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Superchargers and Future Capacity

Discussion in 'Charging Standards and Infrastructure' started by taurusking, Dec 9, 2014.

  1. taurusking

    taurusking Member

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    Hi All

    I am about to drive to Corsicana Super charger and I was wondering what will happen in the future say in 2016 or 2017 when there is mass production of Model X and Model S and not to mention Model E will be out in 2017.

    Do we have enough spots in each super charging locations to accommodate increase in the number of cars?

    Just wondering.:scared:

    Thanks
     
  2. Liz G

    Liz G P03056

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    My guess would be that Tesla would expand either the number of spots at charging locations or create more SC locations in the vicinity. This is basically what they have done in California and to some extent the Chicago area. So I assume that is what they will do nationwide. Expand as demand requires.
     
  3. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    There certainly aren't enough Superchargers to handle all those cars right now, no.

    However, Tesla is building Superchargers faster than they are building cars (proportionally,) and has enough money built in to the car prices to sustain that growth.

    As long as they keep setting two thousand per car aside for Superchargers and matching the rollout to production, there shouldn't be a problem no matter how many cars they build - there will just be a whole lot of Superchargers. :)
    Walter
     
  4. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Superchargers and Future

    This issue has been discussed many times. As Walter points out, it's a simple matter for Tesla to expand their supercharger network as they sell more cars and receive money through those sales to build out the network. It's not complicated.
     
  5. sublimaze1

    sublimaze1 8Dec2012 / Leeroy Jenkins

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    Not that this matters, but I have used the triangle chargers - maybe three dozen times (mostly Bellmead when I go see my daughter at drain-my-savings U) and only twice have I even seen another car at the charger. As Texas is not a "thoroughfare" yet, it doesn't matter. Until I-10 and Denton are done .. and then west Texas, it is going to be "zero" problem.
     
  6. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    This.

    Plus there are non linear benefits to supercharger throughput when expanding the number of stalls. The probability of finding an open slot rises over proportion.
     
  7. Kipernicus

    Kipernicus Model S Res#P1440

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    I still think that the endgame results in a rather significant infrastructure burden that Tesla has to maintain.
    Already we have seen upgrades, expansion, repair, and support costs that Tesla has to bear.

    I haven't done the math, but $2k per new car sounds like a wobbly pyramid that eventually will not be able to support the number of superchargers required to fulfill the "free for life" promise when there are millions of Teslas on the road.
     
  8. themacs

    themacs Member

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    The SC farthest south in California (San Juan Capistrano off the 5) is filled with Teslas waiting quite a bit lately. I have been told it is the busiest in the country and has 7 stations. I hope they expand it, however there is no more room. S. Cal is crowed and land is tough to come by. I'm sure they will figure it out but the area has more Teslas then anywhere in the US I have been told. The other day there were 12 sitting there, 7 charging and 5 waiting.
     
  9. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    We don't really have the information to judge that. The reason it could work is that cars aren't really "for life", and as new cars replace older cars there is another influx of money to maintain the chargers (which likely last a lot longer than the cars themselves)
    and add the facts that more chargers are only necessary up to a certain saturation point, and that other charging options are sure to develop eventually (there's only so long that other companies can drag their feet here) and it's possible it is quite sustainable.

    Neither you, nor I have done the math, but we can be pretty certain that Tesla has.
     
  10. Lloyd

    Lloyd Active Member

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    Also, Most owners use the supercharger network only for distance travel and trips. I believe with some exceptions that supercharger use is <10% of charging for the fleet. About 90% is done at home in your garage, or at a destination charging location where supercharging is not needed.
     
  11. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    And eventually they will get around to building the solar panels.
     
  12. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    I wonder if some of those could have charged to full at home and then taken a leisurely drive and skipped SJC. I know a lot of T drivers like to do 80, 90, 100 mph because it's fun, and "I can". But when they start figuring that it might take another 20-30 minutes waiting, maybe they can figure out how to do it differently. Most everyone has charging at home or near home. I personally skip two chargers when going to LA area, but I don't speed. Maybe 65. Yup, and I get there faster than some of these people who have to burn electrons and then sit and wait.

    Sorry. Just a suggestion. I know it's not popular, but it is doable. And then when I have a short trip, I, too, go 20 mph over the speed limit. It really is fun. But sometimes it's not too bright, you know?
     
  13. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    Well, maybe doing the math would help. :)

    Right now, I believe Tesla has around one stall for every forty cars - and aside from s couple specific locations in California, even travel holidays apart to be nowhere near capacity limits based on what I've read on the forum.

    If they keep that rate, that's about $80k per stall of budget (which has to cover the hardware, installation, and electricity for the average life of the funding cars - 10 years?)

    The hardware clearly costs Tesla less than $15k (we've been told on various occasions that it is basically 12 Model S on board chargers ganged together, and they sell the second charger option for $1200 with 25% gross margin on the car.)

    Installation, electricity, and repair will undoubtedly vary greatly, and the only one I have a way to estimate is the electric bill. If you take the 90% assumption from another post, and combine it with a 200k assumed average life, 3 miles per kWh, and the national average $.11 per kWh, you get 20k supercharger miles per car, 7MWh per car, 280 MWh for the initial budget, and a little over $30k in electricity (unless they install solar to offset it.)

    So the two big dollar items that should consume most of the cost are only half of the held budget with fairly conservative life assumptions for the cars. I'm thinking Tesla can manage it pretty easily and continue to add new stations as they build more cars. :)
    Walter
     
  14. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't the CHP give speeding tickets in SoCal? Going that fast for an extended period just to save on travel time is taking a big risk of a very expensive ticket.

    The SC network will expand as more Tesla's are sold. Tesla will figure it out. A usable SC network is essential to the success of the company.
     
  15. David99

    David99 Active Member

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    Let's discuss this once Tesla actually figured out how to make 1 million cars. So far they haven't figured out how to make the Model X yet. Not to sound negative, but making and selling a car in numbers like 500k to a million a year is anything but easy. We know how good Tesla is with matching their own predictions. It will be many years before we will run into this problem and then they will address it.
     
  16. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    There are economies of scale and scope. As VolkerP points out up thread, we know from queuing theory that adding incremental chargers to an existing station has a disproportionately great effect on reducing expected wait times. The economy of scope is even simpler: the Murdo, South Dakota SC is necessary for one car to travel along that route, but it will be a very long time before its 4 stalls need expanding.

    The point of this? As Tesla cars become more numerous, the cost per car to Tesla for providing Supercharger support will fall.
     
  17. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    My friend tells me that he has a radar detector that detects ten miles out, and that the radar detectors are better than what the cops have for radar. I dunno. Could be. He likes doing 100 alla time, and he doesn't get tickets.

    I couldn't live like that....
     
  18. macpacheco

    macpacheco Member

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    In some cases SCs will be expanded. In some cases new ones added. Its better to have a SC every 50 miles than one twice as large every 100 miles. Gives people the confidence to draw the battery closer to zero, which translate to faster recharging. Tesla knows how many stalls are used, so they will probably make that info available to owners so they could skip busy SCs if they got the range to make it to the next one.
    Plus don't discount the scale factor. Once there are a million Teslas in the road some businesses will be asking Tesla to install a super charger at their location, perhaps even paying for the privillege. 50k cars in the road is far from a tipping point, but once there are hundreds of thousands the game start to change, specially considering the income level of a typical Tesla owner.
    Lets also add the Giga Factory factor. Once Tesla has much cheaper and abundant Li Ion cells they will be tempted to have mostly self sufficient SC sites at sunny locations, that only sell power to the grid, specially at peak hours.
    In a lot of ways, a little bit of waiting is strategical for Tesla, just consider how fast they are being able to build the SC network. They will probably get even better at this with time.
     
  19. mknox

    mknox Well-Known Member

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    We know the Superchargers are "free for life" for Model S owners. Presumably that would be true of Model X as well. Perhaps not so for the Model E. A nominal fee would likely reduce the amount of "opportunity charging" and force Model E owners into only using them on road trips of when absolutely necessary thereby limiting demand.
     
  20. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    That's certainly an option, but given the economics (especially once Tesla has the coverage and can concentrate new stalls in the areas of highest use,) it doesn't seem necessary, and it would both require a bunch of new infrastructure to manage payment (possibly just a new server farm with everything done online,) and dilute Tesla's message and image.

    They could do it, but I'd be surprised if they did.
    Walter
     

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