Tesla AI Day - 2021

[powertoold]

Tesla's offline data processing is quite impressive. Here it looks like a single 20-second snapshot was used to reconstruct the world

I found this part too good to be true. I thought perhaps Tesla was generating the point cloud from their own simulation.

So I went looking for the locations of these clips on Google maps:

Location 1: Mexico City

https://www.google.com/maps/uv?pb=!1s0x85ce03e2009f579f%3A0xcb3d4c9d882785b2!3m1!7e115!4shttps%3A%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DZuhdoeweUMSJEaWk5CkCWA%26cb_client%3Dsearch.gws-prod.gps%26yaw%3D37.3625%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100%26w%3D346%26h%3D350!5sdulces%20y%20cigarros%20paola%20mexico%20-%20Google%20Search!15sCgIgAQ&imagekey=!1e2!2sZuhdoeweUMSJEaWk5CkCWA&hl=en

Location 2: Unknown

Unfortunately, I can't find the second location based on any identifiable stores or street signs. I have a feeling it's in the Bay Area because many of the road objects and signs look familiar.

 

[JupiterMan]

Yeah, million robotaxis by 2020!

timelines aside, Autonomy day and AI day were both fascinating - especially to see how solving the problem has evolved at Tesla over such a short time frame.

After Autonomy day, everyone was talking about vision vs LIDAR.... now it seems that conversation is largely over, it has moved on and it is now more about placement of the cameras for vision, resolution and processing power.

The question in my mind is now when (and not if) FSD/Robotaxis happen, if you choose not to see that future fine, but for me its a no brainer especially with V4 hardware, next generation cameras and DOJO around the corner in 2022 - as an Investor also this is potentially amazing for the share price..

In the meantime, this is just mind-blowing, and that Tesla share with us this inside glimpse is brilliant.

 

[emmz0r]

timelines aside, Autonomy day and AI day were both fascinating - especially to see how solving the problem has evolved at Tesla over such a short time frame.

They are making progress , but I thought they were at this level last year...

And I was not too far off with my prediction. It wasn't dumbed down as much as I thought, but it was fairly dumbed down:

I think it's gonna be a dumbed down version of Karpathy's talk that was a month ago or something. Oh, and empty promises

I am not sure they even promised anything this time, so joke's on me.

 

[AndreP]

Tesla will build FSD lot sooner than 20 years and. No, not going to build humanoid robot in a year, not even three years of Elon time.

FSD already exists, Level 5 autonomous vehicles are likely ~20 years away

Humanoid robots displacing any significant amount of complex physical labour, I'll be amazed if that happens in my lifetime and I'm 36

 

[qdeathstar]

“ But it’s really just gonna be like, can we take it from, say, for argument’s sake, 300% safer than a person to 1000% safer.”

Should said 1100%. Elon is slacking

 

[helvio]

Did I doze? I don't remember anything about HW4.0 - when was that mentioned?

 

[JupiterMan]

Did I doze? I don't remember anything about HW4.0 - when was that mentioned?

was mentioned first in Autonomy day in 2019, and yesterday Elon said would be with the cybertruck in 2022

 

[ucmndd]

So who all is looking forward to a Tesla Bot constantly walking around your house and abruptly stopping in random places for no reason?

 

[diplomat33]

I am curious if the "next gen cameras" coming with HW4 will just be better cameras or whether it will also mean additional cameras and/or different camera placement.

 

[Ruffles]

A couple of things I thought were cool were the analysis of smart summon and why it sucked and how they have improved predictions in vector space and how they showed a video clip going through the pipeline of getting auto labeled and simulated etc. I wonder if that is what happens to each clip an FSD beta tester submits by hitting the camera icon? Overall, very cool stuff. They have some scary smart people and I hope this helps them attract even more.

 

[diplomat33]

The presentations by Karpathy and his team were fantastic and super informative. Maybe AI Day should have stopped after Dojo. End on a high note as George Costanza would say. The Tesla Bot, especially the intro with the guy in spandex dancing, was a jump the shark moment IMO. It was a bit too far. The Tesla Bot sounds like classic Elon hype. The reality is probably that it will take longer than expected to actually work as advertised, as we've seen with FSD.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I'm likely missing something obvious, but I wonder about all the NN's focus on the short time horizon for an individual car. Isn't there a great opportunity for at least each Tesla car to share it's surrounding 3D 'image' to nearby Teslas?

For example, one Tesla could tell an oncoming Tesla "Watch for and avoid the child who's fallen off their bicycle at location x + y".

 

[Tim-in-CA]

I wonder how long it will take for the Tesla Bot to get to this level of sophistication? I will name mine Proteus 4

Demon Seed Trailer

 

[Mardak]

I found this part too good to be true.

Yeah, at an initial glance, the highly detailed recreated point cloud of the world seems to have x-ray capabilities seeing through walls, but the data includes the whole video from all cameras including views from the future, which have different perspectives to see "through" and "behind" other objects.

Here's the intersection from Mexico City where the car is making a left turn, so the far side of the building on the right is only briefly visible from the right pillar and getting further away from the left repeater, yet it can recreate the entryways on that building.

 

[Iain]

The presentations by Karpathy and his team were fantastic and super informative. Maybe AI Day should have stopped after Dojo. End on a high note as George Costanza would say. The Tesla Bot, especially the intro with the guy in spandex dancing, was a jump the shark moment IMO. It was a bit too far. The Tesla Bot sounds like classic Elon hype. The reality is probably that it will take longer than expected to actually work as advertised, as we've seen with FSD.

I thought Gordon Johnston had snuck in without an invite when i saw the Bot.

 

[Ben W]

The presentations by Karpathy and his team were fantastic and super informative. Maybe AI Day should have stopped after Dojo. End on a high note as George Costanza would say. The Tesla Bot, especially the intro with the guy in spandex dancing, was a jump the shark moment IMO. It was a bit too far. The Tesla Bot sounds like classic Elon hype. The reality is probably that it will take longer than expected to actually work as advertised, as we've seen with FSD.

Agreed the Dojo presentation was amazing. I think Tesla Bot is very much in keeping with Tesla's aesthetic, in that it goes for the sleekest form factor from day one (no protruding backpacks/wires/etc, just as the car has no LIDAR/antennas), and the tech follows within that constraint. The haiku method of tech development: impose the aesthetic constraints first, then see what you can do within that context. It seemed obvious to me that Tesla Bot will be pure blue-sky research and not an actual consumer or business product for a very long time; my guess would be at least a decade. It did invoke shades of "Klara and the Sun", a great book if you haven't read it. (On Obama's summer reading list.)

 

[DaveG_NJ]

The presentations by Karpathy and his team were fantastic and super informative. Maybe AI Day should have stopped after Dojo. End on a high note as George Costanza would say. The Tesla Bot, especially the intro with the guy in spandex dancing, was a jump the shark moment IMO. It was a bit too far. The Tesla Bot sounds like classic Elon hype. The reality is probably that it will take longer than expected to actually work as advertised, as we've seen with FSD.

Spot on. Pajama man was cringe-worthy. Imagine if Steve Jobs did his "One more thing..." and brought out a cardboard iPhone.

 

[Fidalgo]

Agreed the Dojo presentation was amazing. I think Tesla Bot is very much in keeping with Tesla's aesthetic, in that it goes for the sleekest form factor from day one (no protruding backpacks/wires/etc, just as the car has no LIDAR/antennas), and the tech follows within that constraint. The haiku method of tech development: impose the aesthetic constraints first, then see what you can do within that context. It seemed obvious to me that Tesla Bot will be pure blue-sky research and not an actual consumer or business product for a very long time; my guess would be at least a decade. It did invoke shades of "Klara and the Sun", a great book if you haven't read it. (On Obama's summer reading list.)

Another vote for “Klara and the Sun” on robots. And “Constance” for ethical dilemmas on human cloning.

 

[diplomat33]

Spot on. Pajama man was cringe-worthy. Imagine if Steve Jobs did his "One more thing..." and brought out a cardboard iPhone.

I'm surprised they did not have a basic prototype on stage. It would not have to be fully functional. But at least something real. "Pajama Man" was cringe-worthy indeed and it makes it look like the Tesla Bot is vaporware (which at this stage I guess it kinda is).

 

[powertoold]

Spot on. Pajama man was cringe-worthy. Imagine if Steve Jobs did his "One more thing..." and brought out a cardboard iPhone.

The pajama dance had me laughing out loud.