2544 *without Tesla*, and with plenty of people waiting on Tesla. Tesla reservations have been going gangbusters here (overwhelmingly LR AWD - also, we reportedly have the highest per-capita rate of Cybertruck reservations on Earth).
Cheap electricity isn't the big incentive, nor the fact that we're right near the top of the list on most expensive gasoline, nor the fact that we have clean power and an environmentally-conscious populace, or that we're pretty high on the list of per-capita incomes, alongside relatively low income inequality. It's that we have Norway style incentives, and even more things on the horizon (such as potential congestion charges with EV exemptions).
The "existing network of CCS chargers" is awful. 50kW, poorly maintained, really expensive, generally a single charger per location.
Reykjavík is the place that needs superchargers the *least*. That's where you start and end your trips.
People are fully expecting Tesla to at least circle the Ring Road (which FYI really isn't enough, but it'll be a start). If they don't, sales will drop heavily after the initial burst.
The reason that PHEVs are 2x BEVs is because existing (non-Tesla) BEVs, and our existing CCS network, simply aren't up to the task of getting around the island. For that, we must have Teslas and a Supercharger network. Without high power road-trippable EVs and an appropriate charging network, we fail at our goals of banning new ICE sales by 2030.
(Also, re: PHEVs - as they get ready to renew our Norway-style VAT exemption (which should pass without problems), they're not going to renew it for PHEVs. So PHEV sales should crash a year from now).