MikeL - He has said several times recently (and the website agrees with this) that supercharger access will be free for Model S users. My guess is the model X will be included. There have been a lot of SA and Motley Fool reports recently and a lot of media that is new to this. A lot of them don't understand the difference and are mixing things up in general. That is where I have seen the Model S portion dropped from the statement. I've also read that the new 120kWh will provide full charge in 20 minutes from these sources that are new to this concept. That is where a lot of mixed messages are coming out of, and it is unfortunate because it has the potential to lead to customer disappointment, when in reality Tesla didn't even do anything, the media mixed it up (more on media and the new concepts in the next paragraph). I think that the Gen3 will likely pay for supercharging at a rate/kw. Musk at the D11 interview specifically mentioned how much Model S drivers save over the life of the car (17000-20000) on gas. I can easily see where Tesla can afford to help get that Gen3 price down to 35k because they figure they will average 5k back in supplying electricity to the customer. It might be helping subsidize that lower gen3 price... that's all I'm saying. Heck, I'm surprised that they aren't really pushing for PV systems when you purchase a Model S.... that's where Tesla and SolarCity could really team up to get you to pay them for the electricity you charge your car with even while at home (while stealing some of your electric bill). Heck, at the rate that EV customers can sell back to PG&E for peak hour times and then charge for half as much at night, Musk would be sticking it to non-solar energy pretty hard!
This new technology, including the general concept of "filling up" the car is going to be confounding to a lot of Americans for a while. The concept of not just driving the car to empty is baffeling to most Americans so far. I was trying to explain this to my family while I was in Col. Springs this last week. My family was getting together and we happen to see one in a parking lot, so they got a chance to see (and my brother got to drive one! - thanks to the owner for that!!!). But trying to explain that the superchargers were basically for roadtripping and wouldn't need to be on every corner was like trying to teach a whole new concept. The entire mentality that there won't need to be a super charger station on 3 out of 4 corners of an intersection is brand new to most Americans. It will take time to adapt, and the media isn't going to help the cause. They will actually be more of a source of confusion.
I just had a similar sized solar array put on my house as to what they are putting on the superchargers. SolarCity did the install. There is no way that what they are installing out there could support 100% of the cars that currently approach a supercharger, much less a lot more of them. I get about 60kW per day right now. The cars that show up will probably be looking for at least 40. Take that in with the fact that when they do battery swapping, those batteries will be empty. There isn't anyway the panels that are out there will be able to support much extra filling of batteries. Most likely the solar will charge a battery while they aren't charging cars, and that battery won't ever see full, but instead it will be there to support charging at night. If they start charging extra dead batteries from swapping off the electric grid, they better be ready to pay 0.40/kWh. Hopefully they are able to keep what they have for storage full most the time and sell back to the grid at 0.40-0.50/kWh, but even still, unless their arrays are much bigger than what's currently out there, it's just not going to cut it.
And I just don't believe batter swapping of the whole battery is coming to the model S soon. There is too much out there to lose. I've read most of CapitalistOpresser's opinions on the matter, but there is still just something that doesn't jive. After the tripling down on superchargers, it will be unlikely to see anything like this. While you have pointed out some good sources why some sort of battery swapping might be coming soon, I just don't see it being the whole battery. It will completely oppose the supercharger concept.
I did some digging through their patents last night. While the metal-air concept seems new and foreign, they have probably 15-20 patents on it in the last 2 years (some of them seem like there are 4 similar patents, not sure if they are actually the same). Additionally, there seem to be a few others that seem like they could possibly be related. They have been pretty detailed on it and are even quite worried about the charging of that metal-air battery (while installed in the vehicle). They have discussed quite thoroughly the concept of charging it in a garage. While they are only patents, it seems they are thinking heavily about it. A lot of them were even before the model S was released (last Feb.). I wouldn't be surprised if the Model S already has a slot of them that is already occupied by them or something of similar weight already in the battery pack. They have been very serious about not letting all the details out about the array of what's in the battery pack. They also seem to suggest a metal-air battery that they would use would likely be less than the capacity of the non-metal-air battery (basically they'd both be providing power fairly equally but the nma battery would need to still have juice left at the end). The estimates I read on here are for a 1000 mile battery, but I'd be surprised if it was more than a 200 mile battery. This would mean the actual battery would only weigh about 85 lbs, or easily lift-able by any healthy mid 20s-30s male. It also discusses the possibility that more than one smaller metal-air battery could be in the same system, so maybe there are four 50 mile range metal-air batteries throughout the current battery packs (each weighting 20lbs and easily liftable by anyone). It also seems to go along with the multiple charging points allowing for a faster charge (if plugged into multiple charging sources) if there was a separate plug (or maybe already wired into the current plug, but that would mean single source of charging) for the Metal-air batteries.... maybe this plug-in spot is something that will be added on once the metal air batteries are released, part of the metal air battery itself. If you could be getting two batteries charged at once, you'd be getting up to 400-500 miles of range in 20 minutes, very close to the rate ICE cars get for miles/time while fueling. I'd guess the metal-air batteries could be charged or swapped (which really would provide more range quickly).
I think capitalistopressor is right about some sort of battery swapping coming soon, but after reading a wide variety of the patents last night, it just really would seem more likely to be metal-air batteries. They've been working very hard on metal-air batteries, and we have yet to see any actual progress on non-metal-air battery swapping. You had me convinced that you were right about full battery swapping being the next announcement (as much as I think it will tank the stock because the media will easily be able to twist it), but after reading through the patents last night, there is too much there. Clearly some sort of battery swapping is coming though. The slideshow pointed out in the Short term investments thread had it in there, and it was the only thing they hadn't actually shown in the model S yet. My guess is they didn't forget about it. The timing of the patents is peculiar too. The ones last February have had a ton of time to be processed into the car, and they have released more this March (right before they started talking about the trilogy of announcements). The metal-air battery patents also have predated a lot of things that we know are in the car (like the ability for the keyfob to release the charging port by proximity). Some of the patents seem to be for things already in the car, yet the patent wasn't published til after the car was released (unless they have been refining some features for future cars). My guess is that the metal-air batteries had mostly been figured out long before the patents were released, but there were a few last details they needed to solve before it was ready for use by a customer. Those details were figured out this spring.
Oh... if you haven't read the patents, especially the metal-air-battery ones... they are pretty awesome. Especially some of the details they have thought of including the navigation system realizing the destination you have picked requires the use of the metal-air battery and switching the mode for extended range (metal-air battery usage) on. As for the one about charging the MA battery, it had some crazy algorithms planned for the battery remember where it currently is and what rate it needed to charge itself at to not put off too much oxygen too quickly. It would even compare the current environment situation (temperature, etc.) Some pretty sweet stuff, definitely worth the read. The whole time it just felt like they were talking about the model S in the words they were using.
