If there is only around 20k left, it will be very hard to hold off hitting that number. If you figure 10k MS/MX that you have to deliver if ordered in the USA, that leaves only 10k M3 in the USA. Assuming that Tesla makes around 25k M3's in Q2 than you would have to defer 15k. That is probably more than what was ordered in Canada(without AWD), you could start sending some to Europe for current owners, or you could literally have thousands staged at delivery centers around the country and make July 1st, the biggest delivery day in Tesla history?
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Tesla’s Production outlook for Q2 ??
- Thread starter DanL3
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That's what I figured pretty much to a thousand w/o doing the calc.
Around 10K S/X in Q2 and 10K M3s. They need to send excess M3s to Canada etc. if they are to help more people to maximize effect of the tax credit. There's also a chance they are just helping Canadians to get their $14k credit before their June elections cause it to be discontinued... but in this case they will hit 200K U.S. sales close to the quarter end, which does not make much sense.
In other words, I think people need to curb their expectations that they will get their M3s quicker due to the output growth... I believe the total U.S. deliveries in Q2 will be pretty much the same as Q1. So, be patient - flood gates open in Q3.
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Chris350
Member
Thee are also many cancelations as the car is not what many expected. If you want a LR model 3 with the option pac you will be much higher on the list than what you think.
Chris350
Member
That's until the AWD comes online.... Once that happens.... Those in line for the RWD will have to wait.... Can't produce 5k RWD a week if the AWD car is also being produced.... I'm in for the RWD and currently have the Jul-Sep window.... I doubt I will be seeing that once the get flooded with the differed group chomping at the bit for the AWD.
So do you think that Tesla might open up the configuration of AWD during Q2 with the statement that AWD will not be delivered until later in Q3. Then work to figure out how to roll the line to AWD and back to RWD during Q2 when they are OK to shut the line down for days at a time.
Then they can burst high volume deliveries of RWD July 1 and follow with high volume deliveries of AWD after that.
In my original post, I stated...
I think the today's "lost VINs" is because Tesla found a problem in cars produced and rejected during the end of Q1 push. These were cars that had been assigned to customers and they have now decided that the problem can not be corrected in time to make the delivery. So they have pulled back those VINs and will assign new VINs and make new cars for those customers.
They need time to fully understand the root cause of this and implement permanent fixes to the problem. This type of correcting action is an indication that production will slow down in April and maybe May while they implement fixes as I had stated in my original post.
The key here is to get it right so that when they need full production for July deliveries they will be able to do it right the first time and not have these kind of undeliverable cars coming off of the line.
I think the today's "lost VINs" is because Tesla found a problem in cars produced and rejected during the end of Q1 push. These were cars that had been assigned to customers and they have now decided that the problem can not be corrected in time to make the delivery. So they have pulled back those VINs and will assign new VINs and make new cars for those customers.
They need time to fully understand the root cause of this and implement permanent fixes to the problem. This type of correcting action is an indication that production will slow down in April and maybe May while they implement fixes as I had stated in my original post.
The key here is to get it right so that when they need full production for July deliveries they will be able to do it right the first time and not have these kind of undeliverable cars coming off of the line.
That is really good news for people like me, assuming they get the AWD according to their estimates. Cause right now, I'm showing AWD as late 2018, and if they can hold off on hitting 200k until Jul 1, then I'm good.
FloridaJohn
Member
I feel that they are going to increase the number of cars produced as quick as possible and I think they are probably going to hit the 200k mark sometime in May/June. After three quarters of missed production targets, I just don’t see them sandbagging until July 1. That will unfortunately mean the full credit will run out at the end of September.
If they just maintain the current rate of production that is 24k Model 3s. Add in Model X and S numbers, and I just don’t see how they can export enough to hold off the 200k mark to Q3. If they ramp to the promised 5k/week, they are going to hit that number even sooner.
If they just maintain the current rate of production that is 24k Model 3s. Add in Model X and S numbers, and I just don’t see how they can export enough to hold off the 200k mark to Q3. If they ramp to the promised 5k/week, they are going to hit that number even sooner.
I don't think it's sandbagging until July 1.
The timing of opening up reservations for Canadians for Q2 deliveries indicates to me they are trying to maximize deliveries but siphoning off cars to Canada in Q2 to delay the 200,000th US delivery until July 1. That's the only logical explanation for opening up invitations to Canada at this time.
The timing of opening up reservations for Canadians for Q2 deliveries indicates to me they are trying to maximize deliveries but siphoning off cars to Canada in Q2 to delay the 200,000th US delivery until July 1. That's the only logical explanation for opening up invitations to Canada at this time.
FloridaJohn
Member
How many Canadian reservations are there? Enough to make a difference?
I thought Tesla was diverting deliveries to Canada because they have a rebate of some sort ending in July.
I think Tesla could do the right thing by doing some good quality control and using Q2 to make cars, some deliveries, ensure improvements in quality and continue to ramp up production. Do another burst at the end of June and hold off delivering them until July. What’s one more missed quarter if they can knock it out of the park for the second half of the year?
If they can figure out how to deliver 10,000 model 3s and 5000 each of the S and X in the US that allows about 10,000 or more cars to go to Canada and they still have a decent quarter.
Ramp it up to 4000/wk in early Q3 and 5,000 by Q4 and you’re looking at 117,000 model 3s in the second half of the year after only 30,000 or so in the first half. Would show huge growth and have them be close to 200,000 deliveries for the year...double last year. That would be a win in my book (aside from me still being months away from a 3 if that’s how it plays out).
Ramp it up to 4000/wk in early Q3 and 5,000 by Q4 and you’re looking at 117,000 model 3s in the second half of the year after only 30,000 or so in the first half. Would show huge growth and have them be close to 200,000 deliveries for the year...double last year. That would be a win in my book (aside from me still being months away from a 3 if that’s how it plays out).
I think they are trying to kill both birds with one stone - help Canadians get their credit, which may go away after June elections
Are Ontario EV Credits Ending?
and also reduce U.S. sales to below 200K level in Q2. Not sure how many orders are there in Canada and how many would go for RWD vs preferred AWD (it seems the consensus is that RWD with winter tires is fine in snow).
Tesla might need to siphon off somewhere between 10-20K M3s. They might try to just stage many of them on SC's parking lots for July 1, so they all count as "in transit", but I'm not sure how many they can store that way. Space has a tendency to be limited.
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FloridaJohn
Member
That scenario would require them to have a fully functional assembly line without any way to test it until the end of the quarter. I am skeptical that they can go from 2k/week to 5k/week without an intervening ramp. As much as I would like to see them hit car number 200k in July, I just don’t see how it can happen unless they dramatically curtail Model 3 production. If they are planning to export to Europe, they need to open the configurator pretty quick to be able to deliver this quarter. Boats don’t travel too fast.
Yeah I think their delivery number for Q2 is not going to be much higher than Q1 honestly. Production could be a different story though.
Yes, I fully agree with your statement.
Right now I see no new invites. I am afraid that points to not ramping up deliveries. It is apparent to me that we have a lot of risk that Tesla will have greater problems getting through Q2.
We will just have to watch and see what happens.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
The 200,000 limit is sold/delivered/registered to a new owner not produced. They can produce all they want in the quarter if they ship it across the country and don't deliver to the customer until July 1st or 2nd (the 1st is a Sunday).
Deliver to US and Canad all through the quarter, ramp up production to max at the beginning of June and ship anything that comes out in June to the east coast, back fill towards the west coast as the month progresses. Deliver near the factory in July.
It's not that hard to stockpile a few thousand extra cars, and it's even easier to ship them.
It's like people think cars can be delivered overnight anywhere in the world from Fremont to your city faster than Santa can do it. Or maybe they think Santa works for Tesla now.
I guarantee you a June 15th build isn't traveling from Fremont to Orlando and being delivered before July 2nd if Tesla has any concern about the 200,000 number at all.
I thought Elon and Santa were one and the same?
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