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Superchargers Doubling in 2019?

Discussion in 'Supercharging & Charging Infrastructure' started by T3slaOwner, Sep 14, 2019.

  1. Evoforce

    Evoforce Active Member

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    You miss the big picture. It costs a lot for every station. Not hemorrhaging money on them was important on the bottom line to help the numbers look better for showing profitability. How can you ding Tesla so hard when no other auto manufacturer is voluntarily installing charging stations. Sure EA is, but they are court ordered and are also having problems keeping them working. I think most of us want more Superchargers and want them right now but reality is economics.
     
  2. T3slaOwner

    T3slaOwner Member Extraordinaire

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    When you say they have built more chargers than anyone else, that is true if you simply count them. The number of level 3 chargers per car on the road is actually going down for Tesla (building cars faster than chargers) while going up for other car companies. Electrify America is building units very quickly in the US. Until now there were no level 3 chargers I'm aware of other than 50 kW units. EA is building 250 kW units, no?

    The real point is the other EV companies have been addressing the issue in proportion to the requirement. They had mostly sold hybrids, so they didn't push for more level 3 charging until now. GM is partnering with Bechtel to put in a network. I expect that will be ready for their roll out of new EVs in the US when that happens.

    Tesla was getting chargers out there, but now with the model 3 being built in high volumes, they need to build enough chargers to give people confidence. Posters here like to brush off "range anxiety" as a non-issue, but it is a HUGE issue. They won't be able to sell to the public indefinitely if they don't make them comfortable with charging and in particular, charging on trips. It really is that simple. Superchargers need to be maybe 10 times more prevalent for Tesla to create enough visibility to make the masses comfortable. They also need to start making a regular profit every quarter so people have confidence they are going to be around.
     
  3. T3slaOwner

    T3slaOwner Member Extraordinaire

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    There are logistical issues with the V2 pedestals. That's the bottom line. If Tesla were serious about doubling the number of Superchargers, the bottle neck would not be pedestals.
     
  4. T3slaOwner

    T3slaOwner Member Extraordinaire

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    Yes, you are 100% right, the issue is economics. I suppose it is not reasonable to expect the CEO to be in touch with the economics of the company. No, that's for someone else like the board of directors maybe. Perhaps they might think about supervising Musk's tweets so he doesn't promise things that aren't economically possible... Any thoughts on that?

    The real issue though it what is required to build the brand and sell cars. So far he has been selling to what I will call the "enthusiasts". These are people who are willing to overlook the warts of the cars. In order to get the rest of the world to buy their cars once they've sold to all of the enthusiasts, is to make the cars drive like ICE, cost same as ICE and be as visible as ICE. Right now no one knows where the service centers are and they don't know how to charge a Tesla. That's why I get stopped at charging stations all the time by people asking me questions. I used to try to tell them about charging at home and how trips are practical. Now I go right to the lack of service issues.
     
  5. Evoforce

    Evoforce Active Member

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    #25 Evoforce, Sep 18, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2019
    Easy to pick anything apart. You currently have sour grapes. Majority of us have had good service. I think the majority of us have also not enjoyed, not being able to get a live person on the phone to discuss whatever it might be. I'm sorry you are on the perturbed side of things and it is like a cancer grows. Yes, aggravation does happen and I have had it also. I have some issue with them myself and it revolves around poor communication. The Tesla brand and charging infrastructure is still hands down the best. Nothing is perfect but I also agree Tesla needs to do better. Every car company needs to do better...
     
  6. T3slaOwner

    T3slaOwner Member Extraordinaire

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    LOL, "many of us have had good service"! There are some rather long threads about the various problems with Telsa service. The biggest one though, to a prospective buyer, is that they might need to drive 200 or even 300 miles to get to one. There are states with no service centers at all like South Carolina, Michigan, Alabama, New Mexico!!! Do you want to own a Tesla in Albuquerque?
     
  7. Evoforce

    Evoforce Active Member

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    #27 Evoforce, Sep 18, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2019
    Look to Consumer Reports you will see that majority reported. A forum where a vocal small minority of people come to complain is not a fair sample group. Sounds like you are a glass empty. Maybe no amount of trying to reason with you will help. So I will leave you to your rant...
     
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  8. Blu Angel

    Blu Angel Member

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    @T3slaOwner
    Please correct me I'm wrong.....
    Its been quoted that each Tesla Supercharger cost Tesla $250,000!!

    I believe Tesla is doing its best, within its budget, to roll out their ever expanding SC network throughout the USA & Canada.

    Personally, I've driven over 30,000 miles (50,000 km) on my Tesla 3.
    I've enjoyed every mile and really enjoyed the SC network the few times I've used it (7 times methinks)

    It would be great if some other companies jumped on the EV bandwagon to support this electric highway.
    Up here in Canada, PetroCanada, a major national gasoline retailer, just released their own EV support stations in their
    gasoline stations!

    EV Fast Charge car charging stations

    In conclusion, I applaud Tesla in its sole mission "to accelerate the advent
    of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."

    The Mission of Tesla
     
    • Like x 1
  9. Ostrichsak

    Ostrichsak Active Member

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    The cost of each Supercharger didn't seem to matter when Elon states "double in 2019" so your argument is he had no idea what they cost prior to making that claim?
     
  10. Evoforce

    Evoforce Active Member

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    Let us hope that you are never as positive in stating your aspirations and then don't/can't/won't come through on your projections. Or you play it safe and never proclaim your intentions/projections/aspirations so no one can say you didn't meet them. I don't think that most people could fill his shoes. It appears that you may feel that you could do better?
     
  11. Evoforce

    Evoforce Active Member

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    Some good information. I would like to add that Tesla is building charging infrastructure worldwide.
     
  12. arghx7

    arghx7 Member

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    Elon making hyperbolic statements is not a bug, it's a feature. It's important to take him seriously, but not literally.
     
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  13. mociaf9

    mociaf9 Active Member

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    If you're going to harp on this, at least have the integrity to do so honestly. Don't take a paraphrase or misquote of Elon then bash him for not delivering on something that was never claimed in the first place. When it comes to Elon's pronouncements, you have to be really careful to ensure that what you think he's saying is what was actually said or that he means. It's very easy to misread him, especially on twitter which, as a platform, doesn't lend itself well to expanding on or clarifying the (often technical) nuance Elon regularly uses in communication (though admittedly I see this happening much more often on the SpaceX/rocketry side than the Tesla/cars one). So, why don't we go straight to the horse's mouth twitter feed to find out what was actually claimed:

    Elon on Twitter (2018-11-19)--"Tesla Supercharger capacity will double by end of next year. Expect to be within range of 95% to 100% of population in all active markets," and follow up tweet, "Supercharger V3, which starts rolling out early next year, will also charge much faster." [bolded emphasis added]

    Sure, one way to increase the network's capacity is to just build more stations. But it's not the only way. And given the size of the supercharger network in November 2018, the idea that Tesla could possibly double the number of stations/stalls in a little more than a single year, even if that had been their stated goal, would have been patently ridiculous.

    So, lets look at what Tesla has actually done since that tweet:
    1. Obviously, they've built the new stations and expanded the stall counts at a number of existing stations as mentioned in the opening post. Though, the fact that congestion was reduced by adding stalls to existing locations and not just at new stations wasn't mentioned as the focus was, incorrectly, only on the physical numbers and not on network capacity.
    2. Increased the max charging speed (from 120 kW to 150 kW) across the vast majority of existing superchargers. The benefits of this end up getting pretty diluted if you're charging to a high SOC. But for bottom-of-the-battery charging, it's significant.
    3. Updated the fleet's firmware to help cars maximize their potential charging speed via on-route warm up.
    4. Retrofitted essentially the entire European supercharger network to support CCS for the Model 3. I don't think the tracker is kept up-to-date anymore, but this google map was showing progress.
    5. Added functionality to the phone app to see supercharger use and stall availability. Before, this had been restricted to only showing on the in-car navigation's screen. This (theoretically) helps to increase network efficiency and throughput by getting drivers to route to and use less congested stations, if available.
    6. Instituted a policy of limiting supercharging sessions to 80% SOC at heavily congested stations. Even though this limit is easily evaded, it should still help to increase stall turnover and throughput during heavy use periods.
    7. Started rolling out V3 supercharging, with its significant speed and charging architecture benefits. 3 stations currently in operation (Hawthorne, Fremont, Las Vegas) and about 30-40 known to be in construction or confirmed in some stage of permitting.
    There may be other things I either don't remember or haven't thought of as well.

    I think the big shortfall from Elon's tweet has probably been due to a slower roll-out of the V3 superchargers than he was projecting at the time. 3/4 of the year gone and besides the one at the LINQ, the only operational sites are the original "beta testing" locations on Tesla property. We'll see what the rest of the year brings.

    Elon's tweet referred to the state of the supercharger network "by the end of [2019]", so there are only 2 cases where the bottleneck/shortage of charging pedestals which many North American construction sites are currently experiencing is possibly relevant. I.e. If the shortage persists through another 3+ months and December 31st comes around with a lot of sites still waiting OR if Tesla has been delaying their construction starts due to a projected lack of pedestals. IMO, the first is unlikely and the second seems to be contradicted by the continuing new starts and the large number of sites languishing without the hardware. So, basically just a non sequitur to the discussion.
     
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  14. Ostrichsak

    Ostrichsak Active Member

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    He told us double in 2019. He delivered a 14% increase. At what point are we allowed to be justifiably critical of the messiah?
     
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  15. Rocky_H

    Rocky_H Active Member

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    It is September right now. You don't get to use the past tense word "delivered" yet.
     
    • Informative x 1
  16. T3slaOwner

    T3slaOwner Member Extraordinaire

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    #36 T3slaOwner, Sep 19, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2019
    That's where I differ. On eBay the threshold of happy customers isn't 50%. If they don't have at least a 99% rating I'm not interested. Why should there be even a minority of customers with literal "horror" stories from a decent service department? Why would you expect them to be anything BUT vocal?

    No one here is ranting. You just prefer to bury your head in the sand and ignore real problems with Tesla.
     
  17. Ostrichsak

    Ostrichsak Active Member

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    Through three quarters we're looking at 14% growth over 2018 to this point of 2019. This is roughly 5% growth per quarter if I round up. You're defense is we're going to see 86% growth in the final quarter of 2019 for him to make his statement a reality?
     
    • Disagree x 1
  18. Blup85

    Blup85 Member

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    Not trying to defend Elon's exaggeration of "doubling capacity", but I look at this and just say, wow thats pretty damn impressive. There are ~1200 stalls either in permit or in construction, and in the last 3 quarters he has quadrupled the capacity in my area :)
    Nobody is taking regional EV charging seriously other than Tesla and the "forced" VW Electrify America (which by all accounts has not figured it out at all and is charging absurd rates, so who is getting that revenue?).


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  19. T3slaOwner

    T3slaOwner Member Extraordinaire

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    I'd love to see the reference for that! I'm pretty sure that number is not accurate. A 10 bay station would be $2.5 million!!! You could build a Supercharger factor for that much money and pump those babies out and sell them to Tesla who can't seem to make them very quickly.

    More likely that is the cost of a station with 8, 10 or 12 Superchargers. Even then I think the number is high. Maybe that's a 16 bay station?


    I have something like 22,000 miles and mostly enjoy it when it isn't displaying any of the numerous intermittent defects I can't get Tesla to fix.


    There are lots of companies building charging networks. I'm not sure what you are talking about. Try using Plugshare and you will see an enormous number of charging facilities.


    That's wonderful, but not the topic of discussion. Why does Musk keep telling us he will do something that he then fails to do? He honestly reminds me of Donald Trump in that regard. Make Tesla Great Again!
     
  20. T3slaOwner

    T3slaOwner Member Extraordinaire

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    I have always done a better job of announcing the number of Superchargers I will be building, zero.

    I really don't see why we need fan bois in this sort of conversation. We aren't attacking anyone. We are just reporting the facts. Every year, Tesla lets Musk say they will double the number of Superchargers and every year they add maybe 20 or 25%.

    The issue is they are running a company. The company has to be able to give accurate information about what is currently available and what will be available and when it will be available. If they can't do that there will be a lot of car buyers who will avoid Tesla like the plague. This is not personal with Musk, this is about the future of the company. These aren't anyone's intentions he announces. Surely no one is so incompetent they announce the same thing year after year and fail to deliver. No, he knows they won't double the number of Superchargers. He just likes to make big announcements.
     

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