jhm
Well-Known Member
I really like the first chat on this page, Superchargers. Open stations in Europe are clearly closing thr gap with open stations in Europe. The gap is only about 20 stations. Asia has a long ways to go to catch up, but a year from now the three continents could all be about the same level.
My view has been that the number of SC stations (not stalls) needs to be proportional to annual sales. Since the three continental markets are all expected to be about the same size, this theory would lead to the hypothesis that the number of stations need to be about the same. Thus, Europe and Asia are catching up with NA.
BTW, the number of stalls will need to be proportionate to the size of the existing times utilization. That is, the number of stalls will eventually be determined by service levels demanded by existing customers when capacity becomes more of the issue. Since NA has a substatial lead on the rest of the world in existing fleet sizes, it makes sense that the stall count would be quite ahead. This leads to the hypotheses that the average number of stalls per station should go up as a market matures or that when comparing two geographies, the one that is more mature will tend to have a higher number of stalls per station. I have not analyzed the data yet. So this a priori hypothesis can be properly confirmed or rejected based on data.
The number of stations, however, have direct bearing on how marketable a car is in a particular area. I live in Atlanta, just 2 miles from the Decatur store which has 4 SC stalls. I test drove a car last Saturday. In discussion, the sales rep asked about where we like to go for trips. Top on our list are Asheville, Charleston and maybe Orlando, but we prefer to fly to Orlando. It turns out that there are still no SC stations along the way to Asheville or Charleston. These are typical vacation desyinations for folks living in Atlanta. They are far enough away (four and six hours of driving) that you really need charging along the way. So despite all the new stations in the US and two within 15 miles of my home, the SC network is sadly lacking for the destinations that matter to my family. How does this impact our decision to buy? Frankly, it is discouraging. If there we a station near Anderson or Greenvile, SC, we would be very excited about taking our next trip to Asheville in our new Model S, but without it, we are left with the frustration that we will have to postpone that trip indefinitely or just take our old car. So this is a real speed bump in the sales process. We've already put off buying a Model S for one year waiting for this SC in South Carolina to materialize. Shall we wait another year? I am sure we are not the only potential buyers in the Atlanta area who have held back on buying a Model S because of inadequate SC coverage. Some of the best market research that Tesla could do is survey recent shoppers who test drive but have not purchased to find out what specific SC locations they would most like to see open up in the near future. I could tell them exactly where to place them to win my business. So each potential buyer has particular preferences about where the next station should go. Part of optimizing sales rates in any particular area comes down to understanding where local buyers need SC stations to be and putting them there. This is why the sales rate will be proportional to the number of stations. As stations are added, this enhances the sales rate in surrounding areas. Placing a SC in say Anderson, SC, would enhance sales in Atlanta and north Georgia, but also Asheville, Charlotte and the Tri Cities in North Carolina and Spartenburg, Columbia, and Greenville in South Carolina.
Basically we need to recognize that inadequate SC coverage in specific geographies pose constraints on demand. Now at a macro level, Tesla is predominantly supply constrained, not demand constrained. But at a micro level there are many areas where demand is constrained by gaps in SC coverage. I am sure that the FUDsters do not understand the way in which demand is constrained. If they did, then they would also have to recognize that it is within Tesla's power to enhance demand anywhere it likes simply by planting new SC stations where they will open up the most demand.
My view has been that the number of SC stations (not stalls) needs to be proportional to annual sales. Since the three continental markets are all expected to be about the same size, this theory would lead to the hypothesis that the number of stations need to be about the same. Thus, Europe and Asia are catching up with NA.
BTW, the number of stalls will need to be proportionate to the size of the existing times utilization. That is, the number of stalls will eventually be determined by service levels demanded by existing customers when capacity becomes more of the issue. Since NA has a substatial lead on the rest of the world in existing fleet sizes, it makes sense that the stall count would be quite ahead. This leads to the hypotheses that the average number of stalls per station should go up as a market matures or that when comparing two geographies, the one that is more mature will tend to have a higher number of stalls per station. I have not analyzed the data yet. So this a priori hypothesis can be properly confirmed or rejected based on data.
The number of stations, however, have direct bearing on how marketable a car is in a particular area. I live in Atlanta, just 2 miles from the Decatur store which has 4 SC stalls. I test drove a car last Saturday. In discussion, the sales rep asked about where we like to go for trips. Top on our list are Asheville, Charleston and maybe Orlando, but we prefer to fly to Orlando. It turns out that there are still no SC stations along the way to Asheville or Charleston. These are typical vacation desyinations for folks living in Atlanta. They are far enough away (four and six hours of driving) that you really need charging along the way. So despite all the new stations in the US and two within 15 miles of my home, the SC network is sadly lacking for the destinations that matter to my family. How does this impact our decision to buy? Frankly, it is discouraging. If there we a station near Anderson or Greenvile, SC, we would be very excited about taking our next trip to Asheville in our new Model S, but without it, we are left with the frustration that we will have to postpone that trip indefinitely or just take our old car. So this is a real speed bump in the sales process. We've already put off buying a Model S for one year waiting for this SC in South Carolina to materialize. Shall we wait another year? I am sure we are not the only potential buyers in the Atlanta area who have held back on buying a Model S because of inadequate SC coverage. Some of the best market research that Tesla could do is survey recent shoppers who test drive but have not purchased to find out what specific SC locations they would most like to see open up in the near future. I could tell them exactly where to place them to win my business. So each potential buyer has particular preferences about where the next station should go. Part of optimizing sales rates in any particular area comes down to understanding where local buyers need SC stations to be and putting them there. This is why the sales rate will be proportional to the number of stations. As stations are added, this enhances the sales rate in surrounding areas. Placing a SC in say Anderson, SC, would enhance sales in Atlanta and north Georgia, but also Asheville, Charlotte and the Tri Cities in North Carolina and Spartenburg, Columbia, and Greenville in South Carolina.
Basically we need to recognize that inadequate SC coverage in specific geographies pose constraints on demand. Now at a macro level, Tesla is predominantly supply constrained, not demand constrained. But at a micro level there are many areas where demand is constrained by gaps in SC coverage. I am sure that the FUDsters do not understand the way in which demand is constrained. If they did, then they would also have to recognize that it is within Tesla's power to enhance demand anywhere it likes simply by planting new SC stations where they will open up the most demand.
