On a serious note, thanks for all contributing to this thread. If I was suffering alone, wondering why Tesla was "picking" on me, and only me, I'd be certifiably crazy by now. It's good to know others are in the same boat, as Schadenfreudian as that is.
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Tesla’s FSD Beta 10.3 Coming This Friday 10-22-2021
- Thread starter Khashoggi
- Start date
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
None required, it's very simple.
No, it's not.
HW3 is not capable of redundant operation for example, because the compute requirements turned out to be too high compared to what they thought it would be, so it can't deliver L4 driving safely.
Everything else in your logic falls apart after that and we're back to a very simple premise.
Everyone who needs any HW upgrade to get the features promised when they bought FSD will get those upgrades, which Tesla promised back in the days, and has kept up with ever since.
That will include stuff past HW3 since HW3 is insufficient.
The only place there's any complexity at all is in the argument that people who bought FSD got a different promised "feature complete" definition pre and post March 2019.
If you buy that theory then it's possible the pre 3/19 FSD buyers get further-out HW upgrades than the post 3/19 buyers, but that remains TBD.
Indeed.
That may or may not turn out to be true. We don't know for sure if HW3 is incapable of redundant operation. Or even if it is not capable today, that is no guarantee that they can't figure out how to make it capable in the future.
But overall, I think you are probably right that L4 will require hardware HW4 and probably Dojo as well.
I finally got my score back to 99 yesterday after losing 2 points last week for a single collision warning.
I think the problem is that too many people have gotten their scores back up to 99 now, while Tesla still wants to limit the rollout. It's because people aren't driving normally while they are observing their safety score; they're gaming the system (by driving extra miles along "safe routes" they don't usually take), or rebooting the computer after a collision warning, etc. So the safety score alone is no longer a reliable indicator of risk. It doesn't indicate how safely people drive, it indicates how effectively they play the "game."
For each point the threshold is lowered, the duration will increase. I seriously doubt 10.3 is actually coming to cars with 99/100; it might be version 10.4 or 10.5 that finally comes to cars with 99, and not until November. Then cars with 98 will get it another 3-4 months beyond that, or the rollout might pause for an undetermined amount of time, or some other factor will be introduced along with safety score in order to restrict the rollout.
I think the problem is that too many people have gotten their scores back up to 99 now, while Tesla still wants to limit the rollout. It's because people aren't driving normally while they are observing their safety score; they're gaming the system (by driving extra miles along "safe routes" they don't usually take), or rebooting the computer after a collision warning, etc. So the safety score alone is no longer a reliable indicator of risk. It doesn't indicate how safely people drive, it indicates how effectively they play the "game."
For each point the threshold is lowered, the duration will increase. I seriously doubt 10.3 is actually coming to cars with 99/100; it might be version 10.4 or 10.5 that finally comes to cars with 99, and not until November. Then cars with 98 will get it another 3-4 months beyond that, or the rollout might pause for an undetermined amount of time, or some other factor will be introduced along with safety score in order to restrict the rollout.
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10.3 didn’t get released to anyone yet (whether you previously had FSD beta or not). Everyone chill. It’s coming.
I have observed that while AP disguises everything, using the earlier FSD 9 release can really reduce your safety score. Twice, my Model 3 issued a forward collision warning for no reason. Got a 92 on that drive and really had to work my score up. Finally got it back up to 98 so I'm still in line. I have disabled all FSD beta options to get my score back up. Advise newcomers to do the same.
Davidwesty68
Tesla Model 3 owner
I have had a score of 99 for a few weeks now. I had a 100 until someone pulled in front of me and I had to slam on the brakes.
I have not received the 10.3 Beta and also my score still shows 99. Last time the 100 score drivers got 10.2 their scores were locked and could not be accessed. I am assuming 10.3 has been delayed and hopefully we will get a time line as to how long.
One thing Tesla may be running into is the NTSA not wanting a wide release of the Beta. The politics against Tesla from the Biden Administration has been very disappointing and I am wondering if this has played a roll in the delay. Only time will tell but I hope an update will be released soon. I bought FSD 2.5 years ago and am excited about finally getting it even if it is in a Beta release
I have not received the 10.3 Beta and also my score still shows 99. Last time the 100 score drivers got 10.2 their scores were locked and could not be accessed. I am assuming 10.3 has been delayed and hopefully we will get a time line as to how long.
One thing Tesla may be running into is the NTSA not wanting a wide release of the Beta. The politics against Tesla from the Biden Administration has been very disappointing and I am wondering if this has played a roll in the delay. Only time will tell but I hope an update will be released soon. I bought FSD 2.5 years ago and am excited about finally getting it even if it is in a Beta release
Davidwesty68
Tesla Model 3 owner
I have had a score of 99 for a few weeks now. I had a 100 until someone pulled in front of me and I had to slam on the brakes.
I have not received the 10.3 Beta and also my score still shows 99. Last time the 100 score drivers got 10.2 their scores were locked and could not be accessed. I am assuming 10.3 has been delayed and hopefully we will get a time line as to how long.
One thing Tesla may be running into is the NTSA not wanting a wide release of the Beta. The politics against Tesla from the Biden Administration has been very disappointing and I am wondering if this has played a roll in the delay. Only time will tell but I hope an update will be released soon. I bought FSD 2.5 years ago and am excited about finally getting it even if it is in a Beta release
I have not received the 10.3 Beta and also my score still shows 99. Last time the 100 score drivers got 10.2 their scores were locked and could not be accessed. I am assuming 10.3 has been delayed and hopefully we will get a time line as to how long.
One thing Tesla may be running into is the NTSA not wanting a wide release of the Beta. The politics against Tesla from the Biden Administration has been very disappointing and I am wondering if this has played a roll in the delay. Only time will tell but I hope an update will be released soon. I bought FSD 2.5 years ago and am excited about finally getting it even if it is in a Beta release
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Well, we know it's not capable TODAY because the current code needs to borrow significant compute from node B to run at all.
I know a few people think Tesla can somehow magically add a bunch more, better, capabilities (which from the current beta it clearly still needs) yet somehow drastically reduce the compute needed to do it... but when you ask how they just waive their hands and say optimization.... which seems like pretty magical thinking to me.
Tesla thought HW2 had enough compute for L4. Then they thought 2.5 did. Then they thought 3 did. Ultimately until they actually solve it, they don't know how much compute they need. It's possible even HW4 isn't enough, but we have no real info on that at all. We do have a fair bit on 3 and the vast preponderance of evidence is that it's insufficient.
The ideal case for Tesla is if they can get "perfect" L2 out of HW3 using both nodes... because we know HW4 is about 3x the compute, so that would mean they could run the "perfect" code in a single node with room to spare on HW4 and that could then support L4 since it could run redundant code on both nodes. But again from the current state of the beta, they're not there yet.[/B]
Battouttahe77
Member
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