Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register
  • The final cut of the 9th episode of the Tesla Motors Club Podcast, featuring Chad Schwitters, the former president of Plug In America, is now available. You can watch it now on YouTube or listen to it on all major podcast networks.

Tesla A Year Or More Away From Volume Production Of 4680 Cells

TMC Staff

.
Moderator
May 19, 2017
1,795
573
12 months if not 18 months away, according to Tesla’s Elon Musk.



Tesla was silent about the progress on its next-generation 4680 cylindrical battery cells, announced at Battery Day in September 2020, in the Q1 2021 report and there is a reason for that.



It appears that bringing those cells into the market in volume is very challenging and might happen later than expected.



Tesla has a “small” pilot plant for the 4680 cells that is envisioned to produce 10 GWh per year (which is actually a lot), but Tesla’s Elon Musk explained during the first-quarter earnings call (via Teslarati), they are not there yet.



Actually, Tesla is not ready to move from the R&D/pilot stage to the volume production of those new cells. Elon Musk explains that the cells are not yet reliable enough to be put in cars...

Continue reading...


 
  • Informative
Reactions: oreobbq
So this confuses me. I'm under the understanding that Model Y's built in Germany and Austin will be structural battery pack Model Y's...

If 4680's are a year away, then why does Tesla say both plants will start pumping out Model Y's this year, 2021, instead of 2022?

I'm guessing they have a plan B for new MY production using the current cells. Seems like both the new cells and the new pack would be slow to reach volume production
 
  • Like
Reactions: HumanInput

orion2001

Member
Apr 14, 2021
395
1,010
NC
If I had to guess, I'd say the Model 3/Y aren't going to see 4680 cells for at least another 2 years or so. Tesla already has an advantage with batteries/efficiency with their existing cars. There isn't any big upside to forcing the issue with 4680 cells on their high-volume M3/Y lines if they end up having teething issues and end up needing recalls or expensive fixes at SCs down the line. I suspect they will trial the 4680 cells earlier on their lower-volume product lines like the S Plaid+ and use that to help solve any initial teething issues. It will also give them time to ramp up manufacturing of 4680s and sort out production issues.

That's setting aside the fact that the entire 12-18 month timeline could easily end up being pushed back further. AFAICT, it isn't clear at all if there is any proof yet that anyone can produce these cells at a reasonable scale while ensuring the required reliability for use in cars. Even the Panasonic folks were very cautious in their initial statements about partnering to look into production of the 4680 cells and how they would require extreme levels of precision and quality control.

I really hope they manage to make it work, but at this point, personally, I don't think it makes sense to sit on the fence waiting for 4680 cells and structural battery packs anytime too soon. Clearly they have alternate plans to produce the Model Y at Austin and Berlin using the current battery packs, otherwise this news about the 4680 cells would tank their plans with those factories.
 
Last edited:
"it isn't clear at all if there is any proof yet that anyone can produce these cells at a reasonable scale while ensuring the required reliability for use in cars."

And yet ELon announced it as a very specific thing, accomplished and ready to go. To which Tesla's longstanding Panasonic partner said "say what?" Elon is beyond apirational in virtually everything he says these days. No CEO can survive long term in that mode.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HumanInput
"it isn't clear at all if there is any proof yet that anyone can produce these cells at a reasonable scale while ensuring the required reliability for use in cars."

And yet ELon announced it as a very specific thing, accomplished and ready to go. To which Tesla's longstanding Panasonic partner said "say what?" Elon is beyond apirational in virtually everything he says these days. No CEO can survive long term in that mode.

And yet he is the longest tenured CEO of any major automaker globally.

Better to shoot for Mars and only make it to the moon than not have tried at all.

Tesla already makes the world’s best cars, what more do you want?
 
And this is why I will buy a Rivian instead of a Cybertruck. All Rivian has to do is deliver on time and they will sell thousands of them.
I completely understand and honestly, I'm leaning towards that way as well. The problem is I haven't reserved a Rivian and I hear they have between 50-70,000 reservations, so chances are I wouldn't get one until the CT was well under production (wishful timeline, I know). Also, I just read that the Rivian only has a bed that's 4.5 feet long or so -- that seems really short for what I'd want a truck for. :/
 

orion2001

Member
Apr 14, 2021
395
1,010
NC
And this is why I will buy a Rivian instead of a Cybertruck. All Rivian has to do is deliver on time and they will sell thousands of them.
I'm out of the loop when it comes to Rivian but is there any reason to actually be more bullish regarding Rivian delivering vehicles earlier compared to the CT? At least Tesla has many years of experience manufacturing EVs in volume. I would imagine that this is going to be challenging for Rivian in the same way it was very challenging for Tesla when they started out?
 
  • Like
Reactions: HumanInput
I haven't seen any Rivian's on the road around here yet, but have seen 3 Mach-Es and far too many Tesla's to count. The Tesla's have grown like wildfire around here in the past year. A year ago I'd be lucky to see one a week. Now I see them almost every time I go out. The other day I parked next to 3 different Tesla's at places I stopped at running errands.

Tesla has the best track record of any electric automaker today, period. The most pure electric vehicles delivered, and the best selling model worldwide. How many vehicles has Rivian delivered? Lucid? Dyson? How many others that tried before and didn't make it? I sure hope they all succeed and give Tesla serious competition, but it's easy to be skeptical. I was skeptical of Tesla for the longest time. Rivian sure looks close to being able to deliver vehicles but it might not be easy to be successful. I'm also a bit skeptical that Cybertruck will be on time, wouldn't be surprised to see Austin churning out Y's for some time before the Cybertrucks start rolling out, and even then in low volume and only the highest cost variant for some time. We shall see...
 

tshields

Member
Global Vendor
Jun 15, 2020
707
265
MIAMI, FL
I haven't seen any Rivian's on the road around here yet, but have seen 3 Mach-Es and far too many Tesla's to count. The Tesla's have grown like wildfire around here in the past year. A year ago I'd be lucky to see one a week. Now I see them almost every time I go out. The other day I parked next to 3 different Tesla's at places I stopped at running errands.

Tesla has the best track record of any electric automaker today, period. The most pure electric vehicles delivered, and the best selling model worldwide. How many vehicles has Rivian delivered? Lucid? Dyson? How many others that tried before and didn't make it? I sure hope they all succeed and give Tesla serious competition, but it's easy to be skeptical. I was skeptical of Tesla for the longest time. Rivian sure looks close to being able to deliver vehicles but it might not be easy to be successful. I'm also a bit skeptical that Cybertruck will be on time, wouldn't be surprised to see Austin churning out Y's for some time before the Cybertrucks start rolling out, and even then in low volume and only the highest cost variant for some time. We shall see...
I totally agree! Tesla has set the gold standard of electric vehicles and have started years before the major car manmufacterors have developed their own. I have been inside the Audi E-Tron was not impressed at all. The interior was cool but the specs were mediocre such as its 222 mile range and its integration system and also not to mention its steep introductory price. I would wait a few more years before I would think about getting an electric car from a different manufacturer.
 
I'm out of the loop when it comes to Rivian but is there any reason to actually be more bullish regarding Rivian delivering vehicles earlier compared to the CT? At least Tesla has many years of experience manufacturing EVs in volume. I would imagine that this is going to be challenging for Rivian in the same way it was very challenging for Tesla when they started out?

Rivian has Amazon money.

Thats all they need to succeed. More EV's on the road is good for us all, it doesn't have to be Tesla VS Rivian, but rather Tesla, Rivian and all other all-Electric manufacturers VS ICE.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: SmartElectric
And yet he is the longest tenured CEO of any major automaker globally.

Better to shoot for Mars and only make it to the moon than not have tried at all.

Tesla already makes the world’s best cars, what more do you want?
Honesty, humility instead of arrogance and a customer service focus....but that's just me.
 

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top