Tax Incentives

[dragonxt]

Whats the latest projection on when the federal tax credit goes down from 7,500 USD?

 

[gearchruncher]

Sometime in 2018. They have delivered less than 100K of the 200K cars required in the USA, so it will likely not happen until the Model 3 is shipping in quantity. Even then, you have a quarter after the 200K car is sold to get the full credit.

 

[Patrick0101]

Whats the latest projection on when the federal tax credit goes down from 7,500 USD?

Tesla recently crossed 122k US sales. The rate of the Model 3 ramp in the 2nd half of this year will have a big impact on how quickly they get to 200k from here. Looking at the trend, my current estimate is Q2 2018, which means the full $7500 incentive would last until the end of Sept'18.

If Model 3 ramp goes faster than this estimate, then the date will pull in 3 or 6 months, but people will get their Model 3s sooner.

I plan to update this when the Q2 sales data is released.
All of my reasoning is in the link below:
Will You Get The $7500 Federal Incentive For Your Model 3?