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Discussion in 'Model X' started by Darryl, Feb 7, 2017.
I'm still trying to digest this. Maybe no more increases in 2017?? They can't just stop there. It's not just the enthusiasts but road trippers that need to be able to travel 350miles or more on a single charge.
That's great. I was one of the first to get my order in for the 100D, and having that surpassed in a couple months, maybe even before I get my car, would be a bummer. My Model X will have to be made passé by summer for some other reason.
Nice attitude you have there. No one can get something better if you don't get it. That's a good way to go through life.
This thread should be merged since there's already one discussing this tweet:
No Plans to take X, S (or 3) above 100kWh
The title to the other thread is also more accurate.
It has a lot more to do with not looking forward to buyer's remorse than what anyone else can get. Sorry you took offense.
Think about it:
Future 100 kWh batteries will likely get smaller, cheaper, and lighter.
The Tesla consumer vehicles that they go into will get lighter and more energy efficient.
There will likely be more superchargers that charge future Teslas faster.
So going much beyond 100 kWh and much more than 330 mile range will reach a point of diminishing returns for most consumers.
Or perhaps Elon has learned to not Osborne Tesla by pre-announcing every desirable update. Hooray!
I take this kind of thing with a grain of salt.
In the past they've said no plans, or no changes, but then bam.
Now obviously it can't be physically as big as the current 100kwh.
But, battery technology improves every year so who knows what will happen. Competition can spur a race on specs.
I am hoping this just means that they will use technology to get more out of current batteries. Faster charging and more miles. I think 350 miles will probably be pushing it for all models.
Battery packs larger than 100 kWh are not needed for the S and X. Tesla Supercharger V3 will likely allow you to charge a pack from near zero charge to 90% in less than 5 minutes. I expect the performance versions of the S and X will get V3 supercharging around August. The timing for other models may depend on overall demand. I think small battery packs and the Model 3 won't get it until sometime in 2018. The usefulness of V3 supercharging depends on how fast Tesla can retrofit the current Supercharger stations and add new ones.
A number of factors that are contrary to your argument are HERE
What's more there's practically zero chance current models will charge at the rates you suggest even if V3 superchargers sporting drastically higher power levels hinted at by Elon are released. The conductors in the car simply won't support it.
+1.....telling public another upgrade coming = delayed sales.....
The model x could use a 200kwh battery, I don't know how people think that 100 is plenty for everyone... I have a 90d x with 22's, I have never one time managed to get 200 miles in a single charge and that's freeway driving only and by myself in so cal. Imagine with a family of 4 plus gear and cold or windy? I'd get 140-160 miles tops. I'm super disappointed so far going from my model s which I could always get 250 in. I know the wheels are a huge deal and I am changing them to 20's asap.
But for real the x could easily have double the range and that would be about right for trips or towing anything etc..
100kwh with the new cells will help a lot.
X with smaller tires are able to easily go 200+ miles in very hot conditions....I've accomplished that several times on I75/I95 trips. However, directionally I agree that a bigger battery would be beneficial.
this is making me feel a lot more better about spending the money to go from 60D to 100D. peace of mind of knowing I can get at least 200+ miles on a charge in any condition.
This is the plan until it changes tomorrow. I will be shocked if a larger battery doesn't arrive in the s/x after the new battery cells are in full production. It is inconsistent with Tesla's history to think that a larger battery pack is not coming.
Elon is a master word-smith. "No plans to take..." just means right now there are no working plans to increase the battery sizes. He didn't say "never", just that they're working on other great things for S,3,X and sometimes Y.
I'm sure two years from now, with the GF pumping out cheaper 2170 batteries, that they'll revisit the 100kWh limit, especially for the X where people are towing stuff and need extra range (or more appropriately, when Elon takes his family on a trip in the X and he wants more X range).
I tend to believe that Tesla will not go much above 100 kwh because it is energy inefficient to carry around all that battery weight. Furthermore, doubling the battery size (eg. 200 kwh) doesn't come close to doubling the range due to that extra weight. In fact, at some point, adding more batteries should actually decrease range.
It would seem to me that Tesla is focusing on improving charging speeds. If it only takes 5 minutes to get enough charge to get to the next SuperCharger, then it solves all problems (once there are enough SuperChargers).
People aren't constantly asking for larger and larger gas tanks. They have quick, readily available refueling, so there's no real need. That's the problem that needs to be solved, IMHO.
If you are willing to stop every 2 hours of driving under some circumstances. And there are a number of superchargers that are ~10 minutes off a highway. So some of these "5 minute" charging stops could be 20-25 minutes...