TaoJones
Beyond Driven
I can't wait to hear the discourse if/when non-tesla EV's are allowed in the network. Then, add a few hundred thousand 3's that may not have the same disposable income for at home chargers and the wait time swells.
The threads will be epic.
Agreed re the threads but not re the Model 3. The peremptory handwringing and exclusionist rhetoric is already a sad testament.
So about the Model 3. Not gonna be hundreds of thousands, especially in California, for about a half-decade. "Oh, but 500,000/year! 500,000/year, the fearful cry!"
So about *that*:
1. Won't ramp to 500,000 until (end of) 2019 at the earliest.
2. Half production destined for not the US.
3. Of the other half, 40% destined for California. So that's 100,000 cars. At most, at best.
So it will be easily 2020-2021 before hundreds of thousands of Model 3 become California cars. Meanwhile, the other 49 states will have no problem absorbing the other 150,000 cars/year, relatively speaking.
Meanwhile a second time, 12,000+ chargers will be installed in California just from 2 utility companies (and clearly there will be thousands more to come), and multi-family housing will have an opportunity to enjoy a competitive advantage (read that, charge higher rent) by offering EV charging.
And the list goes on. An AeroVironment clone if not AV themselves will bring ChaDeMos that actually work and are full strength. Today they charge $19.95/30 days of unlimited use for ChaDeMo in Oregon - that's as close to free as it gets. And they have no problem installing at gas stations or anywhere else. The gas station owner with whom I spoke in Oregon loved having a ChaDeMo there as he saw an increase in quickmart sales post-install.
All will be well. They said Costco gas stations could never work either, and those turned out just fine. People wait 20 minutes at those all the time to get to a pump. I'm often done before they are, which is rather amusing and something I have been known to mention to an ICE-driving friend. She waits in line at the Costco after work like I used to, and across the street I charge and have a spinach salad or get work done while I wait. Life is so unfair.