I'd be a bit surprised about Paradise Valley Mall since Macerich is slating it for closure and conversion to multi-family by 2022-2025 depending on tenant shrinkage. First the food / beverage tenants vacate due to business failure from reduced pedestrian traffic counts, second the retail tenant shrinkage is occurring fast than anticipated due to retailers maintaining profitability with online presence and little overhead and little inventory loss due to failure to sell (especially if you stock dozens of sizes and colors of a single item like clothing), third if the cost per square foot for apartment rents or condo sales is higher than the profit from retail leases, then you'll convert to housing with limited first floor retail. Biltmore Fashion Park might last a bit longer due to high end retail, but there are rumblings of luxury retailers moving 100% online - Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Ralph Lauren, etc... again, because of overhead costs, ability to shift to popular items and not let items sit on shelves and die, ability to release new items weekly rather than just twice a year, etc., etc. Biltmore Fashion Park should be announcing mid-rise residential towers on the north side, commercial office towers on the south side (but office space is becoming obsolete as most companies don't need to shell out $4K to $18K per employee per year for office space... not all, but most)... then the 'inner loop' of shops and anchor tenants could be removed and rebuilt as residential mid-rise with ground floor services, retail, restaurants. Right now, the current F&B tenants cannot make it and are being given drastic lease reductions (up to 80% off) just to keep from vacating and leaving the shopping center empty. I think a few other major retailers are now only operating on a percentage of gross sales rather than a price per square foot triple net lease. I advise different size companies on location intelligence and queueing theory - so see my other post on why this north Phoenix location is not too great in my opinion...
With that said, they're still possible at those locations, and the developers may provide the land for free, just to have some more traffic to their locations. I own The Clarendon Hotel in midtown Phoenix and offered my land for free to Tesla, for up to 12 supercharging stations, and my location is really pretty perfect - but I believe the downtown Phoenix location will be somewhere that has reduced power chargers along with a requirement that you pay for hourly parking.
Thanks/Ben
