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Super Bulls Only

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Buckminster, Oct 25, 2018.

  1. nursebee

    nursebee Member

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    It does matter ITM or OTM. IF the trade does not go your way, OTM=sucker bet.
    Novice? you said it.
    risk v reward? Exactly, hence ITM for me
    Leverage kills when it is wrong
    I do not buy lottery tickets.
     
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  2. TrendTrader007

    TrendTrader007 Active Member

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    #42 TrendTrader007, Nov 6, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
    Exactly how I view it. There was almost 3 years sideways consolidation $tsla from 2010 to 2013 then a 6X move from $30 to $194 within exactly 4 quarters from October 2012 to September 2013 and actually a 7.76X move from low of $25.52 to $194.50 from August 2012 low to September 2013 high.
    This was of course followed by a steep correction from $194.50 to $116.10 over next 2 months bottoming in November 2013
    40% correction enough to wipe out super leveraged players and smack down calls super hard
    Then off this baby went hard to the races up 2.25X over next 3 months into February 2014
    Move a decimal to the right and you get prices comparable to current situation
    Doesn’t mean it’s gonna work out exactly the same but it’s the approximate time frames that I’m talking about
    Dude! I could if I wanted to quit my full time job and sit and plot all my $tsla moves for the next 10 years right from the beach
    Doesn’t mean I’ll be right, in fact I’ll be wrong 90% of time
     
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  3. jbih

    jbih Member

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    No problem if the gain is much more than 10x
     
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  4. K_Dizzle

    K_Dizzle Member

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    Oh god please stop, I can only get so erect. I’d be hitting 8 digits if we see 100% pop by Jan
     
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  5. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    This seems like a good super bull idea/ concept:


    Various people have talked about TSLA being added to the S&P 500 (including me), and we have different mental models of why / when that will happen.

    Interesting idea for me - the DJIA doesn't have an automotive presence (GM or Ford). Automotive manufacturing seems like a big deal - I wonder how big TSLA will be before the DJIA folks decide they want to add it?

    When I first had this thought (minutes ago), my next thought was "you could swap TSLA in for GE". Except then I did a few seconds of research and discovered GE has already been swapped out.


    Still - give it a year or 3 of increasing evidence of how big TSLA is and how much US manufacturing the company is doing, and it seems like a no-brainer addition to the DJIA when some other company stumbles.


    Also worth noting - I figure going into the DJIA is more of a status thing than it is a direct share acquisition thing (where being added to the S&P 500 is more of a share acquisition thing).

    Still - that'd be pretty sweet.
     
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  6. TrendTrader007

    TrendTrader007 Active Member

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    thank you for thinking outside the box and opening up the super bull forum. I got a feeling this will become the single most popular thread on TMC especially as the SP climbs steadily and will provide an invaluable contrarian indicator from timing standpoint.
    It seems to me that $700 within a year is a really safe bet with real potential for appreciation to $1600 or so by 2021 January
    That puts $tsla market cap anywhere from minimum of $120 B to $270 B which again could prove to be a conservative guess
    I got a few $700 January 2020 calls plus some others at $500 to $600 range in same timeframe but I decided to make a relatively conservative bet on $400 January 2021 calls which is my major position. My rationale is that while I may not make a killing like those of you who bet big on $700 J 2020 calls, I’m still looking at a tax efficient 4.5X to 15X ROI over the next 26 months without totally losing my shirt if I’m wrong
     
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  7. TrendTrader007

    TrendTrader007 Active Member

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    149A69EC-5185-4848-A712-B0589BE74C7E.png Of course prediction for $tsla future stock price appreciation in the current pre-euphoria stage is very easy and not at all an intellectually challenging exercise. Just look at the cup shaped base over base pattern on long term quarterly chart going back last 18 to 20 quarters
    That’s approximately 54 to 60 months! $tsla quarterly chart is begging for a bollinger breakout. It takes no genius to figure out that the next stock price move will be of major significance and likely of big enough magnitude to trigger a 2X to 5X move in stock price over the next several quarters. Place your bets accordingly. Of course, not an advice
     
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  8. TrendTrader007

    TrendTrader007 Active Member

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    [​IMG]


    ·
    1s

    I Think of $tsla not as a $348 stock going to $700 to $1600 but instead as a $34 stock headed to $70 to $160 over the next 2 years The latter scenario seems much more plausible But percentage moves exactly the same happy shorts don’t think like this otherwise no short squeeze
     
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  9. shlokavica22

    shlokavica22 Member

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    Some people don't realize there is a shift in the dynamic impacting TSLA's stock price.
    It's a matter of time (less than a year from now) the price jumps past the boiling point shorts can stand. When it happens, the conservative longs will realize the missed opportunity and will indeed look for more "aggressive" approach.

    What's your reasoning for going for 400 2021 leaps instead of 400 2020 leaps? Priority on lower theta over higher Delta/Gamma?
     
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  10. TrendTrader007

    TrendTrader007 Active Member

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    Trying to give myself a bigger rope in case I’m wrong
    Also tax efficiency
     
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  11. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Apparently, @ValueAnalyst sold their house to buy more TSLA...
    ValueAnalyst on Twitter

     
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  12. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

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    This is the super bulls thread - not the mad bulls thread!
     
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  13. wipster

    wipster Gold Member

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    If we're above $420 on 4/20, then me be sparking a blunt at 4:20 mon...
     
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  14. wipster

    wipster Gold Member

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    Will you adopt me?
     
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  15. jbih

    jbih Member

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    If Tesla sells between 80% to 120% more cars per year, the revenue will rise about 60% to 100% per year (assuming cheaper cars will be introduced). So with a constant market cap/revenue multiple that would mean the stock price rises about 60% to 100% per year. Right? Did I overlook something or is it actually as good as it sounds?
     
  16. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    It's better. If Tesla makes more cars via efficiency improvements as opposed to increased assembly lines. Then the GM per car will go up as well as the number of cars. Put together, the percentage net profit increase could be higher than the percentage car increase.

    In other words, after GM covers fixed costs for the quarter, each additional car's GM is net profit.
    Say 4k cars with 10k GM per, that covers 40 million in fixed costs. Add 10% more cars, that is 4 million net profit. Add 10% again, another 4 million. So going from 4.4k to 4.8 k was a 100% profit increase.
     
  17. TrendTrader007

    TrendTrader007 Active Member

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    This is actually not a bad move at all especially for those who have no other options to have an adequate long exposure
    I once upon a time took out a home equity loan and put all of it in a stock that more than doubled over the next 3 months
    Of course I don’t endorse it and definitely not an advice
     
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  18. dw4ngg

    dw4ngg Member

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    What the f. This isn’t super bull, it’s lunatic gambling bull in china store.

    Don’t sell your home to buy Tesla, please.

    Just buy options.

    Edit: and if you think abt selling your home to exercise those options.... don’t!! Roll your options.
     
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  19. Buckminster

    Buckminster Member

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    Absolutely, this is what I wrote in the main thread a couple of weeks ago:
    Can I suggest new definitions (is there anything more important going on today?):
    If your mean estimate is the following by June 2019:
    <$400 - blah
    $400 - $600 - Bull
    $600 - $1000 - Superbull
    $1000+ - cuckoo and I love you for it (much needed to ward off the evil shorts)
    Remember we are talking your MEAN AVERAGE estimate. It is easy to be conservative - what do you really think it is gonna be. If you lost your house because you estimated too low, would that make you think differently?


    I am a super bull in this context. Just because I think that the SP will most likely be at these levels doesn't mean that there is not a ~10% chance of TSLA dropping to $250 again. 10% is too high IMO to talk about selling houses. I have been burnt by my overly optimistic estimates as has 007 and others. You need to stay in the game to keep playing at the high stakes table.
     
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  20. SpaceCash

    SpaceCash Member

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    By your definition, I'm a superbull with cuckoo inclinations/dreams
     
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