Taycan impact on Model S - a theory I hope is not true

[AMPd]

This is where all are behind Tesla, and all put the cart before the horse by doing grandiose projects with little infrastructure planning
hoping to attract the buyers by looks and technology.

That’s literally how tesla started off
You’re also making the mistake of assuming automakers flush with cash won’t be able to build out a charging infrastructure in a short period of time
Tesla took years to get the supercharger coverage they have now, but that’s only because they didn’t have the funds to do it quicker. Other automakers have the money, they just need the customers.

They are catching up fast because they are making EV's that have not even reached 2012 Tesla's 265 mile range? And god knows when they could manufacture batteries on their own not to mention at Tesla's cost? That kind of statement belongs to Seeking Alpha but people here know enough to fall for that.

Can’t they just purchase the batteries from Panasonic like tesla did/does?
Tesla builds nice cars, but let’s not act like it’s something no one else can achieve

The reality is any automaker can do what tesla is doing. They just don’t want to, their business is steady, and why fix something that’s not yet broken.

 

[CarlK]

They might also be testing the design on a non performance vehicle, if the Model S had a two speed gearbox then we wouldn't see the supercars catch them at the end of the 1/4 mile.

Supercar Koenigsegg Regera does use direct drive with no transmission. Koenigsegg actually said he got the inspiration from the Model S he's owned. Taycan is much slower than Model S in 0-60 I also doubt it could reach Model S's 10.6 s 1/4 mile even with a second gear.
Refreshed Tesla Model S Performance sets 1/4-mile record straight from the factory

Think about it there is no other EV that could even reach 4 second 0-60 other than Porsche that still needed a second gear. We took it for granted but Tesla's performance may not be that easy to achieve and Tesla may just have the motor and power electronics technology others still do not have.

Can’t they just purchase the batteries from Panasonic like tesla did/does?
Tesla builds nice cars, but let’s not act like it’s something no one else can achieve

The reality is any automaker can do what tesla is doing. They just don’t want to, their business is steady, and why fix something that’s not yet broken.

How do you explain what I said above about performance then? Why is no one, even Porsche that sells car by performance, could not be close to what Tesla has even with the struggle? We are not even getting into efficiency here yet. How far behind Model S's 370 mile range, or even model 3's 310 mile, you think Taycan would be? Again I think people took Tesla's technology for granted until we now see how "competition" is like. Don't think you can explain it away by just saying they could if they want to but they don't want to compete.

Panasonic only produces battery cells. That is just a small part of the whole EV technology. Besides even battery chemistry Tesla cars use is probably co-developed by two companies, if not owned by Tesla, that Panasonic is not free to use for other customers. It was Tesla, not Panasonic, that contracted Jeff Dahn and purchased Maxwell.

 

[SCW-Greg]

As you’ve recently read, the new versions of the Model S and X are being tested in the extreme heat of the desert. Testing the battery and cooling system, along with a new suite of motors — specifically two in the back for even better (2 stage?) acceleration, and one high efficiency motor in the front to attain 400+ miles of range...

This tells me, Tesla is working on a Model S that can hang on the Nuremberg track with the Taycan, without overheating. Lap after lap. And extend its 1/4 mile performance at the same time. Or have more than twice the range of the Porsche.

I also agree with a previous poster in this thread, putting the regen behind the brake pedal will be a mistake. The connected drive dynamic that Tesla uses with one pedal driving is far more intuitive. No sloppy (delayed) hunting back and forth for the brake pedal. Just a car connected to you, that flows with you, instantly.

I see this upcoming Model S schooling the Taycan everywhere it counts — right as they roll out the Porsche. So saying the Porsche will be better (at any) performance metric will be hard pressed.


Not to mention the other Tesla performance moat... speed of innovation with software updates post-purchase. The Porsche will soon be further behind, in the course of even just 6 months post-launch.

iMHO

 

[whitex]

I think it will largely end up electrifying previous Porsche drivers more than stealing buyers from the Model S

Do you count previous porsche owners who switched to Model S? If so, that will steal from Model S demand. However, IMO Tesla seems to be doing a pretty good job pushing away existing owners, so even though I am a former Porsche owner, I am not looking to Taycan because I want a Porsche, as I already switched out from Porsche to Lexus more than a decade ago, I am looking to Taycan because I want and EV but not from Tesla anymore. If Tesla had a good service (no long waits for appointments, even longer waits for parts, and even longer for collision repairs) and good warranty (not pulling *sugar* like excluding yellowing screens from warranty), and didn't try to cram Model 3 software onto a Model S, I would have just gotten a P100D and not cared about the Taycan (yes, size wise I prefer the Model S, I just don't want to buy another new Tesla, might have to wait for Taycan Cross Turismo, it would give Tesla a bit more time to try to compete, but not holding my breath).

but without a charging network in the US, I just don't see it as competitive with Tesla.

The charging network is coming, and fast too. By the time the first Taycan rolls off the production line next year, its charging network will be roughly comparable to 2016 Tesla charging network (EA already has more live chargers around where I live than Tesla had in 2015, and their "coming soon" have been coming online actually soon, not Elon soon) - plenty of people bought Model S'es back then, so even at that level there will be demand. In about 2 years Electrify America is expected to exceed Tesla supercharger deployments, as it is getting very solid funding from VW, BMW and others to charge all their upcoming EV's.

It should do quite well in Europe though.

Not just in Europe. We know Audi eTron is already outselling (by monthly registrations) the Model X and S in Europe, and it's production limited at this time. In the US, even though eTron just started shipping, it's May'19 deliveries were 856 vs. Model X 1375, so more than half, and again, supply limited (no problem finding inventory Model X, not inventory for eTrons). Of course only time will tell, but for Tesla to stay in the game, they'll have to start competing on all facets, including service, warranty, convenience features, phone integration, etc. Unfortunately Elon seems to be betting it all on robo-taxis next year instead, so that doesn't leave much budget or focus on competing in the human-driven car market.

 

[AirKuhl]

I’ll be glad when this FUD finally dies.

As a TSLA investor myself, why is it unreasonable to be concerned? If it's really just FUD, fantastic! Please point me to a source I can read, to counter the more pessimistic ones I've already read. I have read a few but they tend to be as aggressively biased as the "FUD". I just want some data so that I can make my own opinions, not regurgitate others.

I get that anything I say that isn't 100% glowing pro-Tesla will get disliked here. I get downvoted simply for clarifying false anti-Tesla FUD on other forums too. Human nature I guess.

As a Tesla owner and investor, what I can do is compare my own ownership experience from 3 years ago vs now. Back then, Tesla would do almost anything, including flatbed my car and a loaded free loaner to my door for a minor issue, and TSLA did so well it paid for the car itself. Now Tesla is telling me that maybe the yellow screen I've had to look at for 6 months is normal wear and tear, the stock had a significant value adjustment, the last quarterly loss was 4x the most pessimistically "seeking alpha" level bears, and the decline in MS and MX sales seems to imply that M3 was cutting into MS/MX sales at least as much as the BMW sales they were supposed to cut into.

I still love my car, I want Tesla to be around forever and I fully intend on buying a Roadster assuming Tesla makes it out of the current rut and the car is all it's claimed to be. But I think it's perfectly reasonable to discuss our concerns. And if we can't talk about our concerns here, the one place populated with us actual Tesla owners and not just spectators, pundits and haters, then where exactly? Many neutral people already tend to think of us as drinking the kool-aid, why play into the stereotype they force on us?

 

[SO16]

I get that anything I say that isn't 100% glowing pro-Tesla will get disliked here.

Being 100% positive is ridiculous. Tesla has faults that need improvement.

But to go to the other extreme of suggesting insolvency is just as ridiculous.

If needed, they can raise money. They have done so about a dozen times and just did again recently. Cash flow is good. Q1 is easily explained with stopping their most popular 75D trims of S/X and entering new markets.

 

[ucmndd]

But to go to the other extreme of suggesting insolvency is just as ridiculous.

Tell that to Mr. Musk, that is if you can squeeze in some time between his personally approving every single company expense...

 

[SO16]

Tell that to Mr. Musk, that is if you can squeeze in some time between his personally approving every single company expense...

Let’s just see how this plays out the rest of this year.

And, I don’t think he’s personally approving every expense.

Twitter

“
There was another email to employees that got leaked a day or two later. Again, I think people should be cautious reading into that leaked email too much. So, I’ll briefly address that one as well.

Regarding the first email, rather than quote it directly, I’d like to take a shot at summarizing what it really said:

Hey, people of Tesla, I know you saw that we just raised a couple billion dollars, but don’t get complacent. Don’t take that to mean that you can throw money around carelessly. We still need to vigilantly look for ways to cut costs and become a more efficient company.

Just as a quick example to put this extra cash into perspective, if we had the same monthly rate of financial loss in future months as we had in Q1, the $2.4 billion we just raised would only last 10 months.

As before, to make the company as successful as possible, we need every employee to look for ways to cut costs and make Tesla more financially efficient than any other automaker on the planet.

(To strike the fear of God in your heart …) CFO Zachary Kirkhorn and I will be carefully reviewing expenses. So, really, watch your spending.

Your dank meme lord,

Elon“

 

[whitex]

Let’s just see how this plays out the rest of this year.

And, I don’t think he’s personally approving every expense.

Twitter

“
There was another email to employees that got leaked a day or two later. Again, I think people should be cautious reading into that leaked email too much. So, I’ll briefly address that one as well.

Regarding the first email, rather than quote it directly, I’d like to take a shot at summarizing what it really said:

Hey, people of Tesla, I know you saw that we just raised a couple billion dollars, but don’t get complacent. Don’t take that to mean that you can throw money around carelessly. We still need to vigilantly look for ways to cut costs and become a more efficient company.

Just as a quick example to put this extra cash into perspective, if we had the same monthly rate of financial loss in future months as we had in Q1, the $2.4 billion we just raised would only last 10 months.

As before, to make the company as successful as possible, we need every employee to look for ways to cut costs and make Tesla more financially efficient than any other automaker on the planet.

(To strike the fear of God in your heart …) CFO Zachary Kirkhorn and I will be carefully reviewing expenses. So, really, watch your spending.

Your dank meme lord,

Elon“

Well, Tesla is very secretive about their plans and numbers, plus their plans change daily, so not really worth communicating them, unless of course you believe in Elon's genius and you thinks all the daily price changes and such are pre-planned way in advance - I have a theory that in fact that might have been the case, cause price change outrage to distract from the fact that the new definition of FSD is basically the old EAP now. HOWEVER, if you believe everything Elon says, everything is peachy:

1. They have money for 10+ months
2. In 10 months or not much later (Elon said next year, so no more than 19 months), Tesla will have thousands of robo-taxis on the road making money
3. Each Model 3 will be worth $250,000 - they don't even have to find a customer to sell it to, they just release it into the robo-taxi fleet and it keeps filling their coffers with money - it's like printing money!

So, all who believe everything Elon says, buy stock, because Tesla will be rolling in cash soon. Any time they need more cash, they produce another model 3 for $30K, and it brings them $250K.

Of course if you don't buy what Elon says, well, there may be room for concern.

 

[SO16]

Well, Tesla is very secretive about their plans and numbers, plus their plans change daily, so not really worth communicating them, unless of course you believe in Elon's genius and you thinks all the daily price changes and such are pre-planned way in advance - I have a theory that in fact that might have been the case, cause price change outrage to distract from the fact that the new definition of FSD is basically the old EAP now. HOWEVER, if you believe everything Elon says, everything is peachy:

1. They have money for 10+ months
2. In 10 months or not much later (Elon said next year, so no more than 19 months), Tesla will have thousands of robo-taxis on the road making money
3. Each Model 3 will be worth $250,000 - they don't even have to find a customer to sell it to, they just release it into the robo-taxi fleet and it keeps filling their coffers with money - it's like printing money!

So, all who believe everything Elon says, buy stock, because Tesla will be rolling in cash soon. Any time they need more cash, they produce another model 3 for $30K, and it brings them $250K.

Of course if you don't buy what Elon says, well, there may be room for concern.

Elon is not known for being accurate with time estimates.

If (and this is a big if) they can pull off the robotaxis, that will be pretty big. Place your bets.

 

[sixela]

Elon is not known for being accurate with time estimates.

Moreover, in that same presentation that everyone is quoting, Elon explicitly said that he wasn't good at making time estimates, so he provided the truckload of salt himself.

 

[Magellan55]

Personally, I think we need to separate the "what should the stock price be" from the "will the company be solvent" debates. The former is all driven by speculation on a rapidly growing company that's not really making a profit yet. See Amazon's early history as a public company. Or valuations for Uber/Lyft/etc. Who really knows if TSLA is worth $100, $200, or $500 today? We won't really know for a few more years, when Tesla is stable with 2 or 3 factories worldwide, Model Y in full gear, etc. In the meantime, the stock price dropping (or going up) is pretty meaningless unless you're playing with options. Who cares.

Whether they will be solvent or not is a totally different topic. As stated above, they can raise more $$ anytime they want - Elon just doesn't want to give up any more independence. Only fools didn't realize the M3 would eat into MS sales (granted the drop in MX is a bit puzzling), and Q1's losses are totally explained by the # of cars delayed getting to overseas customers. Should Tesla mgmt have predicted that better, or planned better, sure. But extrapolating Q1 to gloom and doom for the company is silly. How many times has the company adjusted after setbacks, year after year after year? But this time suddenly they won't, and will soon be bankwupt (wait where have I heard that word before...)? The company is busy building a new factory, developing multiple new models, and rolling out new supercharger stations - not the type of activities one associates with a company running out of cash. Plus Q2 deliveries so far look like everything is back on track for a break-even quarter.

 

[Naekuh]

Don't cry.

Next-gen Tesla Model S/X rumored to have 3 electric motors, 400+ mile range

The raven looks nothing like that.

Infact it looks almost the same as my current 2018 model S.

When will we see these upgrades?
Will it be in time when FSD actually comes out?

Hope this is true -- they are calling for September to be the release time for this. Hopefully it takes a more aggressive take on the existing styling in the spirit of what the video alludes to.

We already know how Raven looks like.
Knowing Tesla we wont see a real refresh until the raven market is completely dry, infact Tesla does not have the funds to impliment an all new design as they are trying to ramp up Model Y.
Even before that there will be a "raven" update of the Model X.
And then the roadster will probably start a new can of worms.

If your hoping for that render, then have fun, i think your better off waiting for the big one to hit california and make Nevada into the new west coast.

That picture he linked is pure speculation and artest rendering.
Infact when has almost anything which was rendered actually brought into production?
Even the original Model S renders were not how the final production ended up.

That picture above is just another hope like how this was the "wishful" next gen model S interior... which obviously wont be.

We know tesla is going minimalist on there designs now.
Look at the roadster.
All those blings on both the exterior and interior.... wishful thinking...

The Taycan is a little car and the Model S is... not. I’m sure there will be a bit of cross shopping but the S is a fundamentally different product on the cusp of a refresh.

They can both live together in the market in harmony without stepping on each other’s toes.

Here’s a pic of a Taycan between a BMW i3 and a Chevy Bolt.

View attachment 416268

LOL why does it have exhausts? Sigh...
Lemme guess it will also make the fake engine noise like the i8 as well?

 

[Cheburashka]

LOL why does it have exhausts? Sigh...
Lemme guess it will also make the fake engine noise like the i8 as well?

It's not the Taycan - it's a test mule with exhausts so that people think it's an ICE Porsche.

Most things said in this thread about the Taycan are speculation until we see the real thing.

 

[robg]

Not sure why everyone keeps saying that the Taycan has no viable L3 charging network. VW is building out an L3 network through its "Electrify America" diesel-gate penance project. Plus the Taycan will be about charge at higher speeds (up to 350KW if recall correctly).

 

[SO16]

Plus the Taycan will be about charge at higher speeds (up to 350KW if recall correctly).

Will be interesting to see how the battery holds up.

 

[Naekuh]

Will be interesting to see how the battery holds up.

it probably wont.
Porsche in no way will offer a luxurous warrenty in the battery or drive train tesla does.

It will cost you a lot to fix, but hey, you wont need to months for it to come in, but instead a at the most a couple of weeks.

 

[VQTRVA]

The raven looks nothing like that.

Infact it looks almost the same as my current 2018 model S.

When will we see these upgrades?
Will it be in time when FSD actually comes out?



We already know how Raven looks like.
Knowing Tesla we wont see a real refresh until the raven market is completely dry, infact Tesla does not have the funds to impliment an all new design as they are trying to ramp up Model Y.
Even before that there will be a "raven" update of the Model X.
And then the roadster will probably start a new can of worms.

If your hoping for that render, then have fun, i think your better off waiting for the big one to hit california and make Nevada into the new west coast.

That picture he linked is pure speculation and artest rendering.
Infact when has almost anything which was rendered actually brought into production?
Even the original Model S renders were not how the final production ended up.

That picture above is just another hope like how this was the "wishful" next gen model S interior... which obviously wont be.

We know tesla is going minimalist on there designs now.
Look at the roadster.
All those blings on both the exterior and interior.... wishful thinking...



LOL why does it have exhausts? Sigh...
Lemme guess it will also make the fake engine noise like the i8 as well?

It's dark out.

 

[SO16]

you wont need to months for it to come in, but instead a at the most a couple of weeks.

I will also be curious to know if this holds true with their EVs.

 

[Naekuh]

It's dark out.

lol..

"baby its cold outside" ...
Or at least thats what i have learned when it comes to Tesla and Elon time...

I will also be curious to know if this holds true with their EVs.

Im pretty sure VW Group wont do something stupid on the logistic end like what Tesla does in not having sufficient parts.

The worst i saw it was on my friends Audi which required 17 days for a part to come in.
Unless someone else can chime in?