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Tesla AI day

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AI day #2 is one week today.

Possible bingo updates:

H/W 4.0 reveal and date for inclusion by model - 50% likelihood?
New H/W 4.0 cameras - 30% likelihood?
DOJO h/w reveal - 60% likelihood?
DOJO being used for FSD beta - 50% likelihood?
New DOJO chip reveal - 30% likelihood?
Bot reveal - 95% likelihood?
Snake charger reveal - 5% likelihood?
Supercharger V4 launch - 10% likelihood?
V2G reveal - 5% likelihood?
Tesla Network update - 30% likelihood?
Master Plan Part 3 reveal - 20% likelihood?
Robotaxi reveal - 10% likelihood?
Model 2 reveal - 5% likelihood?
Recruitment drive - 98% likelihood?
FSD timeline by end 2022 - 80% likelihood?
Opticaster / Autobidder updates - 30% likelihood?
Insurance update - 20% likelihood?

Additional from Dave and John:
Occupancy network
Roadster rides (possibly SpaceX package)

Also will likely be a V11 FSD timeline and details regarding one NN.
 

Imo this can be deconstructed. AI and robotics engineers knows what problems need to be solved. Tesla has solved some of them or have ideas that will lead to solving them in the near future.

So what needs to be solved?
1. Perception, ie how the the world around the robot looks like
2. High level reference, ie what is the task that is to be done, for example "Locate the box, pick it up, put it down in a different place"
3. Finding the optimal high level control sequence to perform the task, ie how should the joints move at each time step to accomplish this goal
4. Setting the low level controller ie the voltage etc to get the joints to the desired angles(has been solved)

1. Is just FSD stack but for a different 3D environment

2. Can be split into to parts.
2.a Human having a nice interface to tell the robot what's to be done
2.b Robot interpreting and generating a sequence of tasks that accomplishes this goal

3. The cost function from previous AI day extended, like an MPC but for a much more nonlinear system using AI to evaluate the cost function and search heuristic.

4. Just normal stuff like inverse kinematics, PID, MPC, optimal control etc. Everyone already knows how to do this, Spacex has mastered this and Tesla knows this very well.
 

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explains the panel gaps. :)
 
I look forward to seeing that long video of Tesla bot doing things they will show after AI day.

Think HW4 is a bit hyped up. HW3 is fine, HW4 can handle slightly larger neural networks so performance on some tasks might go up a bit, but software improvements will likely have a larger effect so that's more important but not as easy to imagine.

Dojo 2 is interesting, will be interesting to hear what their plans are beyond 100x in 2years. And we will see how the industry shapes up with AMD entering it in force now and China are probably not super happy about being left behind, so we will see what they do.

I expect a lot of AI day 2023 will be about scale. Scaling the infrastructure, scaling autolabel, scaling their neural networks, scaling bot production, scaling bot learning etc.
 
I look forward to seeing that long video of Tesla bot doing things they will show after AI day.

Think HW4 is a bit hyped up. HW3 is fine, HW4 can handle slightly larger neural networks so performance on some tasks might go up a bit, but software improvements will likely have a larger effect so that's more important but not as easy to imagine.

Dojo 2 is interesting, will be interesting to hear what their plans are beyond 100x in 2years. And we will see how the industry shapes up with AMD entering it in force now and China are probably not super happy about being left behind, so we will see what they do.

I expect a lot of AI day 2023 will be about scale. Scaling the infrastructure, scaling autolabel, scaling their neural networks, scaling bot production, scaling bot learning etc.

Maybe Tesla Bot will be able to drive the Tesla cars and we can forget about FSD. ;)
 
Maybe Tesla Bot will be able to drive the Tesla cars and we can forget about FSD. ;)
Robots did that 8 years ago:

I wonder when a Tesla bot will be able to drive a car better than a human. Don't think it's that much more difficult than making FSD super safe. Sure its vision will not be as overkill as HW4 sensor suite, but my vision is not that great either and I can do a decent job of it most of the time.
 
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