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Tesla Announces Q4 Units: ~1,400-1,700 Model 3s produced in December

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Would you rather Elon over promise and under deliver or under promise and over deliver? I'm happy he's playing it rather conservative right now.
I 100% agree that I'd rather have him under promise and over deliver. It's just there comes a point when they need to be producing in volume. We can't be going through this quarter after quarter.

I'm always optimistic that even if Tesla misses numbers, they are doing it in the right way and not taking shortcuts just to appease some short term investors. But there is a lot riding on them producing these in volume. I'm confident they can do it based on what I've read here and other places, but only time will tell for sure. They really need to meet that 2500 per week by the end of Q1.
 
I have no faith left. Why would I?


Elon said they were aiming for end of 2017 launch with July 1st being impossible supplier deadline. Also that the production ramp S curve is unpredictable. Looks like they are right on track. I'm not holding it against him that he tried to Maximize the ramp before Xmas, but is 'only'at 1000 per week run rate now. In a few months it'll be where we want it.
 
I feel like there's a part of the report that keeps getting overlooked in these comments.

"In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2018.

"Q4 production totaled 24,565 vehicles, of which 2,425 were Model 3." (Bolded text is my addition)

They are still behind where Elon stated the curve would be, but is it as far as some of the other posts are stating?

I will be returning my smart EV within 2 weeks, having extended its lease by 3 months. I'm hoping I will be driving my 3 by the end of February/beginning of March (where Troy's estimator currently has me).
 
I feel like there's a part of the report that keeps getting overlooked in these comments.

"In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2018.

"Q4 production totaled 24,565 vehicles, of which 2,425 were Model 3." (Bolded text is my addition)

They are still behind where Elon stated the curve would be, but is it as far as some of the other posts are stating?

I will be returning my smart EV within 2 weeks, having extended its lease by 3 months. I'm hoping I will be driving my 3 by the end of February/beginning of March (where Troy's estimator currently has me).
I think people from the middle of the country out are way harder hit than CA people. CA first day people probably aren't hit that much at all. I think Q1 will pretty much cover all of us, even if they don't ramp that much further from 1k/wk.
 
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These are great numbers from my perspective. I had concerns that Tesla would encounter serious production problems and not be able to ramp up production, especially after reports in Oct that certain parts were being made by hand. It makes me laugh when people expect Tesla to meet production dates and targets. They're called "targets" for a reason -- hitting the bulls-eye is great but sure seemed unlikely to me, especially given Tesla's track record.



Someone believed those dates? Tesla still says my Model 3 will be "late 2018" on my order page (current owner on west coast of Canada), but I read it as "mid 2019 at the earliest". This is Tesla folks, a new car company flying by the seat of its pants - and Elon's overly optimistic "man will live on mars soon" pants to boot. People who need certainty should certainly buy an Audi, which has been around since the 1930's, and doesn't BS us (well except that VW owns Audi and VW intentionally lied to regulators, and created firmware the intention of which was to trick them -- to poison us for more for profits and greed).



Seriously? You think Tesla could fold so you're waiting to buy? It's long past that, at least in my view. If you look at how Sirius flirted with bankruptcy after having so much (but much less than Tesla) invested, there's no doubt Tesla would be bought out long before it gets as close to bankruptcy as Sirius did. I was concerned about Tesla folding over 4 years ago when I ordered but I still did and I am sure glad I didn't wait and watch. Then again, I bought a lifetime sub and SIRI stock when it was near bankruptcy. Some things are just too good to fail, at least in my view.
These are great numbers from my perspective. I had concerns that Tesla would encounter serious production problems and not be able to ramp up production, especially after reports in Oct that certain parts were being made by hand. It makes me laugh when people expect Tesla to meet production dates and targets. They're called "targets" for a reason -- hitting the bulls-eye is great but sure seemed unlikely to me, especially given Tesla's track record.



Someone believed those dates? Tesla still says my Model 3 will be "late 2018" on my order page (current owner on west coast of Canada), but I read it as "mid 2019 at the earliest". This is Tesla folks, a new car company flying by the seat of its pants - and Elon's overly optimistic "man will live on mars soon" pants to boot. People who need certainty should certainly buy an Audi, which has been around since the 1930's, and doesn't BS us (well except that VW owns Audi and VW intentionally lied to regulators, and created firmware the intention of which was to trick them -- to poison us for more for profits and greed).



Seriously? You think Tesla could fold so you're waiting to buy? It's long past that, at least in my view. If you look at how Sirius flirted with bankruptcy after having so much (but much less than Tesla) invested, there's no doubt Tesla would be bought out long before it gets as close to bankruptcy as Sirius did. I was concerned about Tesla folding over 4 years ago when I ordered but I still did and I am sure glad I didn't wait and watch. Then again, I bought a lifetime sub and SIRI stock when it was near bankruptcy. Some things are just too good to fail, at least in my view.


No. We can't afford a new car until 2020. But if I want to buy a new Tesla 3 in spring 2020 I suspect I will have to order the year before. Having said that it will give us a chance to insure that the car looks like it is on good footing before we spend 50 grand on a car that will have to serve us for 8 to 10 years of fastly approaching retirement. We are huge tesla fans but it is on the upper limit of our affordability. When you are in your mid fifties you try not to owe anybody anything and try not to make financial booboos. :)
 
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I guess I can kiss my November 2017 - January 2018 estimate good bye... I think Midwest will take at least couple more months to start getting any reasonable numbers. Should look if I-Pace and Audi e-tron are taking reservations - already have a reservation for Mission E.
 
I think people from the middle of the country out are way harder hit than CA people. CA first day people probably aren't hit that much at all. I think Q1 will pretty much cover all of us, even if they don't ramp that much further from 1k/wk.

I think this is correct, especially considering the delivery centers they have already invested in here. It makes me really glad I took a few hours to go stand in line on 2016-03-31.
 
my lease is up in may. So a further delay of a month or two is going to make it very difficult for me.
Most leasing companies are happy to extend your lease at the end for the same monthly amount. I've done this at least 4 times. Just call and ask. After all, they're getting a higher monthly payment from you than they'd have gotten had you originally done a longer lease, so it works out better for them to extend your lease for as long as you like. (Yes, your residual will get recalculated if that matters to you)
 
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I 100% agree that I'd rather have him under promise and over deliver. It's just there comes a point when they need to be producing in volume. We can't be going through this quarter after quarter.
I'm not worried about the numbers, in fact I think they look good, because model 3 is 18 months ahead of the schedule originally set by Elon (mid-2019). We will all be getting our cars soon, except those who are bailing for an inferior EV or ICE, and all the angst will soon be forgotten when we step into the FUTURE. Revolutions don't happen without a commitment to patience and perseverance.
 
I have to wait another year at least in Canada. By that time our current Escape will be done with the 0% 60 month loan. We get by Ok with the one car for now (always had 2 or 3 before). I don’t mind the wait and looking forward to additional interiors (white) Dual and anything else that come up.
P.S. Winter wheel/tire packages available in the Tesla Store for the 3. Good pricing.
 
I think this is correct, especially considering the delivery centers they have already invested in here. It makes me really glad I took a few hours to go stand in line on 2016-03-31.
I wonder if delivery centers like MDR are just a CA thing, and most other places will just get delivered to the closest Tesla location.

And 100% about waiting for 4 hours 3-31. If 4 hours = 3 months, than that's a pretty good deal.
 
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