Taking a gamble on the PCP MGFV vs terminating early and switching model

[WannabeOwner]

there could well be an all new S announced by 2020

I've been impressed with the "consumption" figures of the M3. Some of that TECH coming back to the MS would be good. Also a higher energy-density battery (perhaps lighter for same-range at the bottom end, and same-weight, more range, at the top end)

I can see that getting the top end to 130kWH and, for me, that would change Supercharging from a couple of times a month to once-a-year or less (130 kWH would take the 100 from 300-mile range to 400-mile range ...). As Superchargers become more clogged that might turn out to be even more worthwhile.

Seems to me (but purely subjective) that, compared to "a while ago", there has been an increase in the number of folk who were at Supercharger when I arrive and still there when I leave. So I'm assuming that I just need "miles to destination" but they are e.g. 75s and needing a more significant charge to continue their journey.

Higher ratio of smaller battery models, in the fleet, will exacerbate that.

 

[Mark_T]

I wonder what the demand actually is for something with higher range?

No doubt it exists, but at what price?

I can't help thinking that improvements in efficiency are more likely than significant battery capacity increase unless the cost per kWh can be brought down significantly.

With demand for batteries likely to exceed production capacity a price fall doesn't seem likely...

 

[WannabeOwner]

improvements in efficiency are more likely

That works for me too ... "more range" is all it needs to be I tried some figures in A Better Route Planner:

S100D 337Wh/mile, range 273 miles
M3 long range Aero 258Wh/mile, range 277 miles

The M3's 85kWh battery, scaled up to 100kWh (assuming no increase in weight), would have theoretical range of 325 miles, so other things being equal (MS is bigger ... but body is Aluminium, so maybe same power-to-weight?) retro-fitting the efficiencies of the M3, into MS, could give 19% improvement

significant battery capacity increase unless the cost per kWh can be brought down significantly

All speculation and supposition, but there has been quite a bit of chatter that the price of the coming-soon "Semi" [articulated lorry] can only be realised if the battery density will increase, and the per-kWh price will fall. That's a couple of years away from actual vehicles on road, so Tesla may be expecting improvements in that time ... but assuming that cheaper/lighter/more energy-dense is coming then that might coincide with revamp of MS

With demand for batteries likely to exceed production capacity a price fall doesn't seem likely...

I think everyone except Tesla is battery-capacity limited. I think Tesla will be able to produce all they could need from Giga factory(s)

 

[Mark_T]

As a data point for others, I just got my final paperwork for the PCP finance and I thought the method of calculating the 'Total Amount Payable', and hence the 50% point when you have the option to walk away, was interesting and to some extent not obvious.

They take the full price of the car before deduction of the EV grant, but after any discount applied by Tesla, and add the interest for the period of the PCP plan to that figure.

I know if you already are in the middle of a PCP plan then this will be no surprise, but for those like me trying to work out the numbers before you get that far, it wasn't obvious that they would start with the full sale price, pre-deposit, pre-EV Grant etc.

Net result still isn't very different for me due to the 49% residual and the low interest, but for the sake of accuracy, I reach the 50% point after 42 of the 48 payments

 

[DJP31]

They take the full price of the car before deduction of the EV grant, but after any discount applied by Tesla, and add the interest for the period of the PCP plan to that figure

As per the norm with Tesla (although I would have thought this would be standardised by law) there is inconsistency.

On my agreement, which is with Tesla Finance (they offered in-house for a short while), they take the cash price after the £4.5k grant, add the interest, divide by 2 and that’s the hand back point.

As an aside and OT, are you aware of the spate of S’s that have/are being stolen? Another 2 have gone this week. It’s linked with the Passive Entry feature - keyless entry/start stop in English. It’s not by any means unique to Tesla, and we are very fortunate in that we can disable PE via the settings. Tesla recently auto disabled the function via an OTA update with a poorly worded warning before you re-enable.

Keeping the keys in a Faraday Cage type pouch and/or a metal airtight tin is another option, but the general advice is be wary of keeping PE on, especially overnight. The thefts are seemingly localised in the London/Essex area.

 

[Mark_T]

Yes, I've been aware of this issue for a while, but thanks for mentioning it.

 

[Peteski]

As per the norm with Tesla (although I would have thought this would be standardised by law) there is inconsistency.

On my agreement, which is with Tesla Finance (they offered in-house for a short while), they take the cash price after the £4.5k grant, add the interest, divide by 2 and that’s the hand back point.

As an aside and OT, are you aware of the spate of S’s that have/are being stolen? Another 2 have gone this week. It’s linked with the Passive Entry feature - keyless entry/start stop in English. It’s not by any means unique to Tesla, and we are very fortunate in that we can disable PE via the settings. Tesla recently auto disabled the function via an OTA update with a poorly worded warning before you re-enable.

Keeping the keys in a Faraday Cage type pouch and/or a metal airtight tin is another option, but the general advice is be wary of keeping PE on, especially overnight. The thefts are seemingly localised in the London/Essex area.

Yeah I disable passive entry overnight and just enable it during the day for convenience. Most other cars don’t have that sort of flexibility.