Tesla Announced 100kWh will be the largest battery for X and S

[AnxietyRanger]

It has a lot more to do with not looking forward to buyer's remorse than what anyone else can get.

In that case I hope you get through life without owning a computer/smartphone.

This has been covered before. Buy a newly released iPhone or a MacBook Pro and it will be the latest and greatest quite likely for 12 months of your purchase. You get it in days or weeks tops, and the release cycle is many months long.

Buy a newly released Tesla and it will likely be not the latest by the time you get it, as the latest and greatest Tesla changes several times every quarter these days - and on the other hand your delivery can take 2-4 months (even longer overseas)...

So the buyer's remorse fear is quite real with Tesla, which is why they kind of keep perpetually Osborning themselves in the eyes of people who follow them closely. It never seems to be a good time to jump in and buy a Tesla.

If and when one must buy a Tesla, looking at the tealeaves for that important-to-you upgrade is plain smart. We know new cell batteries are coming, we are pretty sure a HUD is coming and a new entertainment system. We also expect a new interior may be along shortly.

If these things matter to you, do not buy now. Definitely do not believe Tesla the battery available now would somehow remain the greatest for Model S/X for any significant period of time. While anything is possible, it is not likely to remain the best for very long.

 

[lklundin]

This has been covered before. Buy a newly released iPhone or a MacBook Pro and it will be the latest and greatest quite likely for 12 months of your purchase. You get it in days or weeks tops, and the release cycle is many months long.

Buy a newly released Tesla and it will likely be not the latest by the time you get it, as the latest and greatest Tesla changes several times every quarter these days - and on the other hand your delivery can take 2-4 months (even longer overseas)...

OK, I could not care less about any argument based on products from Apple, basically a fascist company that wants to control what you think and experience, and overcharge you along the way.

But I do see a problem with paying 100k$ (or €) for a car that just like a computer/smartphone largely evolves exponentially, with parts even following Moore's law, since few will be able to replace a car every couple of years (apart from the fact that buying a new car every couple of years defeats Tesla's implied mission of doing something good for the planet).

I much hope that Tesla realizes this for a problem, and that they will solve it by not being like conventional car makers, who just go "If you want the latest from us, go and buy a whole new car".

Instead I hope Tesla will offer not only their software upgrades for free (which is already great), but also offer (for a price) upgrades to the battery, ideally the sensor platform (since this also evolves quickly) and certainly the processing units, especially those for the sensors.

But there is naturally a trade-off since they don't want to make the car too expensive, just so it can support future, potential upgrades.

The fact that they do not collect all improvements into a one year release cycle, I really don't accept as a problem, instead you just get a few things sooner. And just like a computer, your car does not get slower just because a faster one comes into existence.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@lklundin

I don't use Apple products anymore either, but that was not the point. It was a, IMO, quite representative and well known example or computing and mobile progress. Most of their competitors follow similar patterns of roughly annual product updates. (OK, Apple is even more lazy with Mac updates, but iPhone is predictable.)

Tesla follows no pattern expect multiple product updates every quarter are likely these days. Combined with long delivery times (that may span several such changes), buying the latest and greatest Tesla is often simply impossible. Especially for those who already have an older Tesla, this continuous Osborne loop may well cause delays in upgrades because finding an opportune moment is hard.

I do think Tesla might be wise to go back to the way they launched AP1/P85D/85D. That setup was the king of the fill for, I think at least half a year. That was at least somewhat reasonable from the buyers remorse perspective.

 

[vandacca]

I agree that if you want to have the latest and greatest, it's very difficult/impossible to do with a Tesla.

However, for the remaining 99% of us, once you have a Tesla, these individual upgrades doesn't really matter.

My brother has an early S without folding/heated mirrors, AP1, next-gen seats, etc. He has no intention of upgrading anytime soon.
I've had my X for about 7 months and I'm already behind on AP2.0 and 100kwh battery, among many other minor tweaks. I'm totally fine with that and will wait a few years before considering upgrading.

Prior to getting my X I was very anxious and wanted to wait as long as possible for production, with the hopes of getting AP2 and a bigger battery. But since getting my X, I'm much more relaxed and happy with my vehicle.

I think most people will feel this way...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

vandacca: I actually think you and your brother (well, people somewhat like you) could be the prime example why Tesla might be smart to reconsider their current approach. They are simply not generating those "really, really want that" moments as things stand.

With the lack of grouping/pacing the upgrades, it is one continuous stream of progress (sprinkled with the occasional sets backwards to muddy the waters further) with very few such moments that push people over the edge - and on the other hand, always that nagging feeling that there is something new around the corner, so better wait. And if you waited too long, they took some feature away, so why buy now when you missed it anyway...

There are plenty of people who buy the new version of their favorite car when that facelift and that new model hits the streets, because the manufacturers usually align most improvements with them. And even in off-years, model year concept gives some guidance. But with Tesla where is the similar imperative?

It is like that frog in the slowly heating water... no boiling water sensation, so they boil to death eventually. There is no "jump now" moment. I remember you musing AP2, perhaps P100D, but then things dropping piece by piece that way... why pull the trigger now?

A lot of people pulled the trigger when AP1/P85D/85D came. It was one of the few really good buying opportunities Tesla managed to create. And then it was back to muddying the waters again.

Of course this does not apply to all people (then again, for many of these people those upgrades don't matter that much anyway). But for those who do care, grouping upgrades might be smart.

 

[vandacca]

vandacca: I actually think you and your brother (well, people somewhat like you) could be the prime example why Tesla might be smart to reconsider their current approach. They are simply not generating those "really, really want that" moments as things stand.

With the lack of grouping/pacing the upgrades, it is one continuous stream of progress (sprinkled with the occasional sets backwards to muddy the waters further) with very few such moments that push people over the edge - and on the other hand, always that nagging feeling that there is something new around the corner, so better wait. And if you waited too long, they took some feature away, so why buy now when you missed it anyway...

There are plenty of people who buy the new version of their favorite car when that facelift and that new model hits the streets, because the manufacturers usually align most improvements with them. And even in off-years, model year concept gives some guidance. But with Tesla where is the similar imperative?

It is like that frog in the slowly heating water... no boiling water sensation, so they boil to death eventually. There is no "jump now" moment. I remember you musing AP2, perhaps P100D, but then things dropping piece by piece that way... why pull the trigger now?

A lot of people pulled the trigger when AP1/P85D/85D came. It was one of the few really good buying opportunities Tesla managed to create. And then it was back to muddying the waters again.

Of course this does not apply to all people (then again, for many of these people those upgrades don't matter that much anyway). But for those who do care, grouping upgrades might be smart.

I hear what you're saying, and while I'm sure there are plenty of people who must have the latest and greatest at all times, I'm thinking that the cost of a Tesla reduces that number significantly. It's much different when the vehicle is a $30,000 vehicle.

Me and my brother may be more practical than the average, but at some point all these little upgrades do have an impact and it will trigger an upgrade (even in me). It's just that at this cost, one must be more practical.

For example, my brother was seriously considering an upgrade when he had a late night drive back home. AP would have come in handy, but right now he might be moving to Europe within the next 12 months, so everything is on hold.

With me, I'm looking for AP2.0 to be fully ready (both hardware and software), next gen batteries and HUD. That might be enough for me to trigger an upgrade. Also, I wouldn't mind a quad motor design, but I think that might be wishful thinking on my part.

So, I don't think Tesla needs to reconsider too much right now. There is still a huge potential market, without requiring their existing base to upgrade constantly. I don't think we're anywhere close to the iPad saturation level yet.

 

[Super_Popular]

You guys should have been around when the D's where announced, so many people that placed orders right before go so screwed. It's the way of Tesla. Things are constantly being updated. You will never own the latest and greatest.

 

[JHWJR]

In that case I hope you get through life without owning a computer/smartphone.

Apple hasn't really improved upon my 6 Plus in 2 years, so I'm good.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

You guys should have been around when the D's where announced, so many people that placed orders right before go so screwed. It's the way of Tesla. Things are constantly being updated. You will never own the latest and greatest.

Quite the contrary. Not only was I around, I took delivery of my Classic P85 two weels after the AP1/D launch due to international delivery times.

But even so, I still feel Tesla did right with the grouping of AP1/P85D/85D. That was a great upgrade opportunity because those cars remained the latest and the greatest at least longer than their delivery times. And multiple upgrades were grouped into one.

This piecemeal upgrade thing Tesla has been using since even for major upgrades (I know they've always done that for minor ones) lacks such clear upgrade points.

Think of it this way: what if instead of releases over four quarters, Tesla would have grouped Model S facelift, AP2 and P100D/100D as one release. That might have been IMO a good idea for both customer satisfaction and marketing in the long run.

The current policy keeps osborning things constantly for those who follow Tesla.

I agree you will never own the latest and greatest with Tesla and I think that is becoming a problem for them.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I hear what you're saying, and while I'm sure there are plenty of people who must have the latest and greatest at all times, I'm thinking that the cost of a Tesla reduces that number significantly. It's much different when the vehicle is a $30,000 vehicle.

Me and my brother may be more practical than the average, but at some point all these little upgrades do have an impact and it will trigger an upgrade (even in me). It's just that at this cost, one must be more practical.

For example, my brother was seriously considering an upgrade when he had a late night drive back home. AP would have come in handy, but right now he might be moving to Europe within the next 12 months, so everything is on hold.

With me, I'm looking for AP2.0 to be fully ready (both hardware and software), next gen batteries and HUD. That might be enough for me to trigger an upgrade. Also, I wouldn't mind a quad motor design, but I think that might be wishful thinking on my part.

So, I don't think Tesla needs to reconsider too much right now. There is still a huge potential market, without requiring their existing base to upgrade constantly. I don't think we're anywhere close to the iPad saturation level yet.

Demand is another question. It does not seem very inherent anymore, using artificial demand levers every quarter suggest some demand issues. They have not been meeting their optimistic guidance.

Maybe those quarterly product upgrades are in the end hurting more than helping. It is one theory.

Because the other way to look at your point of cars at this price being unreasonable upgrades is this: when one can not reasonably upgrade again soon after, waiting for that perfect buying opportunity is even more important. To get it right ghe first time. (For those who care about such things.)

 

[vandacca]

Demand is another question. It does not seem very inherent anymore, using artificial demand levers every quarter suggest some demand issues. They have not been meeting their optimistic guidance.

Maybe those quarterly product upgrades are in the end hurting more than helping. It is one theory.

Because the other way to look at your point of cars at this price being unreasonable upgrades is this: when one can not reasonably upgrade again soon after, waiting for that perfect buying opportunity is even more important. To get it right ghe first time. (For those who care about such things.)

With regards to demand, I think a big part of it is the Osborne effect due to the Model-3. I think most people are waiting for the cheaper Model-3.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

With regards to demand, I think a big part of it is the Osborne effect due to the Model-3. I think most people are waiting for the cheaper Model-3.

I have a very hard time seeing Model 3 and Model X are targeting the same audience in any significant numbers.

Model S and Model 3, sure (as many Model S buyers are buying above usual preference due to lack of choice), but Model X? I'm sure there is a small crossover audience there too, but Model Y is probably too far away to affect them much...

 

[Super_Popular]

It's to bad the 90 cannot be upgraded to a 100

 

[vandacca]

I have a very hard time seeing Model 3 and Model X are targeting the same audience in any significant numbers.

Model S and Model 3, sure (as many Model S buyers are buying above usual preference due to lack of choice), but Model X? I'm sure there is a small crossover audience there too, but Model Y is probably too far away to affect them much...

Yes, you're probably right about the audiences being different. The cross-over (pardon the pun) between these two groups is probably very small.

I also agree that the Model-X should have out-sold the Model-S and since it hasn't that would seem to indicate some issue(s). It's possible that demand isn't there and/or Tesla is having issues getting production rates up.

 

[scaesare]

I also agree that the Model-X should have out-sold the Model-S...

Out of curiosity, what do you base this on?

 

[vandacca]

Out of curiosity, what do you base this on?

Just based on SUV vs Sedan sales numbers. US/Canadian consumers love their SUVs.

 

[scaesare]

That's certainly true.

Although I'm not sure the X really hits the heart of that segment:

- It's not styled as many of the more popular SUV's. It's a bit more of a crossover look. Reminds me of a BMW X6, which I don't see a lot of

- The drive suspension doesn't really target off-road usage

-The range is still a bit on the low side as compared to may SUV's

As such, I'm not sure the X not outselling the S really indicates issues. I'm not sure that even Tesla ever really expected the X to be doing so at this point.

 

[WarpedOne]

Why the rush?
Tesla is still ramping production, X has only seen what 2 quarters of full production?

In a year we will be able to tell if X is more or less successful then S, today such judgment is premature.

 

[vandacca]

Why the rush?
Tesla is still ramping production, X has only seen what 2 quarters of full production?

In a year we will be able to tell if X is more or less successful then S, today such judgment is premature.

I too wondered if Tesla is still in "ramp-up" mode. Technically, the X has been in production for ~16 months, if you take Sept. 2015 as when deliveries started (personally, I consider Dec 2015 as the start of real deliveries).

How long is this ramp going to take???

 

[WarpedOne]

Ramp will be over when Q on Q production stays similar for at least 3Q. And then repeats in forth Q.