Tesla’s Production outlook for Q2 ??

[dhanson865]

But these companies had years to develop their dealer networks. Tesla won't let their delivery centers sit idle with nothing to do and find a place to store these cars.

They don't have to have delivery centers sit idle, they can deliver ~20,000 cars to US customers during the next 2.x months.

It's the excess that has to be on trucks, ships, or in a lot, or going across the border to Canada. Nothing about that excess stops them from using delivery centers in the mean time.

And there is an entire industry of 3rd party shipping and storage companies. If Tesla doesn't haven an arrangement that covers this I'd be surprised.

either way either A. Tesla has enough infrastructure to do this already. B. Tesla will have enough infrastructure to do this by end of May/start of June. or C. Tesla will pay third parties to ship, store, and deliver as needed (in addition to any A or B capacity).

It's not like Tesla hasn't been building it's own internal delivery network over the last 6 years. It just has a different structure than Fords.

 

[Moderatefan]

So, I got my invite to configure my Model 3 today!!!!! Non-owner, line waiter on 3/31 in Denver. I would really like the AWD, but do not want to loose $3750 AND pay $4-5K more for the car. So, I have read every entry on this thread. Here is what concerns me: There are thousands of people who got their configure emails before I did and decided to wait for AWD. So, just because AWD is released, doesn't mean my order will make it under the wire. I also worry that my RWD could get pushed back, if my order is placed after AWD is released. However, it snowed today and I had to drive 40 minutes downtown. (Sucked for Rockies home opener BTW). I thought, "I really want AWD". I don't want to mess with switching tires out 2x a year. But, this car is already stretching my budget.

Wondering how long I can wait to make my decision?

Do you realize that for downtown you don't need AWD? AWD does nothing for breaking, only helps on the hills and there are not many hills in the downtown. As far as waiting, if they really reach 5K/week in Q2, then I think they should be able to zip through all the people in front of you who are waiting a lot quicker than in the past... I would think maybe a month or max a quarter should fill their orders.So, if they are able to delay 200K till Q3, meaning full credit lasts thru Q4, I would think it is safe to wait for AWD until the end of Q3 with the hope to get it in Q4 or if they don't start selling it until Q4 then maybe buy RWD.
If they reach 200K in Q2, then you may not have as much time for waiting, again I'd order 3 months before the credit runs out, like at the start of Q3.

I'm sorta in a similar boat, except my estimate is May-July for RWD and late 2018 for AWD.
When I reserved on 4/1 I hoped to get something decent for $35K. When the prices for options came out, I realized the bare bones car won't do it and currently looking for $56K LR(w/o FSD,19" wheels), which with taxes etc. should be around $61K. Adding another $4-4.5K on top for AWD is pushing the whole thing into really uncomfortable price range.
I've read a bunch of topics that state RWD drives quite decent in the snow - b/c the car is heavy w/ weight in the center due to battery unlike RWD ICE trucks with weight of motor in the front, and immediate/precise torque control. Anyway. I am comfortable driving FWD in the snow with all season tires and it looks like Tesla RWD will drive better. If you drive a lot of snowy hills, then maybe you need to consider AWD.
I figure there might be 2-3 days in the season with 1-2 feet of snow and I can stay at home on those days in the worst case, so RWD should do.

 

[kengchang]

So, I got my invite to configure my Model 3 today!!!!! Non-owner, line waiter on 3/31 in Denver. I would really like the AWD, but do not want to loose $3750 AND pay $4-5K more for the car. So, I have read every entry on this thread. Here is what concerns me: There are thousands of people who got their configure emails before I did and decided to wait for AWD. So, just because AWD is released, doesn't mean my order will make it under the wire. I also worry that my RWD could get pushed back, if my order is placed after AWD is released. However, it snowed today and I had to drive 40 minutes downtown. (Sucked for Rockies home opener BTW). I thought, "I really want AWD". I don't want to mess with switching tires out 2x a year. But, this car is already stretching my budget.

Wondering how long I can wait to make my decision?

You will be fine if Tesla hits 200K in Q3, otherwise it's gonna be tough to get the full credit. I am in the same boat.

 

[adaptabl]

Do you realize that for downtown you don't need AWD? AWD does nothing for breaking, only helps on the hills and there are not many hills in the downtown. As far as waiting, if they really reach 5K/week in Q2, then I think they should be able to zip through all the people in front of you who are waiting a lot quicker than in the past... I would think maybe a month or max a quarter should fill their orders.So, if they are able to delay 200K till Q3, meaning full credit lasts thru Q4, I would think it is safe to wait for AWD until the end of Q3 with the hope to get it in Q4 or if they don't start selling it until Q4 then maybe buy RWD.
If they reach 200K in Q2, then you may not have as much time for waiting, again I'd order 3 months before the credit runs out, like at the start of Q3.

I'm sorta in a similar boat, except my estimate is May-July for RWD and late 2018 for AWD.
When I reserved on 4/1 I hoped to get something decent for $35K. When the prices for options came out, I realized the bare bones car won't do it and currently looking for $56K LR(w/o FSD,19" wheels), which with taxes etc. should be around $61K. Adding another $4-4.5K on top for AWD is pushing the whole thing into really uncomfortable price range.
I've read a bunch of topics that state RWD drives quite decent in the snow - b/c the car is heavy w/ weight in the center due to battery unlike RWD ICE trucks with weight of motor in the front, and immediate/precise torque control. Anyway. I am comfortable driving FWD in the snow with all season tires and it looks like Tesla RWD will drive better. If you drive a lot of snowy hills, then maybe you need to consider AWD.
I figure there might be 2-3 days in the season with 1-2 feet of snow and I can stay at home on those days in the worst case, so RWD should do.

FWD is far better in the snow than RWD. I drive a Charger RWD and I drove about 10 minutes in the snow before I knew I had to get snow tires. The weight distribution front to rear is about the same as a Tesla. In the snow AWD is almost a must have option for the Tesla. Even with snow tires my Charger is not as good as my wives FWD car with all season tires.

 

[Moderatefan]

FWD is far better in the snow than RWD. I drive a Charger RWD and I drove about 10 minutes in the snow before I knew I had to get snow tires. The weight distribution front to rear is about the same as a Tesla. In the snow AWD is almost a must have option for the Tesla. Even with snow tires my Charger is not as good as my wives FWD car with all season tires.

ICE FWD is better than ICE RWD. But we're comparing ICE FWD to EV RWD. Given the instant torque (no delay between pressing the gas pedal & fuel burned and drive shaft turning the wheels) plus traction control system limiting the maximum amount of torque that can be applied to each wheel without making it slip Tesla slows down automatically to a speed that results in no spinning wheels. From those videos I watched, seemed like a consistent and safe driving in the snow. I believe I saw others agree that it behaves better than FWD.

You need AWD for the snowy hills.

 

[AviP]

Snowy hills might be an overstatement, but simple 3% grades can get FWD/RWD bogged down under icy conditions. That's not much of a hill but more like an incline or sloping driveway.

 

[Moderatefan]

Snowy hills might be an overstatement, but simple 3% grades can get FWD/RWD bogged down under icy conditions. That's not much of a hill but more like an incline or sloping driveway.

I don't recall if I ever drove on ice, I prefer to stay home in those cases and in the snow I dont have issues with FWD.

 

[drawfour]

I don't recall if I ever drove on ice, I prefer to stay home in those cases and in the snow I dont have issues with FWD.

Heavy snow in a short period of time can turn into icy conditions as a bunch of vehicles all try the mad rush to get home. If you're lucky enough to be able to stay home because it *might* snow later, you're probably good. But that icy/slushy crap that happens when you're at work and suddenly realize it's coming down hard outside and you need to get home right away - that's the one that can take you off the road, or unable to get up the hill.

 

[DanL3]

With the rash of invitations last week, and even this Sunday, It looks like Tesla is not holding back.

However still no indication of hitting or approaching the 200k Tax credit limit. No sign of any mass shipments to Canada or anywhere else. In fact no indication of significantly increased shipments anywhere.

We have only one VIN at 20,000. We do not have an increase of registered VINs above the 28289 done on 4/6

So I am now changing my view of things to "unknown" and looking for the next set of data to tell us what is happening.

 

[drawfour]

So I am now changing my view of things to "unknown" and looking for the next set of data to tell us what is happening.

No. In the absence of data, you are required to wildly speculate. That's the way things work.

 

[DanL3]

So now we have data..... They shut down production!

First I am sure that Employees knew this was coming. I am sure it was planned. I expect this was the plan when they did the push that came at the end of Q1. Although they probably did not plan this exact date.

I expect there were several things that lead to this happening now.

First, Parts. There are always a few parts that are critical path for "assurance of supply". They probably were stocked up on the critical path parts after the Feb shut down and chose to build as fast as they could till those parts ran out.

Second, Repair. They came up after the Feb shut down with no cars needing repair. As they built more end more cars at a higher and higher rates, a certain percentage of cars fail the final tests and need to be evaluated and repaired. Eventually the need for repairs each day is higher than what can be managed real time. At that point they have to start stockpiling these repairs and eventually they have cars in need of repair stacked all over the place.

Third tool maintenance and line restructuring. As they work they see places to improve the line and problems that could be prevented with work on the line that cannot be done real time. They make a list of all of these and plan to do them all at once the next time the line is down.

Rest time for workers The workers have been busting their B.ts since Feb or March or at least since Elon started sleeping there. They need a break so that they do not burn out.

Finally Elon needs a shower.

They push as hard as they can as long as they can. They watch these items slowly build up. Then when the time is right they pull the plug and take what they learned and fix everything and then they start it over.

I expect we will see this again and again. It is just the normal plan for how they improve the production processes and volume.

 

[EinSV]

According to a leaked email from Elon to Tesla employees published on Electrek, Tesla built 2250 cars in the past week, and is targeting 3,000-4,000 per week production after this week's shutdown.

They are also targeting a capacity of 6000/week by the end of June to give a margin of error for 5K/week.

Starting today at Giga and tomorrow at Fremont, we will be stopping for three to five days to do a comprehensive set of upgrades. This should set us up for Model 3 production of 3000 to 4000 per week next month.

*******

Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June. Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th. Tesla Model 3 production aims for 6,000 units per week in June after upgrade in May – ~5,000 with margin of error, says Elon Musk​

 

[DanL3]

This should set us up for Model 3 production of 3000 to 4000 per week next month.

So Do you think 4000/week is enough for Elon to start throwing in some AWD or White seats???

Could they open up AWD for Canada but not for USA? That would help shipments to Canada.

 

[EinSV]

So Do you think 4000/week is enough for Elon to start throwing in some AWD or White seats???

Could they open up AWD for Canada but not for USA? That would help shipments to Canada.

Unfortunately, I don't think so. Elon was pretty clear that they would not open up AWD or white seats until after they hit 5K/week because they don't want to add complexity that could hold back the ramp up.

On the bright side, it does look like they are making good progress and have a reasonable plan to hit 5K per week and hopefully open up AWD sometime this summer.

 

[thx1139]

Why would they do anything at all like AWD or options on seats until they hit the 5000 units per week goal? Just silly to introduce any complexity until goal met.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Why would they do anything at all like AWD or options on seats until they hit the 5000 units per week goal? Just silly to introduce any complexity until goal met.

It would depend on what's holding them back from 5k/week. If it were battery packs it would make sense to start AWD production as it should be a more profitable configuration especially if they bundle it with other options like air suspension.
It's really looking to me like they're going to hit 200k total US sales this quarter... I hope AWD ships soon enough to get the full tax credit.

 

[FloridaJohn]

It's really looking to me like they're going to hit 200k total US sales this quarter...

I’m getting that feeling as well, although a week shutdown now and another one in May will help in moving the 200k date back. The increased production rate may negate that, though.

 

[Mo City]

It's really looking to me like they're going to hit 200k total US sales this quarter.

Call me an optimist but I think they plan to cross 200,000 very early July.

 

[DanL3]

Call me an Optimist too. I think Elon will find a way to game the system, he always has.

First, Tesla is first. No one has hit 200,000 before, There is no pressadant for this. The law has rules but they have never been interpreted. The law says Tesla needs to report the day. Then what? The Federal government has no real staff to dig into Tesla data and say it way 2 days earlier. In fact if Tesla says July 1 it would be months and months later before the government could get a team together and dig through the data and try to change it. To be honest, I expect if this came to be the case, I expect the government would say its not worth the effort and let it go.

So Elon can define the rules within what the law states. He can postpone deliveries. He probably even could find a way to lend people there own cars on trial and then have the official delivery date be July 1. Cars are already being stockpiled. Tesla has lots of possibilities and I think they will figure out how to make it Q3.

So all of that means the the slow down we are starting to see now will continue and may even get much worse.

 

[Moderatefan]

So Elon can define the rules within what the law states. He can postpone deliveries.

Seems the ramp will go much faster than in the past. 3-4K/week in May and up to 6K/week in June, I think this will be a lot of headache to postpone the delivery of this kind of quantity of cars. And I do not believe Elon will be lying about the date of 200K. So, with the latest news 200K in May is very likely.