It does matter ITM or OTM. IF the trade does not go your way, OTM=sucker bet.
Novice? you said it.
risk v reward? Exactly, hence ITM for me
Leverage kills when it is wrong
I do not buy lottery tickets.
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Super Bulls Only
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
It does matter ITM or OTM. IF the trade does not go your way, OTM=sucker bet.
Novice? you said it.
risk v reward? Exactly, hence ITM for me
Leverage kills when it is wrong
I do not buy lottery tickets.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Exactly how I view it. There was almost 3 years sideways consolidation $tsla from 2010 to 2013 then a 6X move from $30 to $194 within exactly 4 quarters from October 2012 to September 2013 and actually a 7.76X move from low of $25.52 to $194.50 from August 2012 low to September 2013 high.
This was of course followed by a steep correction from $194.50 to $116.10 over next 2 months bottoming in November 2013
40% correction enough to wipe out super leveraged players and smack down calls super hard
Then off this baby went hard to the races up 2.25X over next 3 months into February 2014
Move a decimal to the right and you get prices comparable to current situation
Doesn’t mean it’s gonna work out exactly the same but it’s the approximate time frames that I’m talking about
Dude! I could if I wanted to quit my full time job and sit and plot all my $tsla moves for the next 10 years right from the beach
Doesn’t mean I’ll be right, in fact I’ll be wrong 90% of time
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No problem if the gain is much more than 10x
K_Dizzle
Member
Oh god please stop, I can only get so erect. I’d be hitting 8 digits if we see 100% pop by JanLet's see who is super bull here
What's the current total Delta for your TSLA position?
What would be the total Delta if price moves 100% by the end of 2019?
adiggs
Well-Known Member
This seems like a good super bull idea/ concept:
Various people have talked about TSLA being added to the S&P 500 (including me), and we have different mental models of why / when that will happen.
Interesting idea for me - the DJIA doesn't have an automotive presence (GM or Ford). Automotive manufacturing seems like a big deal - I wonder how big TSLA will be before the DJIA folks decide they want to add it?
When I first had this thought (minutes ago), my next thought was "you could swap TSLA in for GE". Except then I did a few seconds of research and discovered GE has already been swapped out.
Still - give it a year or 3 of increasing evidence of how big TSLA is and how much US manufacturing the company is doing, and it seems like a no-brainer addition to the DJIA when some other company stumbles.
Also worth noting - I figure going into the DJIA is more of a status thing than it is a direct share acquisition thing (where being added to the S&P 500 is more of a share acquisition thing).
Still - that'd be pretty sweet.
Various people have talked about TSLA being added to the S&P 500 (including me), and we have different mental models of why / when that will happen.
Interesting idea for me - the DJIA doesn't have an automotive presence (GM or Ford). Automotive manufacturing seems like a big deal - I wonder how big TSLA will be before the DJIA folks decide they want to add it?
When I first had this thought (minutes ago), my next thought was "you could swap TSLA in for GE". Except then I did a few seconds of research and discovered GE has already been swapped out.
Still - give it a year or 3 of increasing evidence of how big TSLA is and how much US manufacturing the company is doing, and it seems like a no-brainer addition to the DJIA when some other company stumbles.
Also worth noting - I figure going into the DJIA is more of a status thing than it is a direct share acquisition thing (where being added to the S&P 500 is more of a share acquisition thing).
Still - that'd be pretty sweet.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
thank you for thinking outside the box and opening up the super bull forum. I got a feeling this will become the single most popular thread on TMC especially as the SP climbs steadily and will provide an invaluable contrarian indicator from timing standpoint.
It seems to me that $700 within a year is a really safe bet with real potential for appreciation to $1600 or so by 2021 January
That puts $tsla market cap anywhere from minimum of $120 B to $270 B which again could prove to be a conservative guess
I got a few $700 January 2020 calls plus some others at $500 to $600 range in same timeframe but I decided to make a relatively conservative bet on $400 January 2021 calls which is my major position. My rationale is that while I may not make a killing like those of you who bet big on $700 J 2020 calls, I’m still looking at a tax efficient 4.5X to 15X ROI over the next 26 months without totally losing my shirt if I’m wrong
TrendTrader007
Active Member
That’s approximately 54 to 60 months! $tsla quarterly chart is begging for a bollinger breakout. It takes no genius to figure out that the next stock price move will be of major significance and likely of big enough magnitude to trigger a 2X to 5X move in stock price over the next several quarters. Place your bets accordingly. Of course, not an advice
TrendTrader007
Active Member
shlokavica22
Member
Some people don't realize there is a shift in the dynamic impacting TSLA's stock price.
It's a matter of time (less than a year from now) the price jumps past the boiling point shorts can stand. When it happens, the conservative longs will realize the missed opportunity and will indeed look for more "aggressive" approach.
What's your reasoning for going for 400 2021 leaps instead of 400 2020 leaps? Priority on lower theta over higher Delta/Gamma?
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Trying to give myself a bigger rope in case I’m wrong
Also tax efficiency
This is the super bulls thread - not the mad bulls thread!
If we're above $420 on 4/20, then me be sparking a blunt at 4:20 mon...
Will you adopt me?So far my delta is 1 Founder's Roadster, 1 Model S P100D, 1 Model X P90D, 1 LR Model 3, 4 Power Walls, a 2020 Founder's Roadster reservation plus about $150k cash. If price moves 100%, my delta will go up about $7M cash, since I don't have room for any more cars
If Tesla sells between 80% to 120% more cars per year, the revenue will rise about 60% to 100% per year (assuming cheaper cars will be introduced). So with a constant market cap/revenue multiple that would mean the stock price rises about 60% to 100% per year. Right? Did I overlook something or is it actually as good as it sounds?
It's better. If Tesla makes more cars via efficiency improvements as opposed to increased assembly lines. Then the GM per car will go up as well as the number of cars. Put together, the percentage net profit increase could be higher than the percentage car increase.
In other words, after GM covers fixed costs for the quarter, each additional car's GM is net profit.
Say 4k cars with 10k GM per, that covers 40 million in fixed costs. Add 10% more cars, that is 4 million net profit. Add 10% again, another 4 million. So going from 4.4k to 4.8 k was a 100% profit increase.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
This is actually not a bad move at all especially for those who have no other options to have an adequate long exposure
I once upon a time took out a home equity loan and put all of it in a stock that more than doubled over the next 3 months
Of course I don’t endorse it and definitely not an advice
What the f. This isn’t super bull, it’s lunatic gambling bull in china store.
Don’t sell your home to buy Tesla, please.
Just buy options.
Edit: and if you think abt selling your home to exercise those options.... don’t!! Roll your options.
Don’t sell your home to buy Tesla, please.
Just buy options.
Edit: and if you think abt selling your home to exercise those options.... don’t!! Roll your options.
Absolutely, this is what I wrote in the main thread a couple of weeks ago:
Can I suggest new definitions (is there anything more important going on today?):
If your mean estimate is the following by June 2019:
<$400 - blah
$400 - $600 - Bull
$600 - $1000 - Superbull
$1000+ - cuckoo and I love you for it (much needed to ward off the evil shorts)
Remember we are talking your MEAN AVERAGE estimate. It is easy to be conservative - what do you really think it is gonna be. If you lost your house because you estimated too low, would that make you think differently?
I am a super bull in this context. Just because I think that the SP will most likely be at these levels doesn't mean that there is not a ~10% chance of TSLA dropping to $250 again. 10% is too high IMO to talk about selling houses. I have been burnt by my overly optimistic estimates as has 007 and others. You need to stay in the game to keep playing at the high stakes table.
