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Surprise R and D project

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Firstly, I just wanted to mention, when we conjecture about these items, it's worth remembering that until the Spring of 2013, Elon and Tesla as a whole did not think they'd have anywhere near the kind of money they now have to work with. Some of the "No, not happening" on various ideas that we had heard in the past may have had to do with a lack of financial resources which is no longer an issue (that said, surely some of the "No, not happening" to ideas thrown at Tesla no amount of money would change... me and Colbert will probably have to manage without "jet packs"). I'm not suggesting that they have $3 billion for these other R&D cards, the $2 billion from this past February's capital raise is ultimately said to be for the Gigafactory, and much of last May's $1 billion raise is being poured into new service centers and SuperChargers, but it is reasonable to think that there is far more money available for R&D projects today than what seemed realistic a year and a half ago. (to put this in context the unexpectedness of these funds, Elon has publicly stated that he really did not know in advance if the stock would go up or down after the earnings release last spring that led to the price soaring, and set the stage for raising funds with the two big convertible debt offerings. in addition, their global expectation for S/X sales is about triple what it was entering 2013, meaning their ongoing business is generating far more funds for them to reinvest in the business than seemed plausible not too long ago).

To do backup power and/or V2G, that technology is well understood, and is used on every emergency generator. A simple contactor that is installed where the main power to the house, and the breaker panel meet. The system could be designed to function in backup mode, meaning it only comes online in the event of main utility power failure,
So the contactor isolates the inverter from the utility in that case. For use as V2G, it can only supply power if the utility is working since you can't risk electrocuting a lineman working on the utility wires during an outage.

I think they could do this design in 2 hardware pieces, the contactor that is installed at the service entrance, and an inverter that basically replaces your HPWC with a piece of hardware that is the car interface, and the inverter. It would of course have to be on a large breaker (100A), to be most effective. The contactor and HPWC/inverter could communicate with each other over AC power wiring, or wifi/Bluetooth, or many other technologies. In many cases it wouldn't be possible to have the contactor and car interface/inverter all located together, so some type of communication link would be needed.


Thanks for the explanation Mitch. Glad to hear what Tesla would need to do for backup power is already well understood. It seems like a considerably simpler first step to making more use of the pack than going right to V2G.

As to pack degradation... that's why I thought Mitch had made a very good point upthread about Tesla possibly having gotten more comfortable with the pack life. Tesla's statements and pack warranty imply the pack will be appropriate for automotive use roughly 10 years. A month or two ago one of the members here, who does seem to have a strong battery background, was pretty emphatically suggesting that the pack will be great for vehicle use for 300K miles, if not more, based on data already existing on 18650s he documented. My recollection is he was suggesting ~90% capacity after 300K miles. Granted, time will tell how the packs hold up in the cars, but what the other poster said was very consistent with what Mitch is suggesting. Tesla may have seen enough to make them comfortable that people wont trash the reputation of the packs if they have the ability to use them for emergency backup, or possibly even V2G.


As to "some really cool tech", agreed, I was thinking more something that changes or augments the drivetrain, like adding metal air as a range extender.
 
I think it is the semi-autonomous driving project. We here know about that as it has been eluded to a few times but there is no way that the public and analysts on Wall St are aware of that as a potential major selling point of future Tesla cars (I rarely if ever see it mentioned in any analysis of the company). So it would fit the criterion of something "something you don't know of yet".

They are definitely working on aspects of autonomous driving. I work in the defense industry on autonomous vehicles and Tesla recent hired an old co-worker for his (limited) experience with autonomous vision systems.
 
They are definitely working on aspects of autonomous driving. I work in the defense industry on autonomous vehicles and Tesla recent hired an old co-worker for his (limited) experience with autonomous vision systems.

Yes, but that is an project we do know about. Whats the project(s) that Elon hinted about that we don't know about?

They have been working on Model 3 for a long time and have made more progress then anybody have guessed? (hope it this! :) ). Ready to deliver in Q1 2016? ;)
They have started working on the Model Y, and will show/deliver both models at the same time?
They have been secretly working on a GF on an unknown location since April/May? It will be done ready to move in by end of 1H 2015?

(Ok, this may not be so serious, but as long as we don't know it's allowed to be an optimist ;) )
 
I wonder is something secret is happening in China. I know of at least one Tesla employee who left because he would've been required to moved to China. This might also explain some of the favor that the Chinese government has show to Tesla thus far.

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*shown (sorry, I don't know how to edit yet)

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and: *if (must learn to proofread before I post)
 
Yes, but that is an project we do know about.

Well, WE are confident that they are working on it ;-) , but neither Elon nor JB have announced it officially yet, did they? I remember Elon and JB being very reluctant to even tell us that they are working on adaptive cruise control, blind spot warning and similar features (e.g. in the meeting in Amsterdam: Elon Musk Townhall meeting Amsterdam (HD): Firmware Version 6.0, SuperCharger Locations Europe, etc. - YouTube at 40:00-41:15 roughly).

I would even think that the major retooling at Fremont is partly due to changes to the Model S (cameras, sensors, radars, etc.) ...
 
Well, WE are confident that they are working on it ;-) , but neither Elon nor JB have announced it officially yet, did they?

I don't remember where or when, but yes. Elon has said that the goal is to deliver GIII (now known as Model 3) with "autopilot". How "official" that is I can't tell, but it would be strange if he now suddenly is keeping it as a secret.

Elon don't want radar btw...
 
I don't remember where or when, but yes. Elon has said that the goal is to deliver GIII (now known as Model 3) with "autopilot". How "official" that is I can't tell, but it would be strange if he now suddenly is keeping it as a secret.

Elon don't want radar btw...

Could you give us a source for both statements? And with regards to the autopilot in Model 3, this is at least 3-4 years from now, but I think Elon was referring to something closer in time.

EDIT: At least I wish there was some surprise changes to the Model S :) Freeway autopilot would be a very nice feature to have in the near term future.

While relistening to the Q2 webcast, I got the impression that it might indeed be a bigger project already in the making, Elon was referring to when talking about "not showing all our cards" and "capex and r&d numbers are better than they appear". Interestingly, to add to that, Deepak said they were doing a lot of product related stuff "at this point" and R&D will "sort of slow down". Would that mean that the results of this R&D of Q1-Q2 will be visible pretty soon? Sorry, but I'm just too excited... ;-)
 
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Could you give us a source for both statements? And with regards to the autopilot in Model 3, this is at least 3-4 years from now, but I think Elon was referring to something closer in time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-07/tesla-ceo-talking-with-google-about-autopilot-systems.html
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-takes-to-twitter-to-recruit-autopilot-engineers/


Yes, as hockeythug already has linked in he had later said the will have something to show in a year from now. But I think he then talked about a prototype, not something for a production car yet.
 
I am betting that Tesla is gaining attention outside of just the passenger car industry. I would not be surprised to hear Tesla teaming up with a major American bus manufacturer to provide large batteries and motors. I would also not be surprised to hear that Tesla was working with locomotive manufacturers to provide massive train car batteries that easily swap out with an electric locomotive. A 50 ton battery could power a locomotive at full power for 3 hours. Current diesel locomotives usually weigh around 75 tons. Cheap batteries brings so many possibilities to transportation.
 
All of the things that were mentioned so far regarding the surprise project all involve things that were at one point or another mentioned by EM and others at TM. If I would guess about a thing that public really does not know about, it should not be anything that was mentioned before.

I think that the secret R&D project could be about developing (adopting) the drivetrain for a major auto manufacturer, other than Toyota or Daimler. This would be a really major development because it will signify a shift in attitude toward the EVs. A project like that could be under wraps until a preliminary "proving concept" prototype is developed before inking the final contract.

If the above theory proves to be true, it could be a watershed moment for EV adoption and Tesla Motors.

This was my first thought as well. The points about battery constraints are of course valid, but any such project would have a long runway, and could be timed to enter full-production when the gigafactory comes on line. Remember that, above all else, Elon want the EV revolution to succeed. They know that they have to provoke other partners to come along. My top candidate would be BMW. They seem to catching the EV passion.
 
Whatever it is, to me it looks like it's more than one thing.

I thought Deepak alluded more to blue-sky type of investments, by saying something like "if there is one place where we will want to invest, it's there", referring to R&D. In the context he said that, he was clearly speaking about the future.

Elon, however, said that the capex numbers in their latest report "are better than they look", meaning right now, which to me suggested he was referring to something with more immediate payoff. That's also when he added the cryptic "we're not showing all our cards." Given the context, I took that to mean that the expenses may look big now, but if you knew what we know, they wouldn't look that big anymore.
 
Perhaps we should be ask why TM is not laying out all there cards. There are several possible reasons. In the case of the GF pad in Reno, the motivation seems to have been that they did not want to spoil negotiations with other states. We have also learned the demand for the MX is so high, that Tesla is trying to steer buyers into the MS in stead. That is the anticipation of MX is potentially cutting into current sales. A third motivation would be to stay ahead of the competition. Of course, TM is so far ahead that they are comfortable releasing patents, so I'm not too concerned that Tesla is withholding information for a competitive advange, though it would be possible.

So I think the most likely rationale is that they have product improvement to announce that has the potential to cause consumers to delay purchase. Two categories seem to fit this: autopilot gear and higher range batteries. What else?
 
So I think the most likely rationale is that they have product improvement to announce that has the potential to cause consumers to delay purchase. Two categories seem to fit this: autopilot gear and higher range batteries. What else?


Good line of reasoning! Totally agree!

Here's another guess: new dirt repellent paint? (since they mentioned the new paint shop to come on line in Q1 15)

one more: AWD for Model S

alright, another guess, because I imagine this to be really cool: falcon doors option for Model S !


@Model 3 & hockeythug: Thanks for the links!
 
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Whatever it is, to me it looks like it's more than one thing.

I thought Deepak alluded more to blue-sky type of investments, by saying something like "if there is one place where we will want to invest, it's there", referring to R&D. In the context he said that, he was clearly speaking about the future.

Elon, however, said that the capex numbers in their latest report "are better than they look", meaning right now, which to me suggested he was referring to something with more immediate payoff. That's also when he added the cryptic "we're not showing all our cards." Given the context, I took that to mean that the expenses may look big now, but if you knew what we know, they wouldn't look that big anymore.
I think they meant that the spend is better in the sense that stockholders are getting more value than it appears. In other words if they were spending it all on just s, x 3 the spend would be less.
 
So I think the most likely rationale is that they have product improvement to announce that has the potential to cause consumers to delay purchase. Two categories seem to fit this: autopilot gear and higher range batteries. What else?

But, as I already have stated here, autopilot (and AWD for TMS) is things we already know that is coming. Higher range batteries on the other hand is one possibillity. Well, we know that to, but it may come earlier then expected. It may come with the TMX?

Other then that I see two things: Selling batteries and drive-trains to a new customer or developing a new model (Y? S Cabriolet/wagon? X Pickup/Van?) we don't expect (yet). Or possibly something with grid-storage or something.