Think I'm in the same boat as you may-jul for base model. When did you order? I ordered 4/1/16 at about 10pm et. I know that there are quite a few others who ordered on 4/1 that have April-June time frames. Hoping that means that would put me more towards the May-June portion of the window so I can snag the $7500 credit.
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Tax Credit Clarification
- Thread starter SmarterMotors
- Start date
Think I'm in the same boat as you may-jul for base model. When did you order? I ordered 4/1/16 at about 10pm et. I know that there are quite a few others who ordered on 4/1 that have April-June time frames. Hoping that means that would put me more towards the May-June portion of the window so I can snag the $7500 credit.
Hi guys. I have a question regarding California "Increased" EV rebate for <300% Federal Poverty Level (FPL).
If I happen to start my job later in a year and had no income during that year, will I be eligible to sign up for this? Assuming that the income falls within the <300% FPL level.
Thanks.
If I happen to start my job later in a year and had no income during that year, will I be eligible to sign up for this? Assuming that the income falls within the <300% FPL level.
Thanks.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Sounds right.
Just keep in mind that taxable income includes more than just wages, and you should check whether "income" for FPL purposes is counted differently.
Adding up the numbers on Inside EVs, Tesla had sold about 138,255 cars in the US as of the end of last month. Because Tesla doesn't report US sales directly, the site comes up with their numbers based on new car registrations in each state and there may be a few inaccuracies. So far this year they have sold 26,940 Model S and X in the US, if they continue on that pace, they will sell another 13-14K Model S/X by the end of the year. It may be a bit higher because production is higher at the end of a year than at the beginning, but the Model S/X lines are becoming maxxed out. Their projections are for 50K Model S and 50K Model X a year going forward and they are pretty close to that now.
That puts them at around 150K Model S/X and Roadsters counting against the limit (Roadsters sold in 2010 counted).
The Model 3 is being delivered in small numbers now and that will increase by the end of the year, but the only sales that count against the total are American sales. If December rolls around and it looks like Model 3 production is going to put them over the top, they can start prioritizing sales to Canada or other countries.
Production would have to be ramping up very well to make 50K Model 3 by the end of the year. It is possible, but they just have to make sure fewer than 50K are sold in the US to stay under the line. Then they go over the line Jan 2 and the incentive stays at $7500 until the end of June. It's still half that for the last half of 2018.
I ordered my M3 on Apr 3rd and the 220 mile version is estimated for May - Jul 2018, while 310 mile version is estimated for Feb - Apr 2018.
I too took the data from Inside EVs and plotted that with linear extrapolation for years 2018 and 2019. The current projection for end of 2017 is 147K, for end of 2018 - 183K, this projection doesn't include M3, just S and X. Not knowing how many M3 have been reserved for the US market and the production schedule, it's hard to estimate when the magic number 200K will be hit.
I too took the data from Inside EVs and plotted that with linear extrapolation for years 2018 and 2019. The current projection for end of 2017 is 147K, for end of 2018 - 183K, this projection doesn't include M3, just S and X. Not knowing how many M3 have been reserved for the US market and the production schedule, it's hard to estimate when the magic number 200K will be hit.
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By Tesla's production schedule they are planning to be building about 20K Model 3s per month by December. Every single car will be shipped to the US until late 2018. Does that make it easier?
Scannerman
Member
I would start a new thread, but sadly do not know how! But this seems close to the topic at hand, not to mention your expertise.
My question is as follows. If two unmarried individuals shared the title while purchasing a new M3, could they somehow share the Federal Tax Incentive. Suppose one could only utilize a small portion, and the other wished to use the remainder. Or one wanted to take full advantage and the other party would take none. Might this be feasible?
Thanks you for your time.
Scannerman
From everything I’ve read, only one person is allowed to take the credit; it can not be shared. Either person is allowed to claim it if they are both on the registration. If it were me, I would let the person with the highest tax liability take the credit and then settle it under the table.
It might go without saying, but consult a tax professional before taking the advice of a random internet poster
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Perhaps unrelated, I thought it interesting to read that same sex couples with a state recognized marriage can file a joint federal tax return.
You're right, I should have been more specific. People filling jointly can "both" claim the credit - It's really that the credit can only be filed on one return.
Scannerman
Member
From everything I’ve read, only one person is allowed to take the credit; it can not be shared. Either person is allowed to claim it if they are both on the registration. If it were me, I would let the person with the highest tax liability take the credit and then settle it under the table.
It might go without saying, but consult a tax professional before taking the advice of a random internet poster
This sounds to me like a good stategy.
Thanks for you thoughts.
Scannerman
Hi, everybody. Tesla has just released their Q3 2017 delivery numbers here. They delivered only 220 Model 3s. That means there is no chance they will hit 200,000 USA sales in 2017. This was already unlikely but now it's not possible. That's good news because it means the federal tax credits will last longer. It looks like 200K will happen either in March 2018 (pessimistic scenario) or April 2018 (optimistic scenario).
If Tesla hits 200,000 USA sales in Q2 2018, full credits will continue until the end of Q3 2018. According to the rules, the exact date is not important but the quarter is. It turns out, there are only 2 realistic quarters to consider. Therefore there are only two possible sets of deadlines:
Optimistic Scenario (50% likely)
If Tesla hits 200,000 USA sales in Q2 2018, full credits will continue until the end of Q3 2018. According to the rules, the exact date is not important but the quarter is. It turns out, there are only 2 realistic quarters to consider. Therefore there are only two possible sets of deadlines:
Optimistic Scenario (50% likely)
- $7,500 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
- $1,875 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2019
- $7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
- $1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
You say there is a 50% chance for credits to hit 200k in Q2 next year. But doesn't that imply a very slow model 3 ramp? They were at somewhere around 130k at the end of Q2 and they add about 13-14k S+X every quarter in the US. That's around 170k by March in S and X alone. To hit 200k in Q2 means you estimate there is a 50% chance they will deliver less than 30k Model 3 by March 2018? That seems pretty low and totally not in line with the average delivery times reservation holders got from Tesla?
Hi, @schonelucht. Previously, I posted a message in this thread here and the deadlines I gave for the $7,500 full credits were 31st March 2018 or 30th June 2018. It was one of these two dates but we didn't know exactly which one. Now things have changed and the deadline is either 30th June 2018 or 30 Sep 2018. Again. I don't know exactly which one but I thought I should post an update. I guess we will have to wait for the Q3 conference call to find out more. Last year it was on Oct 26th. It is hard to guess what is happening with the Model 3 right now. The phrase they used was "We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term" (source) which means the issues are not solved yet.
That's very much within the realm of possibility. Musk has already said to prepare for production hell and a swing of some months won't matter over the long run. Frankly, that they're even to this point is an amazing improvement based on past performance.
I think Tesla would definitely manipulate deliveries in a way to maximize the tax credit. Not slowing down S/X sales artificially, but can definitely do that for the 3 with no ill effects to the stock. Release more Model Y info. Or the Tesla Semi info is cooler and affects the public more. Or announce Tesla pickup. That'll distract. From a numbers standpoint, they can release some to other countries as a "bonus". Stockholders won't care as long as the numbers show Tesla isn't suffering any major production issues. The only people screaming would be some of the more impatient early reservation holders. The rest will understand it's to preserve the tax credit for another quarter. Another couple of months won't kill me. More time to save TBH. If it means more people will get the tax credit, that will likely lead to more sales so I anticipate the great majority will either cheer (if it's just bumped a month from Mar to April) or at least not complain too loudly.
The only date that's going to matter at this point is 3/31/2018 and 30-35K Model 3 deliveries. If Tesla can't make 30K Model 3 deliveries in the next 6 months, then that's going cast doubt on scaling and/or supply chain capabilities.
I don't think Tesla is planning on international delivery until late 2018, so it's not like they can offset sales internationally.
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