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Surprisingly with Bolt, Model 3, and Leaf II eminent, used EV prices are rising rather than falling?

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by gene, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. gene

    gene Supporting Member

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    I noticed on the Leaf owner's forum that members are claiming a rise in used Leaf prices.

    It's amazingly true, even here in southern California the used Leaf prices are headed up. Only last December, I and two friends of mine all bought 2013 Leaf's all with less than 25,000 miles at $6200 to $6400. Now sellers are asking about $8500 to $9,000 for the same car. I have ours listed now on Craigslist for $9,000 (and receiving inquiries) as since I am a Model S owner since 2013, my wife's Model 3 may show up within a few months.

    I wonder what is driving the higher prices? I had thought when the Bolt, Leaf II, and Model 3 became eminent, that the used Leaf prices would crash. The opposite has happened, even the used Spark EV, Fiat 500E and eGolf have gone up in price! Even the lame Focus EV is up by $2,000!

    I had read yesterday that in California, new EV sales are now 5% of purchases. Maybe it is backlash for Trump policies, people taking the climate into their own hands. Any ideas what is driving these increases?
     
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  2. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    #2 ChadS, Aug 23, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2017
    It is obviously difficult to say with any certainty. But I would guess the following items are likely involved:

    1. Word has been actively spread by a number of groups about what a great deal a used EV can be (For example, THIS was in today's USA TODAY). People that previously ignored EVs because they couldn't afford a new one are now suddenly interested in the used ones. This is a case where spreading the news of a good deal can turn you in to a liar if you end up changing the demand/supply ratio.

    2. The Bolt, LEAF 2.0 and most of all the Model 3 are likely drawing the attention of many of the "call me when they have a xxx-mile car priced for a regular guy" crowd. More people in general are considering EVs as something that might really work for them. Once they REALLY think about a it, some of them in multi-car households will realize that a cheap, short-range BEV will work well in their stable.

    3. A few states and provinces have recently introduced incentives for used EVs. A lot of used LEAFs from the Seattle area, for example, are being shipped to Canada to take advantage of this. The lower availability here then raises prices. Increased availability there might lower prices some, but the availability of incentives could more than compensate in terms of both demand and willingness to pay.
     
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  3. gene

    gene Supporting Member

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    I listed my Leaf S (2013, 30,000 miles) on Craigslist and sold it at $9,000 within a day. I was wondering about what suddenly drove all used EV prices up. My buyers just learned about the Model 3 and are buying my Leaf as they wait for a Model 3. Another friend of mine has a Model 3 coming by end of this year. He listed his similar Leaf S (though a little less pristine) on Craigslist and had a buyer in one hour at $8700. He had calls from a few people, all stating they recently got turned on to EV after hearing about the Model 3.

    So, if my assumptions are correct, as per Tesla's mission, the Model 3 is really driving people towards EV ownership. In this case the unexpected adoption of used EV's. I wonder just how much new (other than Tesla) EV sales might be boosted as well?
     
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  4. mmd

    mmd Active Member

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    Do these also have to do with the new EV rebate program in California being in limbo for 2 months?
    Clean Vehicle Rebate Project
    BTW, title should have "imminent", not eminent(famous) :)
     
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  5. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    Yup. Rebates are what kept resale artificially low.
     
  6. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Correct me if I'm wrong, but the rebate program is only available for new purchases or leases based on the rebate link. Seems the thread is about resales.

    Eligibility guidelines

    Quote:

    Eligible applicants must meet requirements that include, but are not limited to, the following.

    • Be an individual, business*, nonprofit or government entity that is based in California or has a California-based affiliate at the time the rebated vehicle is purchased or leased.
    • Be a purchaser or lessee of a new eligible vehicle and submit a CVRP application:
      • Within 18 months of the vehicle purchase or lease date**
      • After executing and signing a purchase or lease agreement.
     
  7. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    Effectively, the price of new EVs went up because there is no $2500 state rebate. So used EVs have a greater demand. Supply? Meet demand.
     
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  8. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Thanks! So the rebate expired! Missed that... makes more sense now!
     
  9. mongo

    mongo Member

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    Also, when new vehicles are available at price-rebate, used vehicles are no longer competitive at price - depreciation, they need to be at price-rebate-depreciation. Or at least below price-rebate by a significant amount.

    When rebates expire and new vehicles go back to price, then used are once again competitive at price-depreciation.
     
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  10. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    It was Arnold Schwarzenegger who was Governor in California, not Donald Trump. But today Jerry Brown is Governor. His political stance is just slightly to the left of Joe Stalin. He is a strong advocate of EV technology when making speeches. Not so much though when having to put his words into action.

    To clarify, the President of the USA is who bought a Tesla and has not stopped the Federal $7500 rebate. It's the Governor of California that does not own an EV who stopped the $2500 EV credit. But apparently he is taking some action:

    **** BREAKING: California Gov. Jerry Brown Bans All Fossil-Fuel Vehicles In Sacramento
     
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  11. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    While new car sales are very visible due to monthly press releases, the used car market is far less visible. You might just be seeing the effect of supply and demand as plug-in consideration has increased and the new car market has weakened.
     
  12. EV-lutioin

    EV-lutioin Active Member

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    The California EV rebate is alive and well except for joint filers that make more than $300K . And if you make less than 300% of the Federal poverty rate you actually get $2,000 more ($2,500+$2,000). In theory, this should actually qualify more people for the rebate.

    CVRP Eligible Vehicles

    Screen Shot 2017-08-27 at 8.18.53 PM.png
     
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  13. gene

    gene Supporting Member

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    Wrong.
     
  14. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    If you qualify for Low Income status, there is still some funding, it used to be $8 million left as of 6/29, which is probably about 1200 cars today since Low Income filings are about 250 vehicles per month. The demographic for EVs is far above the $48k year in California for a married couple which is the high limit.

    CVRP Funding Status

    But feel free to call them to or submit. Just don't spend that check quite yet.
     
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  15. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    People are getting less scared of EVs as they become more mainstream.
    Hell, a recent survey showed that less than 50% of people even know electric cars exist at all.
     
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  16. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    #16 McRat, Aug 28, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2017
    Low Income Program is not a $2500 rebate AFAIK, it's enhanced. $2800 for an MC to $7,000 for an H2 car.

    Can I please have another dislike for posting facts about EVs instead of political nonsense that seems invade every thread? Thanks in Advance!! ;)
     
  17. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    Maybe the OP actually meant that used BEV's are becoming famous partly due to Model 3 hysteria. Anyway, at these prices used EV's are full of "positive qualities" so the word could work. The first definition does require anthropomorphizing the BEV's; that's OK with me since my S is named Cerise and my spouse cals her my 'mistress'
    em·i·nent
    ˈemənənt/
    adjective
    1. (of a person) famous and respected within a particular sphere or profession.
      "one of the world's most eminent statisticians"
      synonyms: illustrious, distinguished, renowned, esteemed, preeminent, notable, noteworthy, great, prestigious, important, influential, affluential, outstanding, noted, of note; More
      • used to emphasize the presence of a positive quality.
        "the guitar's eminent suitability for recording studio work"
        synonyms: obvious, clear, conspicuous, marked, singular, signal

        source: dictionary.com



     
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  18. EV-lutioin

    EV-lutioin Active Member

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    You probably missed because it didn't expire, the rebate is still very much available for EV purchases in California. And there is a proposal working its way through the CA legislature to increase it greatly.
     
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  19. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Thanks! I realize that now!
     
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  20. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    I think it's a combination of a few things.

    The used prices were really excessively depressed to the point where people started getting some amazing deals.

    You had a lot of people hearing about EV's, but hadn't really tried them. Like my boss wouldn't even test drive my Model S, but ended up getting his daughter a used leaf. Now he's likely going to get the next generation Leaf for his wife. He doesn't like the Model S/X because he feels as if they're too expensive, and the Model 3 is way too far away.

    There also seems to be some large demand in some areas. Like I heard that in Alaska the leafs were selling like hot cakes. Apparently people liked them because in Alaska you have lots of places to plug in. Since you have to plug in an ICE car anyways.
     

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