Ten batteries in stock and 6-minute swapping would mean that the station will never run out of fully charged batteries. The first empty battery will be fully charged (charging at 1C) after the tenth has been swapped. This will most likely also work with 4-minute swapping as nobody coasts into the charging station with a 0% charge (perhaps unless you write for the NYT).
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Swapping is Coming [Discuss how it will be accomplished]
- Thread starter Citizen-T
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Ten batteries in stock and 6-minute swapping would mean that the station will never run out of fully charged batteries. The first empty battery will be fully charged (charging at 1C) after the tenth has been swapped. This will most likely also work with 4-minute swapping as nobody coasts into the charging station with a 0% charge (perhaps unless you write for the NYT).
deonb
Active Member
Never mind the $1b capex - that 1000 stations would also run up a monthly real estate + electrical charge. That could be very high in cities, but let's just say $5000 avg. per month. So for 1000 stations, you'd need another $60m per year. Add servicing of those to it and you're up to $100m per year.
As a shareholder... PLEASE don't do this, or anything close to it.
5 minute charging is mainly addressing a perception issue. There are very few people who absolutely need it or even would use it for just 5 mins. It's just a nice-to-have marginal improvement compared to a 22 min SuperCharge @ 120kWh. You've just driven for 3 hours... you're probably not going to want to stop for just 5 mins anyway.
People unfortunately think they need it (used to gas station lifestyle). That perception changes about a week after you've owned the car, but yeah, unfortunately you have to buy one first.
I think Tesla currently addresses the perception issue better with the word-of-mouth campaign from Model S owners (that they get for free) than they can get by building out a $1b network which makes such an incrementally small difference to the actual ownership experience. It will end up being another Iridium - everybody also thinks they need cellphone reception everywhere... but in practice it's also a marginal difference that almost nobody is willing to pay for.
The Model III development cost is also about $1b. That's a MUCH better investment.
As a shareholder... PLEASE don't do this, or anything close to it.
5 minute charging is mainly addressing a perception issue. There are very few people who absolutely need it or even would use it for just 5 mins. It's just a nice-to-have marginal improvement compared to a 22 min SuperCharge @ 120kWh. You've just driven for 3 hours... you're probably not going to want to stop for just 5 mins anyway.
People unfortunately think they need it (used to gas station lifestyle). That perception changes about a week after you've owned the car, but yeah, unfortunately you have to buy one first.
I think Tesla currently addresses the perception issue better with the word-of-mouth campaign from Model S owners (that they get for free) than they can get by building out a $1b network which makes such an incrementally small difference to the actual ownership experience. It will end up being another Iridium - everybody also thinks they need cellphone reception everywhere... but in practice it's also a marginal difference that almost nobody is willing to pay for.
The Model III development cost is also about $1b. That's a MUCH better investment.
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There's no need to display a number on an extra device above a doorway, because the tablet inside the car can do this much better and at virtually no additional cost
. I'd implement a reservation system of some kind with which the driver simply announces "I need a battery swap" and the software calculates and reserves a battery at the nearest swap station and guides the driver to it. Maybe even with autopilot, which is a sure thing to come.Royal TS(LA) - I had thought of that but left it out of my proposal to avoid complexity. But no doubt, things become more elaborate over time, look how getting a good seat on an airplane has become!
You are probably right in fact. If all cars have a 3G connection, they ought to be able to tell how many good batteries are in the station. In fact drivers' map of swapping stations would simply be numbers dotted around the landscape, almost like an ordnance survey!
I think drivers can reserve a battery as long as they make all reasonable efforts to get to the swapping station. It's unproductive for drivers to reserve a battery and then not actually go to get it. If there was only one good battery left in the place, it would be crappy to drive up to the station and not be able to get it because it was reserved by someone who was a long way off. Perhaps the GPS location of the reserving car could be helpful? I think as long as there was a way to lose your reservation because you didn't go to get it while there was already demand by other drivers (who hadn't made a reservation, but they are at the station), it would be fine. I can see Tesla supporting battery reservations because they could charge a few bucks for the luxury. (if you lose your reservation you do not get your reservation money back!)
I just saw Elon Musk's video where he personally stated "20 to 22 minutes" for a full charge. For me, it actually brings into question the entire battery-swapping process. (especially when you see the map of supercharger locations) It'll be interesting to see how things develop.
You are probably right in fact. If all cars have a 3G connection, they ought to be able to tell how many good batteries are in the station. In fact drivers' map of swapping stations would simply be numbers dotted around the landscape, almost like an ordnance survey!
I think drivers can reserve a battery as long as they make all reasonable efforts to get to the swapping station. It's unproductive for drivers to reserve a battery and then not actually go to get it. If there was only one good battery left in the place, it would be crappy to drive up to the station and not be able to get it because it was reserved by someone who was a long way off. Perhaps the GPS location of the reserving car could be helpful? I think as long as there was a way to lose your reservation because you didn't go to get it while there was already demand by other drivers (who hadn't made a reservation, but they are at the station), it would be fine. I can see Tesla supporting battery reservations because they could charge a few bucks for the luxury. (if you lose your reservation you do not get your reservation money back!)
I just saw Elon Musk's video where he personally stated "20 to 22 minutes" for a full charge. For me, it actually brings into question the entire battery-swapping process. (especially when you see the map of supercharger locations) It'll be interesting to see how things develop.
Parse his response to battery swapping question in the call:
He did not respond anything like this to any of the other OT questions. The emphasis was on "today". Go figure.
"Consumers are used to the concept of battery swapping." [Ed.:Except Apple customers, of course].
I think the economics part should relate to the grid storage he announced. As discussed on this forum already, grid storage revenues from utilities can finance the extra packs needed to make a swapping model work. Not sure what the convenience improvement is. May simply be the (already known) fact that the packs can be very easily swapped, maybe combined with some sort of swapping station robotics/logistics solution.
He did not respond anything like this to any of the other OT questions. The emphasis was on "today". Go figure.
Any other way to understand this than "supercharger AND superswapping"?
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"Consumers are used to the concept of battery swapping." [Ed.:Except Apple customers, of course].
"You have to come up with something clever in terms of convenience and economics. We did. Announcement June 20th."
I think the economics part should relate to the grid storage he announced. As discussed on this forum already, grid storage revenues from utilities can finance the extra packs needed to make a swapping model work. Not sure what the convenience improvement is. May simply be the (already known) fact that the packs can be very easily swapped, maybe combined with some sort of swapping station robotics/logistics solution.
--Eisenhower
Elon is a master of growing problems to the point that they can finally be solved. People have tried for some time to boil the problem of the electric car down to a single element: battery density. Elon instead grew the problem and made it not about just the technology, but about the design, the performance, the fit and finish, the sales and service experience, etc.
On the matter of long distance travel in an EV, there have been arguments against battery swapping (which have been mentioned above) and there have been arguments against the Supercharger network. Today Elon spoke about a solution to the cost of Supercharging. He said that they were testing a system that involved grid storage for solar. It seems to me that while the grid storage piece is on the surface a solution to the cost of Supercharging, it also half the solution to the battery swapping problem.
Has Elon found a way to make swapping work by combining these two problems to make one larger (but easier to solve) problem? Is the "grid" storage simply a set of Model S batteries that can either be discharged through a Supercharger OR swapped out entirely? I think it could be.
Sorry, I can buy people saying they don't think Tesla's going to announce this, but if they do announce it I have confidence they have thought about it more than you and I trust their decision more. Feel free to short the stock, since you (like many others) know better. :wink:
My goodness this is exactly it. This is essentially the way Solarcity operates. A network... a battery for the grid are a string of Model S Battery packs hooked up together. wow I need June 20th to come sooner.
OK, what would such swapping stations ADD to the whole problem of long traveling?
Every swapping station costs at least twice as much as a SC no matter how you turn it or how you amortize the battery costs. Every $ spent on SC enables more distant miles traveled than $ spent on battery swapping.
Plugging in the cable is just cheaper and simpler than replacing the battery, no way around this hard fact. Using the battery pack to balance the grid can be done with SCs also.
SC now pumping up to 120kW into batteries, giving half a range in 20 minutes, also very sharply reduce the time gained with swapping. Also SC locations have multiple charging spots (at least 2 at every SC), battery swapping would be much more serialized increasing average wait time.
Above holds for swapping the main battery pack.
Swapping a secondary battery modules opens whole new world that enables more miles traveled per $ than any *static* SC can. Why? SC are raised where Tesla thinks they are most needed i.e. useful by the number owners.
If you live in sparsely populated area or away from big traffic connections you might be cut off from this the long-distance-traveling-backbone.
Such secondary swappable modules could be put in the frunk together with some spare ones in the trunk and cover thousands? miles of autonomy before needing a SC, charger or another station to buy those modules. Such modules could even be shipped to your home address somewhere in high alaska.
Such "secondary" modules would instantly enable people who don't own a garage or live near a public charging station to own and drive an EV. For them it would be pretty much same as with gasoline, every now and then they would need to go to a 'swapping' station, buy new and sell old worn modules. Or have them shipped by ship or helicopter to their home address.
Now, do we have the tech?
Every swapping station costs at least twice as much as a SC no matter how you turn it or how you amortize the battery costs. Every $ spent on SC enables more distant miles traveled than $ spent on battery swapping.
Plugging in the cable is just cheaper and simpler than replacing the battery, no way around this hard fact. Using the battery pack to balance the grid can be done with SCs also.
SC now pumping up to 120kW into batteries, giving half a range in 20 minutes, also very sharply reduce the time gained with swapping. Also SC locations have multiple charging spots (at least 2 at every SC), battery swapping would be much more serialized increasing average wait time.
Above holds for swapping the main battery pack.
Swapping a secondary battery modules opens whole new world that enables more miles traveled per $ than any *static* SC can. Why? SC are raised where Tesla thinks they are most needed i.e. useful by the number owners.
If you live in sparsely populated area or away from big traffic connections you might be cut off from this the long-distance-traveling-backbone.
Such secondary swappable modules could be put in the frunk together with some spare ones in the trunk and cover thousands? miles of autonomy before needing a SC, charger or another station to buy those modules. Such modules could even be shipped to your home address somewhere in high alaska.
Such "secondary" modules would instantly enable people who don't own a garage or live near a public charging station to own and drive an EV. For them it would be pretty much same as with gasoline, every now and then they would need to go to a 'swapping' station, buy new and sell old worn modules. Or have them shipped by ship or helicopter to their home address.
Now, do we have the tech?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Yes. Gasoline or diesel and a generator at home. But I guess that's not what you had in mind. Maybe the answer to your question is Li-Air batteries, or maybe Al-air, perhaps some sort of fuel cell, but right here right now I don't believe there is a tech that is commercially available.
deonb
Active Member
What makes us think that the announcement is about something that is commercially available now?
It could just be a demo about "Hey, look at this - we've got a Model S running on this Al-Air prototype. We'll also use it for the Gen 3, and license it to other folks. Over the 3 years we'll be working on the form factor as well as the regulatory and safety approvals, and then we start to sell it commercially in 2017".
Keep in mind that the Model S was first announced on August 2, 2006.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
deonb
Active Member
And taking out an Al-air battery from your Frunk, walking into a Chevron, exchanging it for another one, and putting the new one back into your Frunk is not swapping?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
"In their recent SEC filing, on page 38 outlining future plans, Tesla discusses what factors may affect the adoption of electric vehicles. Specifically, the filing says that the ability to “…rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack, and the development of specialized public facilities to perform such swapping, which do not currently exist, but which we plan to introduce in the near future.”"
Exciting times ahead. Let's talk again about it June 21st. Maybe we're both right?
deonb
Active Member
I really hope not ( even if I have to be the one to be wrong
). I don't want there to be 3 different roadtrip charger/swapper technologies that customers have to wrap their head around. Some people don't even know you can charge at home.
E.g.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWBE_qZCLvQ
1:50 to 2:23. Doesn't it just want to make you strangle that guy?
This. Somewhere, Elon mentioned that the upcoming announcement will be for the "longer term". (Can't exactly remember the reference right now).
Well, the obvious answer is that it eliminates the 20 min wait. You get 100% refill in 2 mins as opposed to 20 mins for half (or some 40 mins for a full charge). Despite what Elon says, there are plenty of cases where people don't want to wait 20 mins at a stop. My family make a trip from Raleigh to PA several times a year. We make one 20 min stop along the way. I still can't replicate this in a Model S w/ the Supercharger network.
But you assume that customers would not be willing to pay for the value added by a swapping station that I described above. Comparing the cost of a free Supercharger to a Battery Swap Station that you have to pay for is a flawed argument. The theory that I outlined in the OP made clear that because of the higher cost of swapping stations, there will need to be a fee of some kind to use the station.
Furthermore, if every station is going to have battery packs for grid storage anyway, and the batteries (as many have said) are the most expensive element of a swap station, then the additional cost to upgrade a Supercharger only station to a Supercharger/Battery Swap station is probably minimal. I would think that gap can easily be filled by charging users a fee.
Well, I can agree with your first point. The increase to 120kW does reduce the value added by swapping. But, swapping is still 20x faster than charging via Supercharger...so it is far from insignificant.
Your second point I have to disagree with. Yes, swapping would be serial while Supercharging can be done in parallel; but, you'd need 20 Supercharging ports to match the throughput of a single swapping station. So, I don't see how you come to the conclusion that swapping would increase the average wait time.
See, I find this discussion useless because of what you said at the end there. This is science fiction and will be for a number of years still.
deonb
Active Member
I must say I REALLY like the end-to-end fundamentals in your argument. Batteries for grid storage makes sense, and as a whole it forms a great and coherent end-to-end model.
However, it is predicated on that Battery Swapping will ALWAYS be significantly faster than Supercharging.
So Elon & Co. must have put their long-term hats on and said:
"Charging in 5 mins will not happen within at least 5 to 10 years - if ever. We need something else to carry us - at least until then.".
Would you agree with this premise? (Or do you think Battery Swapping is still a good idea even if there was 5-min Supercharging?)
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