Supercharging experiences in Norcal this weekend. Is Tesla ready for primetime?

[purplewalt]

This is why pure electric vehicles will never become mainstream. The fact is it will always take too long to recharge, due to both battery physics, and ultimately grid flow capabilities. There's is NO WAY a large portion of the population can drive pure EVs while being able to charge at high speed. The grid is simply not built for that.

If you think today's SCs are overcrowded, then just wait till the Model 3 becomes available...

The future clearly is in gas electric hybrid vehicles (with small batteries, plug-in for better mileage and performance, but able to go on gas alone), like the BMW i8, Porsche 918, etc. With such vehicles, SC would only take a few minutes, and gas + charging can be done at united stations.

If you plug in your Model S every night at home, the car is as full as you want it to be the next morning.
I doubt you will be driving over 200 miles every day during normal use.

When I go on a long drive, every 2 to 3 hours, I need to do a bit more than just recharge the battery for the next leg.
I need a bio break and probably something to eat and or drink.
Might even take a short walk to revive my legs.
The Model S is a supremely accomplished road car, lots of interior room and storage space.
If Superchargers are spaced @ 110 to 130 miles apart, it really doesn't take that long to add supplemental charge to get to your next destination, because I don't need a full charge.

I don't see the i8 or 918 as being capable touring cars, as there is almost no room for additional passengers or any luggage.
Both of them are also more expensive than the Model S base model, although the P90D is getting in the i8 price range.
You also might want to try the gymnastics act which is required to enter and exit i8.
Ditto for your date in a dress....

Electric vehicles not become mainstream?
Wait until Model 3 appears on the roads, and in people's garages at home.

IMHO, gas electric hybrids are a stepping stone to full BEV, and they will soon enough become obsolete.

Basically I hope you have a chance to take an extended drive back to back to back in all three cars, and then you might develop a different thinking about which one is the most capable vehicle, especially for a long road trip.
Oh, to make it interesting/challenging, why not bring two more people, and a medium size dog.
You also might want to be sure to bring your credit card far gas and figure out how you might be able to even charge the i8 and 918 away from home...
because Superchargers are free for the Model S.
And the cost of all that gas adds up too, because once you are away from home, how will you ever get the i8 charged again? Just so it can run its full 23 miles of range on battery power....

 

[David99]

As many said, the Model 3 will change things dramatically, but that's many years ahead. We are not there yet. There is plenty of time for more Superchargers to be built. Once the Model X and Model 3 are starting to sell, there will most probably another surge of Superchargers.
Tesla cannot let the Superchargers become congested and overcrowded. It would backfire on them so badly. The negative press would be damaging. Whatever Tesla will do (introduce a payment system, get partners, ...) they will do anything to make sure Superchargers are not overcrowded.

 

[m6bigdog]

This is why pure electric vehicles will never become mainstream. The fact is it will always take too long to recharge, due to both battery physics, and ultimately grid flow capabilities. There's is NO WAY a large portion of the population can drive pure EVs while being able to charge at high speed. The grid is simply not built for that.

If you think today's SCs are overcrowded, then just wait till the Model 3 becomes available...

The future clearly is in gas electric hybrid vehicles (with small batteries, plug-in for better mileage and performance, but able to go on gas alone), like the BMW i8, Porsche 918, etc. With such vehicles, SC would only take a few minutes, and gas + charging can be done at united stations.

I'm sure that is what they said when the horseless carriage was first introduced. Where are you going to get the gas? it will catch on fire!! The horse cannot be replaced!!
Simply put the horse manure pollution mandated their replacement just like climate change for the ICE!!

The fate of the ICE is sealed and the hybrid is the worst of both technologies.
Superchargers are inexpensive and easy to construct so they will be prolific with demand.

Never is a long time and you cannot predict battery and/or recharge technology in the near term. Check out the flow cell technology.

IMHO, for +90% of the automobile usage the Tesla is already positioned to meet the requirement of the mainstream from a range perspective.
Electricity is everywhere and does not need a refinery or a truck to transport.

Also, with PV solar panels (home & industrial) and battery storage added to the grid the electrical utility strategy will become both distributed and buffered.
In addition, the vast majority of EV's are charged daily during the off-peak evening period when there is currently ample infrastructure to charge as many EV's that will be used for the foreseeable future, (that is a fact).

In fact it is already hear!! I have 34 solar panels on my roof (40MWh generated in 34 months) and after the initial investment, I no longer pay for electricity for my home or to charge my car.
And you believe gas will be used in the future when electricity can be generated right now for under $0.05 kWh!! that is more than twice the Tesla EPA 93 MPGe fuel economy @ $.12 kWh or 225 MPG equivalent and $270 for 15k miles per year and that is before you subtract for Supercharger miles.

 

[wdolson]

I'm sure that is what they said when the horseless carriage was first introduced. Where are you going to get the gas? it will catch on fire!! The horse cannot be replaced!!
Simply put the horse manure pollution mandated their replacement just like climate change for the ICE!!

My father was born in 1920 and he still remembers talk about how ICEs were pollution free because they didn't leave horse manure on the road. The transition to cars still took a while, my father remembers horses being used in the town he grew up in.

The US had 8000 cars registered in 1900, it reached 1 million by 1913 and 10 million by 1922. In 1900 that was about 1 car per 9500 people, in 1913 it was approximately 1 per 1000, in 1922 about 1 per 90. Today it's about 1 per 1.5 people. If the curve is anything close to the same for BEVs, I don't think we're even to 1913 in BEVs per capita. The curve for BEVs will probably be slower because the horse and buggy industry didn't have the lobbyists the ICE/oil lobby has and they have a massive sales program pushing their their products on us at every turn. Advertising today is far more prevalent and sophisticated than it was in the early 20th century.

 

[Rocky_H]

A couple things:
Projecting crowding in California as existing everywhere is ridiculous. I just came back from a trip that had four Supercharger stops in Nevada and Utah. I never saw another Tesla at any of them.

That ties to the other point. They had to build out to cover those routes early to get widespread usability, but they are sparsely used in many areas. It will be at least a decade until they get close to being full or crowded. So, after the next year or two, when most of the geographical area and routes have gotten basic connection, they will be doing almost entirely redundant coverage in heavily used areas to ease congestion.

 

[wdolson]

A couple things:
Projecting crowding in California as existing everywhere is ridiculous. I just came back from a trip that had four Supercharger stops in Nevada and Utah. I never saw another Tesla at any of them.

That ties to the other point. They had to build out to cover those routes early to get widespread usability, but they are sparsely used in many areas. It will be at least a decade until they get close to being full or crowded. So, after the next year or two, when most of the geographical area and routes have gotten basic connection, they will be doing almost entirely redundant coverage in heavily used areas to ease congestion.

There are a lot of areas where EVs will be slower to be adopted than California, but I expect other areas where EVs are popular will start to see overcrowding as time goes on and Tesla will have to expand the SCs to keep up. Right now Washington State does not have many SCs and it is the #4 state for Model S sales behind California, Florida, and Texas. I don't have my Tesla yet, but from what I hear from other Tesla owners, they rely heavily on other networks like ChadeMO chargers as well as charging at home. I read somewhere that Washington is among the top states in the US in EV ownership with cars like Leafs outnumbering Teslas.

I live in Washington, but we're culturally more oriented towards Portland than the rest of Washington. Portland and Seattle have similar cultures but EVs have become more popular in Seattle rather than Portland, but the cost of electricity might be a factor. Washington has the cheapest electricity in the country and Oregon is a little more expensive (though still pretty cheap). The county I live in is also more conservative than most of the Puget Sound area or Portland. It's funny to see the difference in cars crossing the Columbia, on the Oregon side you see a lot of small cars, but over here you see a lot of trucks and SUVs. The locals aren't all that hostile to people who are green, and there have been some initiatives like a community solar project in Vancouver, but the macho dudes want their trucks.

 

[jeffro01]

My father was born in 1920 and he still remembers talk about how ICEs were pollution free because they didn't leave horse manure on the road. The transition to cars still took a while, my father remembers horses being used in the town he grew up in.

The US had 8000 cars registered in 1900, it reached 1 million by 1913 and 10 million by 1922. In 1900 that was about 1 car per 9500 people, in 1913 it was approximately 1 per 1000, in 1922 about 1 per 90. Today it's about 1 per 1.5 people. If the curve is anything close to the same for BEVs, I don't think we're even to 1913 in BEVs per capita. The curve for BEVs will probably be slower because the horse and buggy industry didn't have the lobbyists the ICE/oil lobby has and they have a massive sales program pushing their their products on us at every turn. Advertising today is far more prevalent and sophisticated than it was in the early 20th century.

That and originally gas was a byproduct looking for a use. For awhile it was just dumped on the ground as waste...

Jeff

 

[wdolson]

That and originally gas was a byproduct looking for a use. For awhile it was just dumped on the ground as waste...

Jeff

And down rivers. Kind of ironic that the waste product they were looking to use somehow became the biggest product of oil production.

 

[techmaven]

I just want to note that Tesla is spending roughly 5% of their capex on Supercharging. As they sell more cars, they build more Superchargers. We are at the cusp of doubling their revenue, which presumably means doubling their Supercharging building effort with a delay of a quarter or two.

Will there be times of congestion? In CA, yes. At places where Tesla is neglecting at the moment or having logistical problems expanding, yes. But overall? No, Tesla will be building out the network as needed, and in some cases, well in advance of what is needed.

As others have pointed, out, the #1 way to alleviate congestion is to leverage destination charging. That's at home, that's at work, that's at the hotel or wherever your car is going to spend hours upon hours sitting still. Even at 110v, 8 amps, it helps. Just as important is EV charging education and etiquette. Charging at home or whatever destination if you can instead of relying on Superchargers has a big effect in areas with frequent congestion. Not using up the charging space when you are no longer charging is a big step. Not overcharging for what you need today is a big step. It all gets better if we have a large amount of reliable destination charging which is cheaper to install overall than DC fast chargers. It's also more environmentally and grid friendly to charge at night at off-peak hours unless the location has direct solar charging with capacity in excess of the location's consumption.

The big question is the ramp with the Model 3. That's also wrapped up with the question of the direction of DC fast charging overall and it also is very much region dependent, as different standards as well as government and industry support and incentives vary widely.

In any case, as long as Tesla is selling lots of vehicles and the street is willing to give Tesla all the rope necessary to spend like a drunken sailor after payday, I think Tesla will do alright by us in terms of Supercharger build out.

 

[Rocky_H]

There are a lot of areas where EVs will be slower to be adopted than California, but I expect other areas where EVs are popular will start to see overcrowding as time goes on and Tesla will have to expand the SCs to keep up.

I think we’re having differing ideas of what “as time goes on” means and what areas. These areas of Idaho, Nevada, Utah, etc. that I’m talking about will probably be fine for at least 10 years before needing expansion, leaving them plenty of resources to deal with the Seattle, Portland types of areas you’re talking about, which will be earlier on the adoption scale and more Tesla-dense.

 

[wdolson]

I think we’re having differing ideas of what “as time goes on” means and what areas. These areas of Idaho, Nevada, Utah, etc. that I’m talking about will probably be fine for at least 10 years before needing expansion, leaving them plenty of resources to deal with the Seattle, Portland types of areas you’re talking about, which will be earlier on the adoption scale and more Tesla-dense.

Sorry, I changed thoughts in the middle there. Yes, I agree that much of the center of the US will have a while before the existing SCs are overloaded. Most of the use will be from people from coastal states passing through for a while yet. Meanwhile Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Florida, and some parts of the NE US will become as congested as California is now as BEVs become more popular in those regions. I also believe Tesla is monitoring what areas are seeing congestion and planning expansions to help where there are bottlenecks. The SC network basically has two phases:

1) Build out the basic network so SCs are available to people traveling most places. Their goal is 90% coverage in the US and that varies in other areas of the world.
2) Fill in the network as needed to relieve congestion at choke points. This will change over time as more Teslas get on the road. They will likely be vastly expanding some SCs before the Model 3 release. They are looking at a 10X increase in cars using the SCs in a short amount of time.

Think about how gas stations are positioned. In high traffic areas, there are often quite a few gas stations around. Many times they are across the street from one another. In more rural areas, they are much further apart. I recall reading about how the new EPA regulations for gas stations 15-20 years ago (I forget exactly when) affected the availability of stations. In Washington state some counties lost their only gas stations, but urban and suburban gas stations bit the bullet and upgraded to the new standard because it was still worth the cost.

Tesla doesn't have to put SCs in urban areas (though I notice the Bay Area has a lot of them), but you will see a lot of SCs on heavily traveled routes between cities (mostly on interstates) with scattered SCs off major routes as needed. The really heavily trafficked ones will be expanded to 50 or more stalls.

One thought I just had with the auto-driving capabilities that are supposed to be coming to auto pilot and the demonstrated auto plug they showed off a few months ago, they might be able to unplug cars and automatically repark them near an AC stall when it finishes charging. That would help alleviate some congestion. If someone is eating a meal while recharging, they don't have to run out to move their car, it can unplug itself and move out of the way unattended. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla isn't working on this...

 

[apacheguy]

One thought I just had with the auto-driving capabilities that are supposed to be coming to auto pilot and the demonstrated auto plug they showed off a few months ago, they might be able to unplug cars and automatically repark them near an AC stall when it finishes charging. That would help alleviate some congestion. If someone is eating a meal while recharging, they don't have to run out to move their car, it can unplug itself and move out of the way unattended. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla isn't working on this...

Note that this will require new hardware on the SpC stalls to unplug and reholster the cable.

 

[wdolson]

Note that this will require new hardware on the SpC stalls to unplug and reholster the cable.

True, but the new SCs have liquid cooled cables and I believe are higher power. There is a precedent to update the SCs as time goes on. Even if they don't bother to upgrade the old ones, they will be building a lot of new SCs in the coming years. The number of SC stalls out there now is probably only 10% of what will be out there by 2020. If only 70-80% of stalls were auto-unplug, it could still work.

 

[CSFTN]

The only reason I didn't buy a tesla is the lack of SUC where I live.

Tesla really needs to put em on highway locations or as close to as possible. At present that's not the case here. ( Belgium)

Once every highway petrol station would have a few stalls I see no reason NOT to buy an EV anymore.

But at present I don't see myself driving 15 mins of the highway to charge 30 mins and then back 15 mins to the highway.

I just don't have the time, nor am I willing to.


Ofcourse one has to take into account that charging takes about 30-45 mins bit fuelling up only 3-5 mins.

So you would need 10 times as many stalls compared to petrol pumps.

Sorry to echo the usual comments, but no you wouldn't need 10x as many stalls as fuel pumps. The majority of charging should be done at one's home, while one is sleeping. In 5 months I have supercharged 5 times, the rest of the time (ie every night) at my home.

I do think that once there is sufficient volume, we will see an explosion of pay-as-you-use DCFC throughout the world, but I'm guessing that won't happen until EVs represent at least 2% of all cars, and won't happen if Tesla builds 10s of thousands of prepaid SCs.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

My girlfriend has had her model S for over a year and just used a supercharger for the first time last weekend in Roseville (CA). So, for at least some people who have multiple vehicles, supercharger usage can be near zero.

What may be more surprising is that she doesn't have 220 at her home and can only charge at around 12 amps.

What may be even more surprising is that I have a girlfriend.

 

[Max*]

I noticed about 20 minutes before we arrived, the car NAV re-routed me to Rocklin, but I figured somehow it was messed up, so ignored it and re-routed for Roseville. As it turns out, the car was smarter than me, because when we got to the Galleria Supercharger, it was completely full.

I'm surprised no one mentioned this. Tesla's nav took you to the less congested SpC. They are monitoring usage (which we knew), but apparently the nav has the information to route you properly!

 

[cantdecide]

Or maybe just it tried to the furthest supercharger asking your route that you would get to with more than X% remaining... And this changed with conservative driving.

 

[cpa]

I'm surprised no one mentioned this. Tesla's nav took you to the less congested SpC. They are monitoring usage (which we knew), but apparently the nav has the information to route you properly!

Max, you might be right! On the other hand, there have been a few Superchargers out of commission the past 13 months. Mitchell SD, Harris Ranch, Tooele UT come to mind. I think there also might have been one in Texas for a few days and Yuma(?).

Sometimes the Supercharger page on the navigation screen noted the fact that the SC was disabled or having reduced power. Other times not. Not sure if Tesla is assiduous in maintaining this information or not. If Tesla does not have up-to-the-minute information on the touchscreen for us while we travel, why would the navigation program "know" usage and route us to another Supercharger that was fairly close?

 

[Larry Chanin]

This is why pure electric vehicles will never become mainstream. The fact is it will always take too long to recharge, due to both battery physics, and ultimately grid flow capabilities. There's is NO WAY a large portion of the population can drive pure EVs while being able to charge at high speed. The grid is simply not built for that.

If you think today's SCs are overcrowded, then just wait till the Model 3 becomes available...

The future clearly is in gas electric hybrid vehicles (with small batteries, plug-in for better mileage and performance, but able to go on gas alone), like the BMW i8, Porsche 918, etc. With such vehicles, SC would only take a few minutes, and gas + charging can be done at united stations.

Which future?

The future where we've burned up a strategic resource up our tail pipes so that our children and their children lack petrochemicals to procduce reasonably priced pharmaceuticals? Or the future where we've polluted the atmosphere so much that our children and their children suffer more disease and have to deal with runaway greenhouse gas effects?

And when our grandchildren ask us, "Granddad why didn't you do something to stop this?" our answer is going to be well it took too long to recharge an electric vehicle or we didn't know how to design the electic grid ? Come on, with renewables, battery storage and off-peak charging is that really going to be our answer?

Larry

 

[bmah]

Which future?

The future where we've burned up a strategic resource up our tail pipes so that our children and their children lack petrochemicals to procduce reasonably priced pharmaceuticals? Or the future where we've polluted the atmosphere so much that our children and their children suffer more disease and have to deal with runaway greenhouse gas effects?

And when our grandchildren ask us, "Granddad why didn't you do something to stop this?" our answer is going to be well it took too long to recharge an electric vehicle or we didn't know how to design the electic grid ? Come on, with renewables, battery storage and off-peak charging is that really going to be our answer?

Well said sir.