TCO Honda Odyssey vs. Model X over 300,000 miles

[andrewdtran]

We're getting ready to take delivery of our 2021 LR+ Model X with 7 seats. We've used Honda Odysseys for the past 18 years. In those 18 years and over 440,000 miles, we've gone through five Odysseys. To justify such a big initial sticker price, I made the table below to help our family contextualize owning the world's most advanced vehicle. While such figures below may be estimates, I think they're true to cost. Some information to note: the figures below only apply to Texas since that's where we live.

We travel about 40,000 miles a year and our Honda Odysseys always break down after 100,000 miles. So, the "price + options" section accounts for the purchase of 3 Honda Odysseys over an 8 year period.

After an estimated 8 year period, the Model X not only retains its value longer, we won't have to drive because of Full Self Driving, and we'll save ~$32,458 over its lifetime.

 

[Sonus]

your numbers are not like what I had when i looked into the model X, first (for me) insurance for model x is 2.5 times the cost of the Odyssey, registration fees are triple the cost of the Odyssey {at least in California}
I don't know how you got to the 6K$ to maintenance the model X but out of warranty repairs for the X will be way, way higher. Look at youtube videos of others and you get an idea.

the Odyssey will be cheaper in the long run for sure but the Model X has the ride, power, and feel the Odyssey will never have. It is also better for the planet.
So if you only care about money I would stick with the Odyssey.

 

[CapeOne]

I think your "maintenance" number is going to be a lot higher on the Tesla than you think. If you're driving 40k miles/year, you will already be out of the limited warranty in about 15 months (assuming you don't purchase an ESA) and out of battery/drive unit warranty in less than 4 years.

I also think you may be disappointed by the Tesla resale value in 8 years but at 300k+ miles, resale won't be that great with any car. The difference here is, you'd be starting with a much more expensive car which would therefore have a lot more value to lose.

From a strictly financial standpoint, I'd say the Odyssey(s) would still be the better choice.

 

[andrewdtran]

your numbers are not like what I had when i looked into the model X, first (for me) insurance for model x is 2.5 times the cost of the Odyssey, registration fees are triple the cost of the Odyssey {at least in California}
I don't know how you got to the 6K$ to maintenance the model X but out of warranty repairs for the X will be way, way higher. Look at youtube videos of others and you get an idea.

the Odyssey will be cheaper in the long run for sure but the Model X has the ride, power, and feel the Odyssey will never have. It is also better for the planet.
So if you only care about money I would stick with the Odyssey.

With those calculations, I'm including purchasing 3 Odysseys total over a span of 8 years. We're switching to electric anyways so I think the Model X is the best choice

And also, insurance here in Texas is about the same or cheaper for the Model X vs the Odyssey

 

[andrewdtran]

I think your "maintenance" number is going to be a lot higher on the Tesla than you think. If you're driving 40k miles/year, you will already be out of the limited warranty in about 15 months (assuming you don't purchase an ESA) and out of battery/drive unit warranty in less than 4 years.

I also think you may be disappointed by the Tesla resale value in 8 years but at 300k+ miles, resale won't be that great with any car. The difference here is, you'd be starting with a much more expensive car which would therefore have a lot more value to lose.

From a strictly financial standpoint, I'd say the Odyssey(s) would still be the better choice.

Yeah I think the last thing we're thinking about is resale value after 8 years . I think we'll definitely get the ESA but I honestly don't think we'll be keeping the Model X for 8 years

 

[CapeOne]

Yeah I think the last thing we're thinking about is resale value after 8 years . I think we'll definitely get the ESA but I honestly don't think we'll be keeping the Model X for 8 years

It is still an important financial factor, though. Three 2 1/2 year old Odysseys each with 100k miles sold/traded over 8 years will likely have notably better collective resales than an 8 year old MX with 300k miles.

Given that you are going electric regardless, you may want to consider a used (built before 2020) MX with an unlimited mileage battery/drive unit warranty. You'd could still get an ESA on the 4/50 limited warranty but at least the battery/drive unit would be covered for more years thanks to no mileage restrictions. Not to mention, used would be cheaper to start which could also take some of the sting out of the resale drop.

 

[cusetownusa]

Are you assuming the Odyssey will be worthless after 100k miles? You should be able to get at least double that with no problem.

Also, not sure how true this is, but based on what I read here and the consumer reports on the model X, the model x isn't the most reliable car. I would expect a lot of costs out of warranty over 300k miles.

I am in need of a 3 row vehicle also and have been trying to justify the purchase myself. But no matter how I look at it the Model X comes out way more expensive compared to other 3 row vehicles similarly equipped. (obviously not EVs though).

Does anyone know why a 3 row Model X costs so much more than the Model Y. Usually the jump from say a small SUV to a Midsize 3 row SUV from other manufacturers aren't that big. The AWD Model Y is about $40k cheaper (not including taxes) than the 3 row Model X.

 

[jboy210]

I am not sure it is an appropriate comparison. You are comparing basic transportation to a luxury high-performance vehicle. Akin to comparing a Honda accord to a Porsche Caymen. A set of tires will run you upwards of $1600 for the X. Versus, shopping around and get a set for $500 for the Honda. Also, the heavy X will go through this set in 30,000 miles or so.

The best way to think of the X is as Elon does. As a Faberge Egg. Somewhat fragile and expensive. Thinking this way leads to a lot less disappointment and angst.

 

[Les236]

I had 40,000 miles on my OEM tires before one front and one rear went out of round with still plenty of tread depth. Would have been able to go at least 50,000 on them. I was able to get some warranty out of them, and the set of 4 without the warranty wasn't going to be that much over $1,000. Lucky me, I haven't had any out of warranty work done, yet. Knock on wood. I have towed a u-haul 500 miles and only issue there was having to disconnect the trailer at one or two of the chargers as only back in was available. Most of my miles were highway, and really would like to have the longer range of the 2020/2021. I use the third row sometimes with small adults or children, but don't expect much more than that. I love my 6 seat configuration so I can have an ice chest in between the middle seats, but at the same time wish they were fold flat seats like the 5/7 seater. As someone suggested, you might look for a used Model X that has some of the initial price reduced. My local Tesla shop gets a lot in off lease.

 

[jboy210]

I had 40,000 miles on my OEM tires before one front and one rear went out of round with still plenty of tread depth. Would have been able to go at least 50,000 on them. I was able to get some warranty out of them, and the set of 4 without the warranty wasn't going to be that much over $1,000. Lucky me, I haven't had any out of warranty work done, yet. Knock on wood. I have towed a u-haul 500 miles and only issue there was having to disconnect the trailer at one or two of the chargers as only back in was available. Most of my miles were highway, and really would like to have the longer range of the 2020/2021. I use the third row sometimes with small adults or children, but don't expect much more than that. I love my 6 seat configuration so I can have an ice chest in between the middle seats, but at the same time wish they were fold flat seats like the 5/7 seater. As someone suggested, you might look for a used Model X that has some of the initial price reduced. My local Tesla shop gets a lot in off lease.

Local guys charged me $410 for a replacement tire. It was the best I could do shopping around for an afternoon on the internet. Tire was punctured at 16,000 miles.

 

[EVortex]

Thanks for considering an EV over ICE.

 

[CapeOne]

Does anyone know why a 3 row Model X costs so much more than the Model Y. Usually the jump from say a small SUV to a Midsize 3 row SUV from other manufacturers aren't that big. The AWD Model Y is about $40k cheaper (not including taxes) than the 3 row Model X.

The price difference doesn't have to be $40k. A three row (7 seat) MX LR+ is $33,500 more than a 5 seat MY LR. Without the third row seating, the price difference is $30k.

The MX is generally considered a more upscale, sophisticated, better riding car than the MY. The MX also has more cargo room and a greater towing capacity. It gets more range, has a higher top speed, and quicker 0-60 time. Whether or not these or other differences are worth the extra money depends on the buyer.

 

[Sonus]

Does anyone know why a 3 row Model X costs so much more than the Model Y. Usually the jump from say a small SUV to a Midsize 3 row SUV from other manufacturers aren't that big. The AWD Model Y is about $40k cheaper (not including taxes) than the 3 row Model X.

Think about it as moving from a Toyota to a Lexus or Honda to Acura. The X is just better than the Y. Regardless of the size.

 

[andrewdtran]

Are you assuming the Odyssey will be worthless after 100k miles? You should be able to get at least double that with no problem.

Also, not sure how true this is, but based on what I read here and the consumer reports on the model X, the model x isn't the most reliable car. I would expect a lot of costs out of warranty over 300k miles.

I am in need of a 3 row vehicle also and have been trying to justify the purchase myself. But no matter how I look at it the Model X comes out way more expensive compared to other 3 row vehicles similarly equipped. (obviously not EVs though).

Does anyone know why a 3 row Model X costs so much more than the Model Y. Usually the jump from say a small SUV to a Midsize 3 row SUV from other manufacturers aren't that big. The AWD Model Y is about $40k cheaper (not including taxes) than the 3 row Model X.

We drive at least 35k miles per year on our odyssey and what we've noticed is after around 95k miles, the transmission begins to fail. Our local dealership quotes us around $6,000 to replace the transmission for a vehicle valued around $15,000. So we just end up trading it in an upgrading to the latest Odyssey. With the Model X, air suspension and Full Self Driving are so important because the majority of those miles on our Odyssey are from roadtrips.

 

[andrewdtran]

It is still an important financial factor, though. Three 2 1/2 year old Odysseys each with 100k miles sold/traded over 8 years will likely have notably better collective resales than an 8 year old MX with 300k miles.

Given that you are going electric regardless, you may want to consider a used (built before 2020) MX with an unlimited mileage battery/drive unit warranty. You'd could still get an ESA on the 4/50 limited warranty but at least the battery/drive unit would be covered for more years thanks to no mileage restrictions. Not to mention, used would be cheaper to start which could also take some of the sting out of the resale drop.

We were looking at getting a used Model X because of the unlimited mileage battery/drive unit warranty but, with the lack of V3 supercharging, the additional time added to roadtrips becomes a bit inconvenient. We rented a 2020 Model X for a 3,000 mile road trip and using the V3 superchargers felt just like a regular gas station stop. Hopefully, when Tesla replaces existing superchargers with V3, trip times can be closer to those using an ICE vehicle.

 

[andrewdtran]

I am not sure it is an appropriate comparison. You are comparing basic transportation to a luxury high-performance vehicle. Akin to comparing a Honda accord to a Porsche Caymen. A set of tires will run you upwards of $1600 for the X. Versus, shopping around and get a set for $500 for the Honda. Also, the heavy X will go through this set in 30,000 miles or so.

The best way to think of the X is as Elon does. As a Faberge Egg. Somewhat fragile and expensive. Thinking this way leads to a lot less disappointment and angst.

Thanks for bringing that up, I completely forgot about the cost for a set of tires, however, I guess that cost does come with purchasing Tesla's, in my opinion, best vehicle . The falcon-wing doors do make it worth it.

I ordered the 20" wheels vs the 22", do you think that impacts the tire's wear and tear?

 

[JoshV]

We drive at least 35k miles per year on our odyssey and what we've noticed is after around 95k miles, the transmission begins to fail. Our local dealership quotes us around $6,000 to replace the transmission for a vehicle valued around $15,000. So we just end up trading it in an upgrading to the latest Odyssey. With the Model X, air suspension and Full Self Driving are so important because the majority of those miles on our Odyssey are from roadtrips.

I’m not sure why you keep going back to Honda. After the 1st Odyssey you should’ve next bought a Toyota Sienna. It’s a lot more reliable and easily goes over 100k mi.

 

[JoshV]

By the way my wife drives the Sienna and I drive the Model X. It’s my favorite vehicle ever! I know it’s not cheap and tires won’t be neither but it’s not a standard car and shouldn’t even be considered as one.

 

[ek993]

I am not sure it is an appropriate comparison. You are comparing basic transportation to a luxury high-performance vehicle. Akin to comparing a Honda accord to a Porsche Caymen. A set of tires will run you upwards of $1600 for the X. Versus, shopping around and get a set for $500 for the Honda. Also, the heavy X will go through this set in 30,000 miles or so.

The best way to think of the X is as Elon does. As a Faberge Egg. Somewhat fragile and expensive. Thinking this way leads to a lot less disappointment and angst.

The X is an amazing technological achievement and the future of transportation (EV’s), I would never in a million years call it a luxury vehicle though, in fact quite the opposite.

 

[andrewdtran]

By the way my wife drives the Sienna and I drive the Model X. It’s my favorite vehicle ever! I know it’s not cheap and tires won’t be neither but it’s not a standard car and shouldn’t even be considered as one.

For sure! It's definitely not a normal vehicle but for the value of FSD and the falcon wing doors alone, it's absolutely worth it.