Tax credit (Green ACT)

[ChadS]

The biggest problem I see is that we're not sure yet that Teslas will get a tax credit...so you could be stuck with no Tesla, unless you buy a new one with no tax credit. Although I guess that's not really THAT bad. Upgrade opportunity, and all.

A mitigating factor to holding on to your current car is that while the used market does change as new-car incentives change...it seems to happen very slowly, and never quite makes it as far as one thinks it "should". So if a tax credit does pass, I'd think you'd have time to sell and still get fairly good resale value. YMMV, of course.

 

[TravelFree]

The biggest problem I see is that we're not sure yet that Teslas will get a tax credit.

While anything is possible that assumption has very little evidence to support it. Both bills that have been introduced include language that specifically addresses the two US car makers that are currently excluded. Aside from other GREEN aspects of the bill, what you suggest would negate an entire section IV of the GREEN act and nullify the entire Senate bill. There is low probability that either happens. There are too many arguments for passage of an all inclusive tax credit Bill of some sort but the real question is when.

Currently we have to get through the COVID Relief bill and while it is moving along with a deadline to be signed by the President, no Tax Credit for EV Bill will even be discussed. Second, the House will be focused on Infrastructure Bill next. The Senate will continue with their task of Biden appointments approval. If we thought the COVID relief Bill was difficult, wait until you see the civil war with the D's on Infrastructure. I have a feeling that the GREEN HR848 could get added into the Infrastructure bill. Then when it gest passed in the House, the Senate might want to amend it to include The Electric CARS Act of 2021 parts that nullify the expiration based on success of the manufacturer and replace it with the expiration based on a calendar date. Including these EV and GREEN bills into Infrastructure would be a typical way the Congress would save time and be able to hide the clauses in a multi thousands of pages to get it past those who would be opposed to this spending bill. It would also save the Senate one Reconciliation vote for something else and pass it with 51 votes rather than 60.

Anyway, as to the sale of used EV read section 36B of Title IV of the GREEN Act HR848 where sale of a Used EV tax credit is added. I haven't studied this part for details yet but it is something anyone who wishes to sell a used EV should understand.

The other thing that is important to know and not forget, The Electric CARS Act of 2021 changes the start date of when EV delivery is allowed which is Jan 1, 2021, while the House Bill HR848 sets this to the date of signing into Law.

Overall, I am pretty sure some form of EV Tax credit will get passed for all EV's, including Tesla. To suggest otherwise really has no history in Congressional law making. It would be like saying everyone gets a Tax credit except ChadS. They just don't do that.

So, we have evidence the Congress will at some time be voting on an amendment to the Original EV Tax Credit law, but we just don't know when and what the details will be.

 

[ChadS]

It is great that you are so optimistic. After working on EV legislative issues for over a decade and being disappointed by selective bill changes, failure to pass or burial in committee far more often than not, I still feel uncertain about this (which is why I did not make an assumption about its passage, pro or con).

There are plenty of lobbyists and politicians on both sides of the aisle that want it out and will try to cut a deal, and these tactics have a long history of success.

I do agree chances of it passing are higher when it is bundled with something big that has some momentum. That is why I did not assume it would fail.

 

[Guvnah]

Overall, I am pretty sure some form of EV Tax credit will get passed for all EV's, including Tesla. To suggest otherwise really has no history in Congressional law making. It would be like saying everyone gets a Tax credit except ChadS. They just don't do that.

So, we have evidence the Congress will at some time be voting on an amendment to the Original EV Tax Credit law, but we just don't know when and what the details will be.

I rated as informative. I thought you really laid out the process and the case very well and in depth. I am hopeful it will be passed but I wonder if it will actually make it? Is it a top priority for Dems to include in a larger package? It's hard to know what the popularity of this bill or possible addition to a larger package is amongst the senate and house moderates

 

[colea]

I have a feeling that the GREEN HR848 could get added into the Infrastructure bill.

Yes, that is exactly what Rep. Thompson, sponsor of HR 848, suggested when he spoke at the Bike Summit earlier this week. That would certainly not speed things up!

 

[jbr01]

If Tesla new car prices aren’t adjusted when the green act passes, I expect the Tesla used market to take a $7k hit in used car values.

That makes me consider selling my Model 3 now and buy a new Tesla when the green act passes.

Tell me why that would be a bad move

I just sold my early Y. Worst case, I buy a new one (price has already dropped $1k) with much better build quality.

 

[Flybuddy]

The tax credit is proposed to enhance electric vehicle sales. EV purchasing is reduced since no one wants to miss out on a possible large credit. Bill may take many months and not even pass at all with potential purchasers moving back to ICE vehicles in interim. Some EV owners even selling existing vehicle as above. Unintended consequences, counter productive and producing the opposite desired result?

 

[PNWLeccy]

If Tesla new car prices aren’t adjusted when the green act passes, I expect the Tesla used market to take a $7k hit in used car values.

That makes me consider selling my Model 3 now and buy a new Tesla when the green act passes.

Tell me why that would be a bad move

I have a similar thought as I've been considering trading up to a MY but timing is the hard part of the equation. We only have 1 car and there are no concrete indications of when this would pass.

 

[TravelFree]

I rated as informative. I thought you really laid out the process and the case very well and in depth. I am hopeful it will be passed but I wonder if it will actually make it? Is it a top priority for Dems to include in a larger package? It's hard to know what the popularity of this bill or possible addition to a larger package is amongst the senate and house moderates

First, thanks for your compliments.

IMO, the Democrat Party all seem to be on board with anything that promotes GREEN and satisfies the Climate Change politically motivated science. So, yes, I do believe they have the desire to vote for this and they have the votes if they stick together. Including it in the Infrastructure Bill that is already massive would just be a way to move it up on the calendar and sneak it by with less debate than if they waited until later in the year when they have higher priorities already passed and signed into law. Regardless, the earliest I see getting a tax credit is July. I was really encouraged to see the Senate bill make the inclusion date retroactive.

If the public rolls back orders for Teslas waiting on a tax credit, then Tesla will likely add other incentives such as free lifetime Supercharging and extended Premium media subscription, maybe another price drop. Tesla has a history of doing what is necessary to trigger orders.


This morning, I visited a Ford Dealer and a VW dealer. The salesmen at both dealers are quick to tell customers they have the Tax credit and Tesla doesn't. When I mentioned that may change soon as there are two bills being examined that will give both GM and Tesla the tax credit again. They both argued that will never pass because Tesla has already exceeded the sales. Obviously these two salesmen were not familiar with the Bills. I did like what I saw with the Mach E but VW has no stock to look at yet.

 

[rxlawdude]

.
IMO, the Democrat Party ...

There is no such thing as the "Democrat Party." But for parity, the other party must be known as "Repubes."

 

[finky999]

HR 848 now has 37 co-sponsors. Unfortunatly all D’s. Maybe they haven’t reached out for R support. Still in Committtee. See: GREEN Act

 

[TravelFree]

I personally favor the Cars act but not much press on that. Either way I will probably pull the trigger on the Y in April. As Elon says "Funding Secured" just waiting to be certain on the new features I want.

I still feel they will include it inside the infrastructure bill and will combine the features of the CARS Act of 2021 too. It is just logical since other stuff having to do with EV's are already part of the Infrastructure plan.