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Supercharging availability?

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On #1 there is data that Tesla knows exactly what's going on.

They have data regarding future Supercharger use? That's amazing.

don't think there is any evidence that a Supercharging fee with Model 3 has any bearing on crowding. Maybe you could explain how you got from A to B?

Easy. We know that in order to deal with crowding, Tesla has to build more superchargers. That's what has happened with the Model S and X. Building more superchargers = greater costs. This isn't about building out the Supercharger network. That is happening regardless of the Model 3. This is about having enough available spaces for the future since Tesla is cranking out vehicles faster than ever before. But Tesla needs to keep costs down on the Model 3. If they could build in a $2,500 charge like they do on the Model S and X then there's no issue -- they'd use that money to keep adding stations. But here's Musk's own words on this issue:

“… we wanted to make it really straightforward and easy, that’s why the Superchargers are set up at -least today – for people on board the car to travel long distances for life. Obviously, that has fundamentally a cost… The obvious thing to do is decouple that from the cost of the Model 3. So it will still be very cheap, and far cheaper than gasoline, to drive long-distance with the Model 3, but it will not be free long distance for life unless you purchase that package. I wish we could [make it free], but in order to achieve the economics, it has to be something like that. What Tesla’s motivation is, to make electric transport as affordable as possible. That is what informs all of our actions. It’s not because we want to make things more expensive, it is because we can’t figure out how to make it less expensive. That’s all.”

When he says "it is because we can’t figure out how to make it less expensive" we know that the plans are for solar at the Superchargers (and likely energy storage) so we know it doesn't have to do with energy costs. They know how to make it less expensive when it comes to the costs of energy. That's Tesla's specialty, especially since its acquisition of SolarCity, and with storage given the Gigafactory.

So what costs are we dealing with? Not building out the network (happening as we speak) and not energy costs. So that leaves us with the costs of building more charging sites to avoid future overcrowding -- and those costs are substantial -- in addition to the initial hefty construction costs there are the ongoing rent payments and maintenance fees.

Want more proof? Here's J.B Straubel's words on why supercharging will not be "free" for the Model 3:

“It also pains us to see people mis-valuing their time at charging stations so often, it is far more convenient and faster for you overall to charge at home or at work. It takes one second to plug in, you don’t have to go to a separate location and wait for the car to be there. Time and time again, we see people drive to Supercharger stations, wait there for 30 minutes and drive to a different destination. And if they do their math – and they value their time – it makes no sense.”

Elon Musk On Why Supercharging Won't Be Free For Model 3


See how easy it is to get from point A to point B?

Good, because I have a not long detailed answer. See that area under your profile where it says "Location: SoCal"?
Here's the answer: Because the vast majority of the networks is...outside of SoCal.

And there's our window into the future. SoCal is just the leader of the pack. My daughter emailed me a pic the other day of truckload of new Tesla's going down the highway near my home in Canada. It's coming to a theater near you too. Just give it time. There's no putting this cat back in the bag.

1. Tesla "doesn't know if crowded Superchargers will be an issue."
2. Tesla "feels Superchargers *could* be an issue."
3. Tesla definitely "does have concerns."
You seem to have all the bases covered.

Not really. In fact, they all say the same thing. Tesla is concerned about future supercharging crowding. How it plays out remains to be seen.
 
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Good, because I have a not long detailed answer. See that area under your profile where it says "Location: SoCal"?
Here's the answer: Because the vast majority of the networks is...outside of SoCal.
Really, they sit empty most of the time in most of the country. There are a few that really do have a crowding problem right now, but that is just a few. It just happens to be where you live, so you see it often. And the people you know live there too and see it often. And the people they talk with live there too, so when they tell you about their friends' experiences, it's STILL those same few Superchargers that all of you are talking about.
That's exactly what I was getting at. It's not about utilization as much as its about having adequate resources deployed in strategic highly utilized areas. The second part is having enough to accommodate future growth. Definately a solvable problem.
 
That's exactly what I was getting at. It's not about utilization as much as its about not having adequate resources deployed in strategic highly utilized areas. Definately a solvable problem.
Yep, you see it. They had to build in the middle of the country just to get the routes in place. That took them a few years. Now, it will be another few years until any significant number of Model 3 are flooding the country. So with the middle of the country mostly connected, they have these coming few years to keep adding sites to take care of the crowded areas.
 
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Definately a solvable problem.

Anything is solvable with money (well, many things anyway). But read Musk and Straubel's words above - money is the issue! Tesla is bleeding money and need to start to turn a profit.

Yep, addresses of the hundreds of thousands of people who have reserved Model 3 shows them a pretty good view of where the majority of the cars will be distributed. It's like magic, but the magicians themselves call it data analysis.

The data he showed was present day -- not future -- not to mention the fact that the Model 3 won't come with supercharging enabled and there's no data as to who will be paying for it. No one asked me when I reserved.

Yep, you see it. They had to build in the middle of the country just to get the routes in place. That took them a few years. Now, it will be another few years until any significant number of Model 3 are flooding the country. So with the middle of the country mostly connected, they have these coming few years to keep adding sites to take care of the crowded areas.

Again, it's not about adding sites. Tesla has lots of time to keep adding sites to take care of crowding -- but we've been told by Musk that money is the problem. I'll quote Musk one last time on this issue:

"What Tesla’s motivation is, to make electric transport as affordable as possible. That is what informs all of our actions. It’s not because we want to make things more expensive, it is because we can’t figure out how to make it less expensive. That’s all.”
 
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Anything is solvable with money (well, many things anyway). But read Musk and Straubel's words above - money is the issue! Tesla is bleeding money and need to start to turn a profit.



The data he showed was present day -- not future -- not to mention the fact that the Model 3 won't come with supercharging enabled and there's no data as to who will be paying for it. No one asked me when I reserved.



Again, it's not about adding sites. Tesla has lots of time to keep adding sites to take care of crowding -- but we've been told by Musk that money is the problem. I'll quote Musk one last time on this issue:

What Tesla’s motivation is, to make electric transport as affordable as possible. That is what informs all of our actions. It’s not because we want to make things more expensive, it is because we can’t figure out how to make it less expensive. That’s all.”
There was a more recent comment from EM on this topic were he said infrastructure needed to be built out to support to M3 demand. That said it is about adding and expanding sites. I don't know how long it takes to do that.
 
Tesla-supercharger-Hawthorne.jpg
I'm late to the party. What is the source of that screen shot?
 
Can you show me where it says unlimited?

I believe it says free supercharging for the lifetime of the car, not unlimited supercharging for the lifetime of the car.

Yes, good point. From the website, 'learn more about superchargers' section:

How much does it cost to use the Superchargers?
Supercharging is free for the life of your Tesla vehicle, once the Supercharger option is enabled.


That being said, I doubt Tesla would argue free for the life of your vehicle has any limits. They'll assume most people won't abuse it and they'll be right. Most won't.
 
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I'm so glad there's another Supercharging congestion thread. The other ones didn't really vet out the details, so it's good to be able to revisit. Also, it's good that it's all new participants coming into it without preconceived strong opinions on the matter.

Let me summarize the other threads, and maybe cut this one short. You're wrong and so are you. There is no congestion, except that there is. Tesla will fix it, but there's no way they can. And a few condescending acronym abbreviations added in here, there, and over there.

Text formatting added for users who have not yet chimed in (you can thank me later for saving you the trouble.)

Nice post, Ohmman. Erwin Schrodinger would be proud. I propose we call this whole Supercharger conflict, "Ohmman's Supercharger."

Not meant to be snarky, only humorous. :)
 
I have a 60D on order. So far, I've had three calls from my DS. There wasn't a real reason for her to call me in any of those cases, but each time she's asked me what I'm doing about charging the car. Slightly annoying that she doesn't seem to have any notes from the previous conversations, as we've had the same conversation 3 times, and she even arranged for a HPWC to be reserved for me to pick up at my local SvC after the first call.

I'm inferring from this that Tesla is very interested in what new owners are doing about charging their cars.

I'm in the UK, and I suspect that SpC congestion isn't an issue here at present.
 
I have a 60D on order. So far, I've had three calls from my DS. There wasn't a real reason for her to call me in any of those cases, but each time she's asked me what I'm doing about charging the car. Slightly annoying that she doesn't seem to have any notes from the previous conversations, as we've had the same conversation 3 times, and she even arranged for a HPWC to be reserved for me to pick up at my local SvC after the first call.

I'm inferring from this that Tesla is very interested in what new owners are doing about charging their cars.

I'm in the UK, and I suspect that SpC congestion isn't an issue here at present.
Or she's very disorganized.