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Technical question re Bluetooth

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So you just need the right transceiver. In tests people have managed to read these from 50cm. Enough if you leave your card by the front door or someone walking past you in the street carrying the right kit.

I’m not saying this is happening today. But it is possible.

1st Google Hit :https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08143.pdf
It's possible, but the short range makes it a very unlikely route. It would presumably firstly need to be a relay attack as newer NFC cards are pretty resistant to cloning or replay type attacks. This is based on the assumption they are using decent NFC cards that are properly encrypted. I've not seen any news of cards being cloned, so I believe this to be the case. Edit: Have confirmed it is quite advanced with an applet running on the actual card with pretty strong cryptography, no sign of a card being cloned yet.

Also if 50cm is in free air, then through a brick wall on a house would probably immediately put it out of range. Theoretically if it's in a bag or coat hanging on the door a relay attack might work. This would be up to security researchers significantly more knowledgeable than me to test. Tesla do have a decent bug bounty program which has recently found a vulnerability in the X key which is currently being patched out so I assume plenty of people (legitimate or otherwise) are trying these other potential obvious attacks. Fwiw, Fords and Range Rovers are stolen much more frequently here, I can't remember the last time I saw a report of a Tesla being stolen.
 
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I don't see how it would be a profitable attack vector - it relies on the owner using the key card, the card being in a coat pocket very close to the door, that being the only card in that coat pocket, and nobody noticing someone turning up with a fairly high power transmitter. And no pin to drive..

The hit rate on something like that would be tiny, so I don't think the average thief is going to bother. They'll go for easier targets.