 4 Power Walls, a 2020 Founder's Roadster reservation plus about $150k cash. If price moves 100%, my delta will go up about $7M cash, since I don't have room for any more carsLet's see who is super bull here
What's the current total Delta for your TSLA position?
What would be the total Delta if price moves 100% by the end of 2019?
Bob, why are you so bearish. If price moves 100% surely you could add a garage so you can pick which color 2020 Roadster fits your mood.So far my delta is 1 Founder's Roadster, 1 Model S P100D, 1 Model X P90D, 1 LR Model 3, 4 Power Walls, a 2020 Founder's Roadster reservation plus about $150k cash. If price moves 100%, my delta will go up about $7M cash, since I don't have room for any more cars
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Is this after tax or beforeSo far my delta is 1 Founder's Roadster, 1 Model S P100D, 1 Model X P90D, 1 LR Model 3, 4 Power Walls, a 2020 Founder's Roadster reservation plus about $150k cash. If price moves 100%, my delta will go up about $7M cash, since I don't have room for any more cars