Supercharging to be uncoupled for new owners - lowering price of S/X

[Canuck]

Downfall of tesla and the solar industry?!? That's totally the wrong conclusion about my perspective.

This is what you said:

I estimate it will cost: the company's primary advantage in the market, and ultimately its future.

If this will cost Tesla "ultimately its future" then I don't know how I reached a wrong conclusion. I'm just going by what you said.

Then you said this about SolarCity:

But we gotta bail out cousin's solar Ponzi scheme, amiright??!

Ponzi schemes are all doomed for ultimate failure. Again, I'm just going by what you said.

Granted, you now state that the solar industry itself, and EV vehicles itself, will survive, based on your clarification. But I still take issue with your premises that this supercharger payment change will cost Tesla its future and that Solar City is a Ponzi scheme, as a such also doomed for failure.

 

[u00mem9]

All correct. As I attempted to summarize, the real reason we are talking about pay-to-play SC network on model S/X is to sell more cars at all cost. That puts Tesla at greater risk long term. All because it turns out, it's not profitable to borrow money, install solar, take the incentives, and sell the contract for future revenue to the open market. Solar city has 13,000 people working on an invalid premise.

Obviously, I want that trouble to stay far away from Tesla.

 

[brkaus]

I think unbundling is the right thing to do.

1. The cheapskates won't buy it and excessively use local superchargers. Tesla won't have to add as much local capacity and can focus on the buildout elsewhere and long distance travel.

2. Not sure it is good to have a liability on the books "for the life of the car". What happens if electricity goes way up?

3. I'm not convinced $2k is enough to support superchargers and not loose money.

 

[TMobe]

I have a feeling that the new lifetime plan is going to:

1. Cost more than before (My guess is $3000)
2. Be limited to a single owner

I don't have any data to back that up, it's just an inkling.

Exactly! May only be an option for the fully optioned out. Like the 100 is only available for the P90D at the time.
1 owner makes sense as well.

 

[Apricot]

I wonder if there will be a reservation scheme in the future. My only concern about the SC build out is running low and not being able to get a spot when I need it. It's already happening with Level 2 chargers for other EVs... The small number of spots were almost always available three years ago, but now there's a chance they will be full.

 

[TexasEV]

Forgive me, but many of you writing on this thread sound new to Tesla and the Model S. I have had my 85D for 18 months. When I ordered mine, like all ordered at that time, it came without SpC. It was, I believe, $2,000 extra to have it "enabled," with lifetime use of the SpCs (which I did). My point is that they did this before, not so long ago, they know how it works.

No, you didn't pay extra. EVERY 85D came with supercharging in the base price, as did every 70, 75, 85, and 90 (D or not). The only car to have a $2000 option to enable supercharging was the original 60.

 

[TaoJones]

Since ZEV credits have pretty much paid for the SC network so far and will continue to do so, making up a cost per car to support SCing seems unproductive.

Especially when the majority of cars (Model 3 deliveries will dwarf Model S/X deliveries once the ramp is complete) will have this prepaid per kW plan.

As long as they keep the payment process away from the pedestal, I am a half a happy camper. I'll be a whole happy camper once speculation is replaced with facts and details with regard to any transition of the S/X to a non-lifetime SC usage scheme.

It makes little sense to step away from what's been working for the S/ X in part because it will keep more, let's call them "legacy" cars on the road rather than having those owners buy new.

I will be highly disappointed if they jettison the free for life model for the S/X. Again, look at how many BMW 7-Series are sold relative to 3-series. Not a lot of cars from that perspective.

So, we shall see how complicated and convoluted this will get. Hopefully not at all. Providing an entry-level car with prepaid (again, not poo-poo at the pedestal) is fine - but sacrificing the incentive to move up (by leaving it included with the S/X) does not make a lot of sense.

Especially when one removes the FUD and realizes that 97% of the network is fine and that the entire network is less than 50% complete. Remember that only a fraction of 3/S/X use SCs to begin with. There is no coming onslaught. Half overseas, most domestic in CA/NY, and the remainder leaves about 1,000 cars/state/year. Not at all scary.

 

[Canuck]

I have a feeling that the new lifetime plan is going to:.. Be limited to a single owner

How would Tesla track sales of used vehicles years later and turn it off? Is there anything comparable today to this? The only thing I can think of is when Sirius offered a lifetime subscription, but that isn't the automaker but a separate service, and it survives transfer of the vehicle unless the new owner calls Sirius if there is problem - then they might turn it off. But I can't think of anything else.

I just can't see this being a workable option but even if it is, it seems like a huge problem for Tesla to try to enforce. As such, I don't see it happening.

The only car to have a $2000 option to enable supercharging was the original 60.

Yes, and $2,500 if you didn't order it with the car:

Tesla — Enable Supercharging

Remember that only a fraction of 3/S/X use SCs to begin with.

I've yet to see a Model 3 use a Supercharger.

Especially when one removes the FUD and realizes that 97% of the network is fine... There is no coming onslaught.

Yes there is. I've heard over and over the other side of this argument, telling us how underutilized the Supercharger network is, how there's no concern making it free for life with the Model 3, etc., etc.

Don't you find it strange Tesla doesn't appear to feel the same way? We've gone beyond the argument that it will be free for life with the Model 3, calling my comments about that FUD, to now talking about credits for the Model S/X. I wonder why?

I remember not very long ago my daughters going to the mall and there was never a concern about getting an EV spot to plug in the Leaf. Now, they're crossing their fingers to find a spot and they make sure they can still get home without a charge because full EV spaces is now common.

The onslaught is coming. Tesla understands it. It's not FUD. With proper planning and execution, it can be handled. But to put blinders on and say everything is fine does us all a disservice. At least in my opinion.

 

[TacC]

I think unbundling is the right thing to do.

1. The cheapskates won't buy it and excessively use local superchargers. Tesla won't have to add as much local capacity and can focus on the buildout elsewhere and long distance travel.

2. Not sure it is good to have a liability on the books "for the life of the car". What happens if electricity goes way up?

3. I'm not convinced $2k is enough to support superchargers and not loose money.

I'm not so sure so I'll play devil's advocate here.

Free lifetime Supercharger access was promised to all who paid a not insignificant price for their car. I think the current model simply rewards early adopters and is no different from offering Founders edition vehicles or the ability for existing owners to jump others in the manufacturing queue. As Elon said, loyalty begets loyalty.

As far as where they would add capacity, it seems most rational to add in dense urban areas. Most non-Tesla EV owners would need a substantial network build out before they would consider long road trips so any revenue gained there will come at a huge cost. On the other hand, Tesla owners who can't charge at home would likely pay a premium for the ability to charge faster.

I think solar panels solve your 2nd and 3rd issues.

 

[ohmman]

How would Tesla track sales of used vehicles years later and turn it off? Is there anything comparable today to this? The only thing I can think of is when Sirius offered a lifetime subscription, but that isn't the automaker but a separate service, and it survives transfer of the vehicle unless the new owner calls Sirius if there is problem - then they might turn it off. But I can't think of anything else.

This is a good point that I didn't consider initially. (I did say I had no evidence or data, just an 'inkling'!) I was thinking only about CPOs, which would be easy for the obvious reasons.

For fun, let me dig my unreasonable man-heels in and propose a way this could be done. Tesla could grant lifetime Supercharger access to your Supercharger "credit" account. The one on "My Tesla" that was leaked. That's in your name, for your VIN, with your credit card. Obviously once you sell the car, you'd dissociate your VIN with your account, and you'd be done. That VIN would no longer have the unlimited access.

There aren't exact correlatives for this scenario, I agree. But granting the owner a lifetime Supercharging credit account for a specific VIN would be easy enough to track. There may be some desire to game the system and sell the car with the existing account tied in, but I can see that getting ugly (especially with idle fees), and don't imagine it's something a seller would want to tie themselves to.

 

[RogerHScott]

66% of all Teslas were sold in the USA. So I will use USA prices. The average price is $0.12/kWh.

There's no way Tesla is paying residential retail rates for their electricity, but I agree with you overall analysis that TMC doesn't break
on the entire SpC system by charging $2500/car.

 

[WannabeOwner]

The average price is $0.12/kWh

is that corporate, large user, purchase price? Seems on the high side to me ... plus Tesla could diversity into generating electricity (e.g. Solar) to add-value to that parameter.

EDIT: Sorry, hadn't seen that @RogerHScott had already made that point.

let me dig my unreasonable man-heels in and propose a way this could be done.

how about "10 years" (or whatever) instead of current-ownership period?

 

[whitex]

You'd rent an adapter from Tesla, with a deposit equal to retail price. You pay per month for the adapter.
You'd also create a "special" outlet in Tesla Format that is actually L2 only for cars that don't support DCFC.

I'd vote for that as long as BEFORE accepting such L2 cars, Tesla scales the number of supercharing stalls to account for the slow charging. If today's stations assume an average 100KW charging rate, you'd have to scale that accordingly for 6KW. So for example, a SC location that today has 8 stalls, would need to have 133 stalls or more (the "more" part is to account for increasing number of cars by accepting all the new cars to the network). I think every Tesla owner would be happy to share if that meant every supercharger has 100-200 stalls or more.

 

[whitex]

Also, the incremental cost to add another charging stall to a Supercharger station is very small. Once you negotiate the space, install the transformer and charging equipment, it's almost "free" to add another plug.

If that was true Tesla would have added 20 or 30 stalls to each of the SC in CA that get overloaded on long weekends and holidays (after all 20 stalls x almost_FREE = almost_FREE). What I think you forgot to consider is:
1. Dedicated parking space costs
2. Power capacity costs - at 120KW per car that is a lot of capacity you need from the utilities, they need to plan for that and have it ready whether you're using it or not (waterfall doesn't stop flowing just because you don't need electricity - that is why in a lot of places electricity is much cheaper at night). One SC stall is equivalent of ~6 residential homes, so 10 stalls would be like a small neighborhood in terms of utilities planing.

So no, it is not almost FREE, not even close.

 

[whitex]

I will be very curious as to how this plays out with regards to CPO cars. If the intent is to decouple supercharging from the car, I could see Tesla selling CPO cars with these new options instead of the rolled in lifetime supercharging they come with now.

Or, does Tesla just set some cutoff date? All VINs built prior to XX date have lifetime supercharging with the car, all VINs afterwards are the paid option. Good luck sorting that out on the used market.

Why would that be a problem? It's an option like pano roof or other options. Just because it came included with some cars it doesn't make it more difficult to sort out. You'll likely be able to see whether the car has that option by looking at the 8.x charging screen. CPO market has dealt with it with S60's and there you actually have to call Tesla to verify (or plug into a SC).

 

[David_Cary]

I have to agree with this statement. Many people don't realize that the cost of superchargers to Tesla is more than $2500/car. Let me show you a detailed calculation:

1. Supercharger hardware:
According to this source, in May 2015 Tesla said each station costs $270,000. At the end of May 2015, there were 2870 stalls in 479 stations. That's an average of 5.99 stalls per station. Therefore, cost per stall was 270,000/5,99= $45,063. The reason I'm calculating stalls is because today's stations have more stalls. Therefore cost per stall will be more accurate.

At the end of Q2 2016, worldwide, Tesla had 4009 supercharge stalls and 136,652 deliveries. Some S60's and S40's don't have supercharging. So let's assume 132,652. That means 4009/132,652= 0.0302 stalls per vehicle. In other words, the cost of supercharger hardware is 0.0302*$45,063= $1,362/car

2. Vehicle hardware:
I have no idea about this. Let's say $200/car.

3. Electricity:
66% of all Teslas were sold in the USA. So I will use USA prices. The average price is $0.12/kWh.

Assuming each supercharge session is from 25% to 90%, that's 65%. Assuming average battery is 85 kWh, that would be 0.65*85= 55.25 kWh, which would cost 55.25*0.12= $6.63 per session.

According to this survey with 243 owners, on average Tesla drivers supercharge 27.1 times/year. So that's 27.1*$6.63= $179.67 per year. For the lifetime of the car, let's say for 12 years, that would be 12*$179.67= $2,156/car

Total cost of supercharging = $1362 (for supercharger hardware) + $200 (for vehicle hardware) + $2,156 (for electricity)
= $3,718/car

That survey was not scientific. I am an enthusiast and I've not even seen that. Do you really think the average owner is on there filing that out? I just asked a fellow owner - P85+ - purchased 2.5 years ago. Never supercharged. I have done about 8 - in 16 months. We have superchargers in 5 directions 50 - 70 miles away. Why not go by Tesla's numbers which are far less. I believe it is right around 10% of total miles. I'd go with 15k miles/year or 1500 miles or 10 sessions. (I actually think Tesla says 9%)

So then with your other assumptions - and you get really close to $2000.

I know it is hard to believe in CA, but wholesale electricity is about $.04 per kwh. But Tesla may pay significant demand charges. But they probably don't plan on doing that for 10 years. Additionally, electric companies are super excited about EV's and may help subsidizing the stations with good electric rates.

 

[whitex]

Why not sell a Tesla to Chademo adapter (or other L3 standard) that has an UID so that the Supercharger can hit your account when you use the adapter to charge your non-Tesla car. That would take the competiing car companies out of the equation. Not that my LEAF could go cross country with the current network, it would be far better than current charging networks.

Tesla SC not designed (number of stalls) for slow charging. Even Chademo maxes out at 50KW, but a lot or cars use less (say 20KW). So if Tesla's charge on average at 100KW, then to accommodate 20KW cars you need 5x the number of stalls.

 

[whitex]

Why is everyone here assuming the charging credits will be what the electricity costs? A vast majority of people (as mentioned by few people here) will never use anywhere $2000 worth of electricity from superchargers. HOWEVER, it would make total sense if the "charging credits" for pay-as-you-go were some multiple of electricity at home, say 3x to 10x. If you had to pay between $0.30 and $1 per KWh then for some it would still be worth to use pay-as-you-go, but others would pay $2000 for the lifetime plan.

My guess is that the charging credits will be some multiple like this.

 

[Troy]

My guess is Tesla will end the current free for life system before the end of this year because it prevents them from opening lots of city superchargers in places like China and Hong-Kong where there is high demand. I have even seen forum members asking for paid superchargers because the free ones are always full. HERE is an example.

 

[brkaus]

My guess is Tesla will end the current free for life system before the end of this year because it prevents them from opening lots of city superchargers in places like China and Hong-Kong where there is high demand. I have even seen forum members asking for paid superchargers because the free ones are always full. HERE is an example.

True. Free for life would be in conflict with high density superchargers. More accessible, more "value" people want to get out of them. If Tesla made a supercharger at every McDonald's, nearly all miles put on many cars would be paid for by Tesla.

Would not expect any ICE company to offer free for life fuel for $5k.