Superchargers and Future Capacity

[mknox]

See my calcs at Solar power complemented Superchargers - Page 2. Solar canopies provide about one charge per day per stall. I would hope that most stalls get more use than that. Solar canopies are nice PR, but not much practical power generation.

Agreed. I think it would make a lot more sense for Tesla to offset the power used at Superchargers with larger solar farms strategically located. You'd lose the "PR" value, but gain practical

 

[liuping]

The supercharger canopy at Tesla may not be typical but it is interesting to note that it has approximately 100 panels. I would expect other canopies to be smaller but still likely to have more panels than the average home owners system.

Good discussion on this topic at http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/25792-Solar-power-complemented-Superchargers



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Just to put solar canopy production into perspective, the 100 panel's average daily production would be about enough to cover just four cars a day for 100 miles range each.

 

[scaesare]

Agreed. I think it would make a lot more sense for Tesla to offset the power used at Superchargers with larger solar farms strategically located. You'd lose the "PR" value, but gain practical

My understanding from earlier comments is that this is likely the plan, with the local canopies providing shade, PR value, and some small actual generation capability.

 

[ecarfan]

I think the long term plan for the SC solar canopies is to pair them with onsite battery storage which will allow Tesla to do peak demand price shaving and reduce their electricity costs, not to have the solar canopy provide power directly to the cars when the sun is out. Just my guess...

 

[green1]

The bigger benefit they can get is from local battery storage at the superchargers, this will offset time of use charges to save them a lot of money.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

My understanding from earlier comments is that this is likely the plan, with the local canopies providing shade, PR value, and some small actual generation capability.

... and zombie-apocalypse-proofing.
Lest we forget.

 

[Johan]

I agree with those that have the basic premise of: If Tesla has scaled up this much now, and in 5 years they sell x10 as many cars, then why just not build x10 as many Superchargers? Having an extremely good SC coverage wildly mitigates the need for very large capacity batteries. Even if battery technology evolves a lot in the next 10 years there's always going to be issues of cost and weight associated with larger batteries. Say in theory that you could have a 250kW battery in 10 years, with the same weight as now and the same cost as now - would you want one of those? If there was poor SC it might make sense for a few people to have such a large battery, but if there is good SC coverage it makes sense for noone to have it. Instead you could have a 120-140 kWh battery at 50% of the weight of today's 85kWh pack (better handling, better milage/Wh) and lower cost. In addition the SC network is such a great selling point, that its value as advertisment is hard to estimate (huge IMO).

 

[scaesare]

... and zombie-apocalypse-proofing.
Lest we forget.

Never forget the threat from above...

 

[Robert.Boston]

@Johan, for convenience to the driver, the battery size should allow most drivers to charge at home most days. I think the 60kWh Model S's range is about the floor (which is why Tesla dropped the 40kWh). I agree with your point, though, in the following sense: a big Supercharger network will mean that few drivers will be interested in paying for anything much larger than 260 miles of range.

Of course, there'll always be exceptions, but my guess is that 85kWh + lots of Superchargers will meet the demands of over 95% of drivers.

 

[cpa]

Regarding expansion of charging stalls at existing sites: I was told by an electrical contractor that when they built Moab and Blanding (four stalls each,) they provided conduit for six stalls when they dug up the parking lot. I would assume (key word) that the transformer is rated to handle up to six stalls. Accordingly, expansion could be done rather quickly once the permit were issued. I wonder how many existing sites have similar arrangements to be able to add 2-6 charging pedestals with minimal inconvenience.

Regarding solar canopies and battery backup: A chance encounter with a key individual (not from Tesla) indicated to me that outputs from the Solar City PV panel manufacturing plant near Buffalo and the gigafactory outside Reno will be more-or-less simultaneous to be able to retrofit existing sites with PV panels and battery backup.

It seems to me that the completion of the initial Supercharger build-out (~ 2017?) will be followed by a second round of expansion at selected existing sites and retrofitting of solar canopies and battery storage.

 

[macpacheco]

Let's not forget that the 85D and P85D increased range over their single motor brothers. I think that alone is a great reason to buy an 85D (if you can afford one).

 

[jerry33]

Let's not forget that the 85D and P85D increased range over their single motor brothers. I think that alone is a great reason to buy an 85D (if you can afford one).

Provided that your range limitation is highway and not city driving, but yeah, that's a great reason to purchase a D.

 

[wycolo]

Once when I pulled into Murdo SD SpC there was already a (Calif) car charging. Soon enough they drove away as I realised how rare and random this event must be. Lusk WY might even be rarer in usage and my visits there have always been solo. Hard to imagine the day when TM decides that 4 bays is no longer enough at these outposts.
--

 

[smartypnz]

Have a model S for 20 months now - expect to add a Model 3 when available. Given the $35k target price, I do not expect unlimited SC access. My expected final cost of the car w/options will be about $55k - this is my budgeted prediction. I expect one of these options to be SC access at around $2k

 

[macpacheco]

Provided that your range limitation is highway and not city driving, but yeah, that's a great reason to purchase a D.

The advantage of the D should be better at acceleration and regen, so I would think they would perform better in the city, and in roads with lots of ups and downs. Please correct me if I'm wrong...

It seems logical that the scenario in which the Ds wouldn't gain range are exactly cruise control on a level highway.

 

[Saghost]

The advantage of the D should be better at acceleration and regen, so I would think they would perform better in the city, and in roads with lots of ups and downs. Please correct me if I'm wrong...

It seems logical that the scenario in which the Ds wouldn't gain range are exactly cruise control on a level highway.

It remains to be seen what the S85D is best at - it might well be better at both.

For the P85D, it takes a penalty in city driving because it has a couple hundred extra pounds of mass to start and stop every time Hence the 86 MPGe rating versus the 88 of the P85.

However, the taller gearing on the front motor gives it a significant edge in freeway driving - almost 5% according to the EPA MPGe figures (94 vs 90.)

(The taller gearing reduces the friction losses in the drivetrain, and more importantly, the back-EMF ones - the motor naturally trying to work as a generator as speed increases.)
Walter

 

[wycolo]

I hope somewhere a PD and a D are planning to fill up at a SpC and chase each other over a long circular trial run, then compare notes. And the drivers should maybe switch at the midpoint.
--

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I hope somewhere a PD and a D are planning to fill up at a SpC and chase each other over a long circular trial run, then compare notes. And the drivers should maybe switch at the midpoint.
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I suggest two laps around the TX SuperCircuit!