Swapping is Coming [Discuss how it will be accomplished]

[deonb]

You've misconstrued Tork's argument. It is not that people living in cities with access to home charging will need battery swapping: it's that people living in cities who park on the street or in public garages without access to charging need battery swapping. Millions and millions of apartment dwellers fall into that category: not everyone lives in a single-family detached home with a garage. That's optionality, and it give Tesla Motors access to a huge cohort of folks who might want to buy a Tesla but can't figure out the charging conundrum without it.

In fact I'm sitting in my car parked on a street like that right now. Dozens and dozens of cars lines up on both side of the street. It would be a great shame if 50 years from now these cars would still need to be ICE's because we couldn't figure out a way for them NOT to have to charge at home.

Having said that, this problem may be too big for Tesla to solve right now and too risky overall. It will take tens of years to build out a in-city network of swappers, and by that time the technology, or at least the form factor, would likely be obsolete. We know in all likelihood that there will be 1000 mile Al-Air batteries available in 10 years, which would provide a great solution to the problem, but in such a world, a partner like Costco is much better suited to provide support for those kind of batteries.

 

[copyhacker]

People with no experience with EVs will greatly prefer battery swapping over supercharging or home charging (even if they might find it to be rarely necessary once they own one) and Tesla will have to attract mainly people with no EV experience for Gen III.

Apple did basically this with the OSX Dashboard. No one uses it, but it looks great in demos, and probably sells a few Macs.

 

[brianman]

[re: battery swapping] He's even said recently that he's skeptical about it.

I'm pretty sure that's not what he said. Please provide the actual quote and a reference to where you heard or saw it. Thanks.

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Kind of like how many automakers announce a really cheap stripped-down model. They produce almost none of them, and they are impossible to find at dealerships. Most people buy much more expensive versions. But, the fact that that one model is "available" for $19,999 got a lot of people to consider the car that would have otherwise dismissed it as too expensive.

Same thing with swapping.

... and like 40 kWh.

 

[Miggs]

Don't forget, Citizen-T started this thread because he believes battery swapping will happen and this thread is to discuss how it will be accomplished.

It appears a lot of folks are now discussing whether or not it is a good idea. Whether or not they think this thread is about a hypothetical reality is irrelevant... all thread starters (in this case Citizen T) are allowed to invent subjects of their choosing.

I suggest those folks stop hijacking this thread and seek other places to post in. This thread is about how battery swapping will be accomplished.

The person who mentioned Costco has the right idea. In the long term, Tesla will not be the only corporate entity involved in this. Just as we drive down the road and see Autozone, Pep Boys, Jiffy Lube and O'Reilly all offering services for gas-powered cars, we will see companies other than Tesla offering services for electric-only cars. Who's to say Tesla won't do a deal with Costco to install a battery swapping station in every Costco parking lot? Or even better... do a deal with Walmart? Walmart parking lots always seem to have surplus space and they are evenly spaced all across the USA, from small towns to big. Can you imagine a Tesla battery-swapping station in every Walmart parking lot across the USA? At first a lot of people might wonder what it is or what it's for, but once you see cars driving in and out it will become clearer. If Walmart and Tesla split the fee for each battery swap (and Tesla probably pays for all installations), it could make sense for Walmart to enter into that partnership, and the U.S. population suddenly gets 3-4,000 battery swapping locations that they already know how to get to. (most people know where the nearest Walmart is) Also Walmart gets affluent customers in their parking lots... perhaps more likely to go in and spend money, too.

 

[Johan]

I'm pretty sure that's not what he said. Please provide the actual quote and a reference to where you heard or saw it. Thanks.

He said: "It's not a brilliant idea" by which he meant: It's not something that's hard to think of, we've been doing it for years on other devices. He doesn't talk about whether it's a good concept or not - obviously tvey think it's a good concept since they're doing it!

 

[brianman]

He said: "It's not a brilliant idea" by which he meant: It's not something that's hard to think of, we've been doing it for years on other devices. He doesn't talk about whether it's a good concept or not - obviously tvey think it's a good concept since they're doing it!

Indeed. That's what I've heard him say more than once. But people keep seeming to misread it, or there's another phrasing they're referring to -- and I'd like to hear that phrasing if it exists.

 

[HVM]

What if the battery swapping stations consist a car lift + tech with power tool and chargers... ;P

 

[renim]

lets assume pack swap is 60 seconds, thats 85kwh x 60 swaps per hour ~ 5,000kw 'recharge rate' ~ 50supercharger slots

lets assume there are 50 supercharger slots, 50 DC chargers (or 25 twin share) but 100 cars turn up at once.

instead of making 2 batches of 50 park and charge,
1 batch can park and charge
1 batch can swap and go
but only 50 DC chargers (or 25 twin share) are now needed to serve 100 cars.
ie
once a supercharger station is large enough, there is synergy between charging and swapping, the swap station can use the DC supercharging infrastructure at non peak times (ie off peak, and shoulder) (and DC supercharging can probably use swap station storage usefully also)

so the application of swapstations becomes a frugal way for Tesla to serve both chargers and swappers

the exact numbers will change ie swap time, charge rate etc, but the principle remains, there is synergy to co-locate the services, but it starts with a large charging station and cheaply doubles it capacity.

Its probably closer to a 12 spot charge station becomes a good base to add swapNgo capability

 

[deonb]

While we're imagining...

One thing we do know is that the battery swappers can be installed in a matter of hours. So it must not be some sort of elaborate robot. (Based on the fact that the biggest infrastructure so far in Hawthorne is in support of camera equipment.)

However... I think there is more to this tweet:
"Battery pack swap works with all Tesla Model S cars, past and present. It was always there."

That statement seems to be too obvious to be useful. It's unnecessary. It's like saying: "Tire rotation works with all Tesla Model S cars, past and present. It was always there."

Yes, it's technically true... but doesn't really seem worthy of a tweet. We already know (at this point) that the car support battery swapping. With an obvious interpretation of battery swap, it's obvious that all cars thus support battery swapping. Why would that even be a question in someone's mind? He didn't say: "We will offer battery swaps for all Model S's" (answering the question to 60's and 40's as per the level of service). He said it will work. But then - what makes this an open technical question? It's obviously the same form factor pack bolted onto the same frame on all cars. If it works for one offering, it works for all.

However, what if the car is actively involved in the swap? What if the car has hardware to assist in the swap? NOW only do you need an answer to the question of "which cars?".

So if you buy that's it's reasonable to assume that the car has some sort of swapping hardware, let's see if we can take that a bit further:


What if there are NO actual swappers?

What if the swap is completely performed by the Model S, and can do so from a stationary battery? (i.e. the batteries aren't just bolted unto the frame like we're assuming - it's actually bolted unto a small swapper assembly).

Then what you have at Swapper stations isn't really swappers so much as just a conveyer system to store & place the batteries in the Teslabelisk for charging.

Ok, you say, it saves a bit of money for the swapper network, but it makes the car more expensive for everyone. Why would you do that?


Well... I'm glad you asked! Because doing that enables a mind-blowing scenario:

* Two Model S's meet up one night in a dimly lit parking lot. One is full, the other empty.
* They both lower their batteries onto the parking lot floor.
* They drive over each other's battery, supported by an ILS-like navigation system on the 17" screen.
* The raise the other battery.

Still... you say, that's cool and all, but the scenario seems thin. So I can swap with a friend, but I'm a computer geek, and I have no friends.


Aha! (I say). Here's the kicker...

Support this by a social media app to connect swappers with swap-donors, complete with voting and geo-location, and push the $30 or so that the swappers would generally pay for a swap at a swap station over to the donors instead.

That would mean Tesla just got itself a network with up to 13'000 potential swapping points, growing by the day... for free.

How cool would that be?

 

[JRP3]

I don't know what you're smoking but pass some this way please.

 

[Johan]

I don't know what you're smoking but pass some this way please.

I second that (both the "what are you smoking" and the "pass some this way please" part)

 

[Raffy.Roma]

I think that this battery swap matter is generating a new disease:

TMSOAWWSHBSW (Tesla Model S Owner Anxiety While Waiting to See How Battery Swap Works) :scared:

 

[deonb]

I don't know what you're smoking but pass some this way please.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

@deonb

also to me please :biggrin:

 

[JRP3]

View attachment 24067

I'm thinking it's closer to this

 

[DonPedro]

Well... I'm glad you asked! Because doing that enables a mind-blowing scenario:

* Two Model S's meet up one night in a dimly lit parking lot. One is full, the other empty.
* They both lower their batteries onto the parking lot floor.
* They drive over each other's battery, supported by an ILS-like navigation system on the 17" screen.
* The raise the other battery.

...each of the cars being propelled by their 12V batteries.

I like the imagination, though. Imagining the impossible is what has made stuff like the TMS.

 

[Tork]

Based on what you described, it sounds like you don't have much experience with the EVs or more specifically the Model S. With a 200-300 mile range, you don't need battery swaps or Superchargers in the city. You start each day with a full battery pack.

Considering the fact that I have a model s and you don't, my experience already outweighs yours. But good job completely misinterpreting my entire post. Even if it wasn't articulated properly the point was still there. And it's all obvious conjecture given that none of us really know what's happening tonight. I reiterate that tesla is not here to serve your specific needs and desires as much as you think the world revolves around you. They sell cars. And anything they do to sell more cars is a plus.

So tell me, with your car parked on the streets of NY, tell me how you plan to wake up to a full tank every morning.

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Sorry about the above post. Posted it without seeing the post about hijacking. Have no idea how to edit/ remove it

 

[deonb]

...each of the cars being propelled by their 12V batteries.

I like the imagination, though. Imagining the impossible is what has made stuff like the TMS.

I originally had something like this at the end, but removed it to shorten the post:


The car obviously needs power to drive. However, if you look at protruding part of the battery pack (where the hoses go in), you can see there are no bolts. What if the battery pack can separate at that point to leave part of the pack in the car (enough to drive), while the rest of it is swapped?

Or maybe there are some low-charge rate batteries in the car that don't need liquid cooling.

Or maybe this finally answers the question of why we need a separate 12V battery (although the current one might be too light to power the car).

 

[callmesam]

Less than 45 second swap teased by Elon

pic.twitter.com/QgZzggjIkq

 

[Lloyd]

Looks in this photo that we are also seeing a new "hybrid Wheel" Silver around the tire and dark centers! A new look!!