No they don't.
1) Only about half of the Autobahn has no speed limit. The other half has speed limits between 60-75 mph.
2) The typical speed is about 120 mph and it is only the nuts that do it. Most people drive a more reasonable 70-90 mph.
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Swapping is Coming [Discuss how it will be accomplished]
- Thread starter Citizen-T
- Start date
No they don't.
1) Only about half of the Autobahn has no speed limit. The other half has speed limits between 60-75 mph.
2) The typical speed is about 120 mph and it is only the nuts that do it. Most people drive a more reasonable 70-90 mph.
I'm not saying 1000 miles is a typical trip - merely showing that it will easily scale to any degree.
A more typical (long) trip might be 200 miles, where you drive there in the morning and back home in the evening, so a total of 400 miles. Assuming this is a stretch of road where one can drive at an average of 100 mph, this is four hours of driving in a day. I've done 4 hours of driving in a day dozens of times.
Gas car:
- Drive there in two hours
- Refuel in 10 minutes
- Return home in two hours
Total time: 4 hours and 10 minutes
Model S with SC:
- Drive 100 miles
- SC for 20 minutes
- Drive 50 miles
- SC for 30 minutes
- Drive 50 miles
- Charge at 3 kW for 6 hours (typical available outlet)
- Drive 50 miles
- SC for 20 minutes
- Drive 50 miles
- SC for 20 minutes
- Drive 50 miles
- SC for 20 minutes
- Drive 50 miles
Total time: 5 hours and 50 minutes
Model S with SS, regular 85 kWh packs:
- Drive 100 miles
- Swap battery pack in 5 minutes
- Drive 100 miles
- Swap battery pack in 5 minutes
- Drive 100 miles
- Swap battery pack in 5 minutes
- Drive 100 miles
Total time: 4 hours and 15 minutes
Model S with SS, 150 kWh li-air packs:
- Drive 100 miles
- Swap battery pack in 5 minutes
- Drive 100 miles
- Charge at 3 kW for 6 hours (typical available outlet)
- Drive 100 miles
- Swap battery pack in 5 minutes
- Drive 100 miles
Total time: 4 hours and 10 minutes
Actually, I see that for a mere 400 mile trip, li-air isn't really needed, provided one has sufficient battery swap stations. The primary benefit of longer range battery packs is that the battery swap stations can be further apart. That makes it fairly unlikely that Tesla would roll out li-air or similar yet. Even so, I would hope that Tesla at least uses the newest cells fram Panasonic and only stocks 100 kWh packs. Doing so would sweeten the deal substantially. (Maybe the P85 is even prepared to use the increased power from the battery, to entice the ones with 85 kWh packs. "Under your nose", anyone?)
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Your assumptions are way off therefore your results are without any meaning whatsoever.
I ask again:
Do MS60 and MS85 get same charging speeds at superchargers?
This is very important datum for inducting what SC concept is capable of today.
In all probability 60 kWh battery packs will charge in the same time as an 85 kwh pack, not at the same power level.
In any case, I assumed 85 kWh batteries, 120 kW SC, and 100 mile range at 100 mph.
When I think about it, it makes quite good sense to make future larger-capacity batteries available as part of a battery swap program first, and then a year later, when they've been used for X million miles under real conditions, they can make them available for purchase. As long as the batteries are in a battery swap program, no one will care if they degrade til 70% in 100 cycles, as they will simply be whisked away by Tesla and be replaced by a new pack. Having higher capacity packs also attracts 85 kWh Model S owners, not just 60 kWh Model S owners, which will help pay for the battery swap stations.
So, the situation might evolve like this:
December 2013: Highest capacity pack for purchase is 85 kWh, highest capacity pack for rental is 100 kWh.
December 2014: Highest capacity pack for purchase is 100 kWh, highest capacity pack for rental is 115 kWh.
December 2015: Highest capacity pack for purchase is 115 kWh, highest capacity pack for rental is 130 kWh.
And so forth.
Oh yeah, and another good reason: Letting people drive with the more cutting edge packs is like giving everyone using battery swapping test drives with the new batteries. This will build consumer demand, as people will drool all over the new battery packs. (And who would be more likely to want to upgrade their battery? People who drive long distances. And who would be most likely to use battery swapping? People who drive long distances!)
So, the situation might evolve like this:
December 2013: Highest capacity pack for purchase is 85 kWh, highest capacity pack for rental is 100 kWh.
December 2014: Highest capacity pack for purchase is 100 kWh, highest capacity pack for rental is 115 kWh.
December 2015: Highest capacity pack for purchase is 115 kWh, highest capacity pack for rental is 130 kWh.
And so forth.
Oh yeah, and another good reason: Letting people drive with the more cutting edge packs is like giving everyone using battery swapping test drives with the new batteries. This will build consumer demand, as people will drool all over the new battery packs. (And who would be more likely to want to upgrade their battery? People who drive long distances. And who would be most likely to use battery swapping? People who drive long distances!)
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If Tesla introduces swapping - and that is still a big if - they should only introduce it at the supercharger locations that are used to capacity. Some place where all 10 supercharger stalls are regularly full on a peak load day.
Instead of expanding that supercharger station to more than 10 stalls it might - might - make sense to add a swap station there.
If they do, I bet they do a couple of stations in California only - enough to qualify for the maximum ZEV credit - and then see how well it works. I bet that it does not expand from that.
I agree there is some added benefit in offering a bigger capacity battery pack for rent.
I still don't see how is one location that offers 5-minute 'fast charge' better than two (or even more) distinct locations offering ~20-min 'fast charging' service. The second benefits more customers.
The second option adds way more value to Tesla brand than first one. Still no one produced the argument how is 5-minute charging that is not available to me better than a 20-minute service that is available to me.
SC and BS locations must be payed for. First is cheaper than the second, no way around it. Company that does not need to pay for BS locations will have cheaper EVs to sell.
It doesn't matter how cool something would be, if it doesn't make economic sense, it is a dead end.
The most that could make economic sense is battery rental on small scale i.e. at Service Centers with minimal investments. Everything needed is already there. Battery swapping/rental at service centers is thus almost pure added value. A no-brainer when the car is already designed with swapping in mind.
It also chimes with what Elon said. He did not sound like a big announcement is due like that about SC, it's supposedly 'only' a cool demo.
A cool demo of what is possible but won't be of much use to most owners. It is there as on option for those who happen to live/drive nearby enough to use it.
MS85 could get another 30% charging speedup.
I still don't see how is one location that offers 5-minute 'fast charge' better than two (or even more) distinct locations offering ~20-min 'fast charging' service. The second benefits more customers.
The second option adds way more value to Tesla brand than first one. Still no one produced the argument how is 5-minute charging that is not available to me better than a 20-minute service that is available to me.
SC and BS locations must be payed for. First is cheaper than the second, no way around it. Company that does not need to pay for BS locations will have cheaper EVs to sell.
It doesn't matter how cool something would be, if it doesn't make economic sense, it is a dead end.
The most that could make economic sense is battery rental on small scale i.e. at Service Centers with minimal investments. Everything needed is already there. Battery swapping/rental at service centers is thus almost pure added value. A no-brainer when the car is already designed with swapping in mind.
It also chimes with what Elon said. He did not sound like a big announcement is due like that about SC, it's supposedly 'only' a cool demo.
A cool demo of what is possible but won't be of much use to most owners. It is there as on option for those who happen to live/drive nearby enough to use it.
If this is true, MS85 could be charged with 170 kW with no ill effect on cells. 170 kW is for 85kWh pack exactly what is 120 kW for 60kWh pack.
MS85 could get another 30% charging speedup.
I thought 120 kw was the safe maximum for the current connector and cables inside of the Model S. I forget where I read that.
It can likely actually go higher. I am sure there is a safety margin engineered into the design. Probably another 20% is the real maximum.
But for the safety of an average user, 120 kw might be the Model S maximum.
No, as I said it will most probably charge in the same amount of time, i.e. 0-50% in 20 minutes. That works out to 90 kW.
It's interesting that the $12k battery replacement option announced months ago can't be ordered right now. It's possible that this is related to the June 20th announcement... $12k battery replacement option is actually $12k for 8 years of battery swap and for a new battery at the end of the 8 years.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17993-Is-Tesla-Still-offering-the-battery-replacement-option
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17993-Is-Tesla-Still-offering-the-battery-replacement-option
When debating dual-cable super-charging at 240 kW the main argument against it was that cells couldn't take it without considerable damage.
But if MS60 and MS85 do charge with same power that means they charge with same current. MS60 cells thus already get 1/3 higher C-rated charging as MS85 cells and that MS85 could take 1/3 more SC power just to level with MS60 C-rated charing.
MS60 is alredy being charged at up to 2C, MS85 only up to 1,4C.
Existing cables are OK for at least 300A (i.e. 120kW). Such current demands 4/O cables (11mm diameter). DC Cable calculator says same cable is OK if 1% losses are acceptable.
What it really boils down to is connector and it's contact surface.
But if MS60 and MS85 do charge with same power that means they charge with same current. MS60 cells thus already get 1/3 higher C-rated charging as MS85 cells and that MS85 could take 1/3 more SC power just to level with MS60 C-rated charing.
MS60 is alredy being charged at up to 2C, MS85 only up to 1,4C.
Average user safety is not depended on power but on cable design. Insulation is OK for 400V no matter what power it transfers (until temps are under control).
Existing cables are OK for at least 300A (i.e. 120kW). Such current demands 4/O cables (11mm diameter). DC Cable calculator says same cable is OK if 1% losses are acceptable.
What it really boils down to is connector and it's contact surface.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Yep, it's official, Thursday night's demo will be "live" and have many in the media watching closely:
Elon Musk: Tesla to demo battery swap tech on Thursday night Tech News and Analysis
I think kudos are in order to CapitalistOppressor, who called this about 5 weeks ago on this forum, on the basis of Tesla's SEC Filings. And to Citizen-T, who kept this very interesting thread on track in the face of all attempts to say "no, it can't be battery swapping".
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Wow, I agree. Didn't really think they would be going this route so they definitely called it. Nice work.
Maybe they'll keep Supercharging free and charge for the convenience of the swap station? I'm sure some people who were in a rush and didn't want to wait the extra 20 min or so (or if all the Superchargers were full) wouldn't mind paying some amount like $10 for a battery swap. Still easily 1/5 the amount of a gas fill-up in the same amount of time.
If their plans for these swap stations is as aggressive as the Superchargers then that will be impressive. I wonder how they handle someone picking up a pack that has maybe 50,000 miles more on it than the one you dropped off and therefore has less rated range for example. Maybe they'll try and keep packs of a certain newness in the swap stations and move the rest to grid storage?
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Rla
Member
+1
Now anyone care to revisit the possible business plans that can make sense?
To refute the claims of 'BetterPlace failed': BetterPlace did not have any customers for their service, Tesla has plenty already.
For me, the BS should now officially called SuperSwappers (I hope CO has trademarked it and can license it to Tesla)
Now anyone care to revisit the possible business plans that can make sense?
To refute the claims of 'BetterPlace failed': BetterPlace did not have any customers for their service, Tesla has plenty already.
I've been reading the comments posted by readers on all the articles in the mainstream media today on Tesla's battery swapping demonstration. They seem to confirm one of the main points of my thesis: while those of us that spend every waking moment thinking about EVs and battery degradation and business plans have reservations about battery swapping, 99% of Tesla's future customers are all for it.
If nothing else, this will bring in new customers.
If nothing else, this will bring in new customers.
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